Chen Yuyu: There Are Political Mixed Up In The United States. I Have New Meaning And Regiment.
U.S.A
House of Representatives passed 29 days
The exchange rate reform promotes the fair trade act.
The purpose is to impose special tariffs on countries that underestimate the exchange rate of their currencies.
The main idea is that if a country's currency is intentionally underestimated, for example, a government's intervention in the foreign exchange market for 18 consecutive months, the United States can declare its manipulation of the exchange rate and impose high tariffs on the imported goods, thereby counteracting it.
Undervaluation of exchange rate
The advantages it brings.
The reasons why the United States did so are as follows:
1, the unemployment rate in the US is very high because China's exports have squeezed out many jobs.
Therefore, we must increase exports to China and reduce imports from China.
This is the slogan of a political mixture of fooling the American working class.
Basically, it is equivalent to Lang Lang, a teacher in the United States.
They scare the Americans, saying that the Chinese will take away all their jobs and starve them to death.
2, the United States implemented a fiscal stimulus package, which increased the total demand of the United States, but also increased the demand for imports of Chinese products, thus making the US stimulus plan increase employment in China.
This group of political mixed people say that this is the reason why the stimulus policy is not effective enough.
3, the United States has evaluated the idea of Krugman as a proxy for forcing China to increase its exchange rate so as to increase US exports and reduce US imports.
I remember that there are several heroes in the research center of the State Council. What did we say a few days ago that our holdings of US Treasury bonds were trillions of dollars.
The American mixed up still considered the threat.
They think: first, the Central Bank of China does not hold treasury bonds, and no other suitable assets can be held.
Holding cash in US dollars is a financial trouble.
To hold shares in the United States, the United States said it welcomed the move to raise American stocks and boost confidence in the US capital market.
It's not the right way to buy gold.
I remember that the Academy of social sciences has someone who thinks he is smart and appealed to the media.
The Federal Reserve did not sell gold in n. It should be forced by the crisis to sell gold to us.
This is a patient with gold disease.
Even if you accept the advice of the patient, 8000 tons of Federal Reserve gold will be sold to you, that is, $about 200000000000, which does not solve the problem of allocation of foreign exchange reserves of 20000 billion dollars!
The so-called "financial atomic bomb", which is holding trillions of dollars in assets in your hands, is unable to destroy the United States. The new meaning and the regiment remember to jump around! Selling the US dollar treasury bonds vigorously and holding the US dollar cash will not affect the US. The short-term interest rate in the us will remain at 0, because the Federal Reserve can keep the short-term interest rate low.
China's sell-off of treasury bonds, however, may slightly lift the long-term interest rate in the US, which is slightly unfavorable to the US's economic recovery, but the long-term interest rate in the US mainly depends on the short-term interest rate in the future. Our selling can have limited impact.
In the last resort, the American mixer will worry that you do not hold dollar bonds, but sell them to buy euros or yen in US dollars.
Ha-ha.
The American mixture said the United States was happier.
Please ask China to sell US dollar assets in the international foreign exchange market to buy yen or euro assets, that is, suppress the US dollar in the international market, lift the Japanese yen and the euro, and China helps the us do what the United States wants to do and cannot do.
4, China has fought trade with the United States, the United States has imposed taxes on imports from China, and China has imposed taxes on imports from the United States.
As a result, the growth rate of trade between the two countries decreased.
The American mix says, we are not afraid, nor are we afraid of China's new meaning and regiment.
5, the new meaning and regiment of the Chinese Empire are far more powerful than the American political mixture.
What Mr. Lu heard just now in Phoenix Satellite TV said that limiting the export of rare earths; foreign countries buying China's Coke would be settled in Renminbi; foreign countries should buy gold from our cattle.
I heard this, speechless.
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Then, if we are neither the idea of mixed politics in the United States nor the idea of China's new meaning and regiment, how can we deal with this problem?
1, they play the tricks of political mixture. We have new meanings and regiments.
Let the Americans know that you are a fool, I have new meaning and regiment, more ruthless than you, more stupid than you.
When narrow roads meet, fools win.
The political mixture of the United States will return to the right track in order to avoid itself and the new meaning and regiment.
For example, whether the Senate will pass, not necessarily. Even if the Senate passes, whether the president will veto it is still to be reconsidered.
Even if the president did not veto, how to define the undervaluation of the exchange rate in the process of implementation?
2, I wrote the strategy of RMB appreciation. Professor Li Yining also said that the RMB appreciation strategy is a small step.
The appreciation in 5 years is 20%, an average appreciation of 3.7% per year.
This is almost the least harmful step that is in line with China's long-term interest.
"Friendly states" is also almost satisfactory.
The so-called speculative capital is not a worry.
You are a capital control country, and your control causes an extra 3.7% extra cost per year for investment capital, which is a supernatural thing.
There won't be a Soros sniper fight.
It's just a bit of a chicken.
3, in the context of appreciation, it is really important to enhance the marketization of exchange rate decisions and enhance their resilience.
It is better to be forced to adopt a floating exchange rate than to depreciate.
4,
China
Long term demand for foreign exchange assets exists, given the lack of aging and social security system in China.
However, China's holdings of foreign assets should be mainly in the form of private investment by the public rather than concentrated in the people's Bank of China.
Such a large-scale public holding of foreign exchange assets will mature in the next 5 years, provided that the RMB exchange rate has appreciated by more than 20% at that time.
At that time, the public will find that it is acceptable to invest $1 to 5 yuan in exchange for us dollar assets.
This private overseas investment has no demand at the current exchange rate level.
5, the United States must strive for "harmony through struggle".
Foreign trade is important to China and important to the United States.
The tricks of the American political mixture are nothing more than a means of increasing trade wars for the administration of the United States.
6, borrow Li Denghui's clown to say "Ann!". The so-called American political mixture is thunderstorm and heavy rain.
And even with raindrops, our new meaning and regiment are also great.
It's nothing bad.
7. must
be more competitive
Then, at any critical time, we will unilaterally further reduce the tariffs on US imports, and then convene a "free trade" conference in the world, so that the United States can call free trade with our buttocks in the future. We should also be the leader of free trade, just like the US after World War II.
When I think of being a boss, Xinyi and regiment must feel happy.
Ha-ha.
Appendix 1
The bill of America defines the undervalued currency.
The terms of the bill to be voted out by the US House show that if a country meets the following criteria, its currency will be regarded as a fundamentally undervalued currency by the United States.
1. within a period of 18 months, a country's government intervened at least one foreign exchange market for a long and large scale.
2. within a period of 18 months, a country's "real effective exchange rate" is at least underestimated by 5%.
3. within a period of 18 months, a country's global current account surplus is huge and this condition lasts for a long time.
4. within a period of 18 months, a foreign exchange reserve held by a national government exceeds the amount required for debt repayment in the next 12 months or exceeds 20% of the country's currency supply or exceeds the value of the country's previous four months of imports.
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