New Cotton Stocks Sold Out And Not Listed; Cotton Has Gone Crazy

　　 cotton Crazy.

In Feng mengxiao's view, cotton prices Soaring , beyond everyone's expectations.

Feng mengxiao is the information director of China central storage cotton information center.

Dong Shuangwei shares the same view with Feng mengxiao. Dong Shuangwei, pioneer futures research and development Center Manager, has been focusing on cotton futures research for many years.

Since the middle of September, cotton prices have soared by more than 20%. It has set a new record since 1999 when the country released cotton prices. Over the same period, foreign cotton prices (cotook index) also rose sharply, from 94.1 cents / pound to 108.5 cents / pound, up 15%.

Behind the soaring price of cotton, a fact that can't be ignored is that in recent years, the low income of cotton farmers has led to a sharp decline in cotton planting area, which has caused tension between supply and demand from the root.

Cotton bull market ? Twice a year and a half

"Since 2009, cotton prices at home and abroad have risen rapidly." Feng mengxiao said that there had never been such a rise in the recorded data.

On September 27, China's cotton price index (ccindex328) was 21255 yuan / ton, while on January 5, 2009, China's cotton price index (ccindex328) was only 10994 yuan / ton, up 10261 yuan / ton or 93.33%. Feng mengxiao said that the annual rise and fall of cotton prices in China from 2005 to 2008 was generally within 5%.

China's cotton price index, first released by the national cotton trading market on June 17, 2002, is a comprehensive indicator reflecting domestic cotton prices.

The "China cotton price index" is calculated based on the actual arrival price of cotton of textile enterprises all over the country and the actual daily cotton spot price of transactions in the national cotton trading market.

At the same time, the proportion of the spinning volume of each province in the national spinning volume and the spinning capacity of the quoted textile enterprises are taken as weights. After several weighted calibrations, the "China cotton price index" is finally generated.

China's cotton price index reflects the national average price level. China's cotton price index was initially released once a week, but now it is released once a day.

"Those cotton enterprises specialized in purchasing cotton are confused now." Feng mengxiao said that recently very busy, invited to explain the cotton market. Also very busy is Dong Shuangwei, according to his words, "the phone is going to be burst."

Dong Shuangwei said the rally began with the New York Futures Exchange (ice). In the middle of July, American cotton futures began to make efforts and kept rising, driving the cotton futures prices of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (hereinafter referred to as Zhengshang exchange).

Founded on October 12, 1990, Zheng Shang exchange is the first pilot unit of futures market in China and one of the four futures exchanges in China. It is under the vertical management of China Securities Regulatory Commission.

In 2004, cotton futures landed on the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange, making it the second cotton futures exchange in the world after ice.

Futures prices rose, driving up the prices of electronic matchmaking market and spot market.

"It's crazy to make money." Dong Shuangwei said that cotton futures companies have encountered a rare good time, which is more crazy than the stock market.

In Feng mengxiao's opinion, there are also cotton yarn enterprises who are "making crazy", but the downstream weaving and garment processing enterprises are facing the huge pressure brought by the rising cost and the industrial development is facing a crisis.

Feng mengxiao's interpretation of the 2009 cotton bull market is like this. The cotton year begins on September 1 and ends on August 31 of the following year. The cotton year that just ended is 2009 cotton year (hereinafter referred to as 2009). First of all, the cotton output in 2009 decreased by about 15%, and the quality also dropped significantly. The cotton yield above grade 3 decreased by 30% compared with the year before. ? Secondly, affected by the financial crisis in 2008, some textile enterprises compressed their inventory. That is to add an inventory to the normal trade inventory, which is called restocking effect. The restocking effect is reflected in the year of 2009. Due to the decline of cotton yield and quality caused by disasters, and the re inventory effect, the cotton growth in 2009 was very fierce, rising from 13000 to nearly 20000 yuan. However, the cotton rally in the beginning of 2010 was more fierce.

Reserve cotton sold out ? New cotton is not on the market

"When the price exceeds 20000 per ton, the market can't find the direction." Dong Shuangwei said that at that time, a lot of funds had taken profits, and the spot market prices were basically stable, but the price of selling and storing rose against the market, which further stimulated the cotton price.

Since August 10, the storage plan of 600000 tons has been implemented. Throwing and storing is to sell the national reserve cotton to the market to balance the market demand. Cotton selling adopts the bidding mechanism, and the price of throwing and storing cotton rises against the market, with an increase of more than 1000 yuan in a short month.

"Throwing and storing cotton prices led the rise." Dong Shuangwei said that the price of reserve cotton rose by 1747 yuan per ton on the 25th compared with that before the Mid Autumn Festival, the highest month on month increase this year, which rarely happened in the past.

"In 2008-2009, the purchase and storage price of CSSC cotton was 13000-14000 yuan / ton. China storage cotton is the biggest winner. " Dong Shuangwei said.

As of September 26, China national reserve cotton management corporation has put in 561195 tons of cotton, with an actual turnover of 551596 tons, with a transaction rate of 99.3%.

On the 26th, China Cotton Textile Industry Association issued the "urgent notice on increasing the supply of 400000 tons of state-owned storage cotton", saying that in order to ensure the demand of textile enterprises for production of cotton, 400000 tons of state-owned storage cotton will continue to be put in through auction on the basis of 600000 tons of National storage cotton in the early stage.

In 2008, CCRC received and stored 2.72 million tons of cotton, and in 2009, 1.33 million tons of cotton were dumped and stored, with a balance of 1.39 million tons. After one million tons of reserves were abandoned in 2010, the national reserves were less than 400000 tons.

"It's really scary." Dong Shuangwei said.

Due to the impact of climate, cotton harvest this year is about 15 days later than in previous years. Domestic cotton large-scale listing has been the fastest since the middle of October. American cotton has just been harvested, and the fastest arrival date will be at the end of November, while the registration date of Indian cotton export has been postponed again and again, which may be postponed to October 15.

"Reserve cotton has also been thrown out, new cotton has not been listed, and finally may aggravate market panic buying." Dong Shuangwei said.

On the 28th, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of agriculture, the General Administration of industry and commerce, the General Administration of quality inspection, the general supply and marketing cooperatives and the Agricultural Development Bank jointly held a national teleconference on cotton work. It is expected that cotton production in 2010 will decrease slightly. As for how to control cotton price, no specific plan has been put forward.

"The state's ability to regulate and control the cotton market is getting weaker and weaker." Dong Shuangwei said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released data on the 10th that 588000 tons of cotton were in the U.S. at the end of the period, while the global final inventory was only 10.36 million tons, the lowest in 15 years.

The news once again deepened the fear of the market.

Textile industry ?:? Panic buying cotton, hungry buying cotton?

"When the price is between 18000 yuan and 19000 yuan / ton, textile enterprises do not look at the price and grab the goods." Dong Shuangwei said that many customers accepted his advice and purchased large quantities before this round of big rise.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the added value of the textile industry rebounded rapidly after reaching the bottom in 2008, with a year-on-year increase of more than 10% in 2009.

Since 2009, China's retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear and textiles have increased by more than 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate has been increasing, reaching 24.4% in July 2010.

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in 2009, China's textile and clothing exports gradually recovered. In July 2010, the export of textiles and clothing exceeded US $20 billion, a record high, and returned to the level before the financial crisis.

On April 22 this year, Huafang group, the largest shareholder of Huafang textile, reduced its holding of 15.7 million shares through the block trading system of Shanghai Stock Exchange, accounting for 4.98% of the total share capital of the company.

The company's announcement said that Huafang group reduce holdings, is to reserve the appropriate price of cotton.

Huafang textile is the only listed company controlled by Huafang group. Its main business is the production and sales of cotton yarn, decorative cloth and knitting dyeing and finishing.

Feng mengxiao said that in the past 10 years, China's cotton production and demand gap has basically maintained at more than 2 million tons. China is the largest cotton producer, consumer and importer.

In 2009, the domestic cotton inventory was only 2.38 million tons, equivalent to 49.4% in 2005, which was 20 years