Appreciation Of Raw Materials And Appreciation Of Guangdong's Exporters

On September 30th, the yuan continued against the US dollar. appreciation One piece. Exit Clothes earn 5 cents, 10 cents or more. Although a box of cartons of goods still flows to all parts of the world, Zhou Xiaonan, deputy general manager of Ningbo Huamei line Co., Ltd. is very anxious.

In an interview with the first financial daily, Zhou Xiaonan said that this year is the most difficult year for him to engage in foreign trade business for decades. Even after the financial crisis hit last year, it has not been so difficult. Cotton prices have frequently refreshed their historical highs since September. When the cost of raw materials rises, the appreciation of the renminbi is undoubtedly worse.

"In order to digest costs, we must raise prices to overseas purchasers. This year, we have increased prices to overseas purchasers repeatedly. Many products have risen by 20%. It is difficult for buyers to make a higher price. Cotton prices all over the world are rising, and customers can relatively accept the price increase in raw materials. Order Transfer to other countries or regions. " Zhou Xiaonan said.

Even if orders are not transferred, they are also chewing hard bones. This is the feeling of Mr. Lee, a big toy exporter in Guangdong. The export orders on hand, asking grandpa to tell Grandma, and relying on years of network relationship, only reluctantly let the toy factory finish production and rush to ship during this period. Many toy factories in the partners have been closed down or ready to close because they can not afford the cost pressure. The toy factories that are still surviving continue to rise in price, while overseas buyers are biting on the price so that the profit of his middlemen has been as thin as paper, and the continued appreciation of the RMB will probably take away the last profit. Recently, some customers began to discuss the orders next year, and Mr. Li did not dare to rush to take orders.

After the Christmas shopping this year, how do we take the next step? Many Chinese exporters are puzzled. A number of export enterprises said in an interview with our reporter that as export risks increased, orders need to be taken care of, and orders for next year are not yet available.

Since June this year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated by nearly 2%. In September 21st, the RMB exchange rate rose to 6.7079, creating the highest value since the reform. In the eyes of the United States, the so-called weak appreciation of the renminbi has been overwhelming for Chinese export enterprises. On September 22nd, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council said in New York that the continued appreciation of RMB 20% would cause serious unemployment in China and cause social unrest.

Guangdong Guangdong new trade group initially estimated that, in the second half of this year, the impact of RMB appreciation, the export volume in the second half of last year is assumed to be 920 million US dollars in the second half of the year. According to the calculation of RMB to us dollar 1:6.82, if the RMB appreciates 2% in the second half of the year, the gross margin will be reduced by 2% directly, and the profit of the company will be reduced by 126 million yuan, even if the cost and price of other production factors are unchanged. Exit Business is close to deficit.

The Guangdong Silk Textile Group has also conducted an exchange rate risk assessment for the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar in the second half of this year. If we predict the export trade volume of US $1 billion 600 million in the second half of the year, we will calculate the RMB exchange rate within the range of 3%, even if the buyer, the seller and the factory three undertake the exchange rate cost, which will also affect the group's income of 56 million yuan.

Wu Zhenchang, chairman of Guangzhou Chuangxin footwear industry, also said that although the company took advantage of financial instruments to adopt long-term lock in measures to avoid exchange rate risk, the impact was relatively small. However, the appreciation of RMB increased the purchasing cost of overseas consumers, while exports and orders were good and bad.

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with reporters that the appreciation of the renminbi will strike China's exports. As a result, these production will not return to the United States, but will shift to other developing countries. The employment and trade deficit in the US can not be improved at all. However, some of the US's most powerful competitors are weakened, and for these forces, this is what they want.