The Industry Chain Is Improving Positively; &Nbsp; &Nbsp; PTA Is Expected To Continue To Rise After The Holidays.

Profit distribution tends to be reasonable.

In the first half of the year, the Asian PX market has been affected by the raw material isomerization of mixed xylene and the high load of equipment. The market has continued to weaken. Compared with that, the spot price volatility of PTA is relatively stable, and the cost continues to decline, which improves the profit margins of PTA.

And downstream slicing, polyester, polyester, short and other markets are facing a certain degree of shipping resistance. On the one hand, they need to bear the high cost pressure of upstream, on the other hand, they are forced to loose prices to expedite shipments, and the limited profit margins are further squeezed.

Affected by this, the profit distribution of the industrial chain is extremely unreasonable, generally manifested as "middle big, two small".

But since mid August, the operation of petrochemical industry chain and polyester industry chain has improved, and the profit distribution of all links has tended to be reasonable.

From the perspective of petrochemical industry chain, although the current stock of crude oil is still at a high level, the pition period between the peak consumption of gasoline in summer and the peak season of winter heating oil demand, the oil products market is declining, the operating rate of refineries has been reduced, and the supply of naphtha has been reduced accordingly.

In addition, ethylene demand is strong (PVC, ethylene glycol, styrene and other vinyl derivatives profit is more ideal, boost ethylene consumption), occupying more naphtha consumption.

Naphtha prices rose, cost pulling MX prices higher.

PX market supply is also relatively limited. The world's major PX supplier, Venus Japan Petroleum and energy company, recently announced that more spot sales will be stopped in the fourth quarter of 2010, and the load of the main domestic PX producers (China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Qingdao Li Dong, Fu Jia Da Hua) remains at a relatively low level of 60%-70%.

So far, the profit margins of naphtha, MX and PX have been improved to varying degrees.

High load and low inventory

In the recent years, the production equipment of the car parking is resumed in succession, as well as the decrease of accidental stopping accidents of air temperature. In recent years, the load of PTA factory in China is close to full load again.

First of all, from the domestic spot market structure, as shown in the following table, in addition to the fact that about 30% of the PTA source in Jialong Petrochemical Company is marketed through the spot market, most of the other PTA manufacturers (such as Xiang Lu petrochemical, Sinopec Yangzi, Ya Dong petrochemical, Ningbo Taihua and Ningbo MITSUBISHI) are basically implementing contract users, which are available for the spot market.

Secondly, the operation of PTA factories near the full load is short term behavior at present, and the pressure on inventory pressure of production enterprises is not likely to rise rapidly.

It is reported that Yangzi Petrochemical, Formosa Plastics Ningbo, KP chemical, Samsung, India petroleum, Taiwan East Timor and Formosa Plastics and other parts of the main domestic and foreign PTA producers have carried out plant maintenance plan from 10 to November, when the operating rate will inevitably fall again from high.

Thirdly, after the large-scale centralized power rationing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces from 8 to September, there are signs that the pressure of power supply in the textile industry has been lightened in October.

Up to now, the loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has risen from 65% in mid 8 to 72% in the middle of last month, thus indirectly stimulating PTA consumption.

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Rigid demand is emerging.

The opening season of textile and clothing consumption in autumn and winter has stimulated the demand of weaving manufacturers to make up for the warehouse, and the sales volume of fabrics has recovered significantly.

By the end of September, the total daily turnover of China's Textile City rose to 5 million 430 thousand meters, of which the chemical fiber cloth reached 4 million 110 thousand meters, which was significantly warmer than that in early August, and the turnover increased by more than 30%. (August, the total volume of China Textile city's total volume was only 4 million 50 thousand meters, of which the chemical fiber cloth was 3 million 100 thousand meters).

The recovery of the terminal market has further enhanced the enthusiasm of the downstream industries for stocking the raw materials.

Polyester production and sales situation is good, most factories are generally 100% to 150% in production and marketing, and 200% or more in higher part.

Polyester staple fiber market is more popular, production enterprises have no inventory, some manufacturers even because of the stock and negative stock situation, mostly 5 to 10 days, the mainstream factory supply of goods is tight, the market pull up atmosphere is increasingly strong, the price hit a new high in the year.

Polyester chip market mainstream trading price steadily higher, the market continues to be strong.

The upstream goods are reluctant to sell, the downstream is actively rising, the polyester industry chain has pulled up quite well. At the same time, the high production profit drives the polyester factory to increase the purchase of polyester raw materials. With the further loosening of the expected electricity limitation policy implementation and the full spread of the textile and garment production orders in the autumn and winter, PTA needs to be speeded up and it is worth looking forward to.

To sum up, the author believes that the PTA is expected to keep rising after being actively supported by the industrial chain, maintaining low spot stock and increasing rigid demand in the downstream.