Cotton Prices 15 Years High Myth Shattered &Nbsp; Cotton Prices Will Fall In October
Recently, international and domestic
cotton
Prices have seen an unprecedented surge and set a new high.
In the interview, I find that the downstream industries such as cotton yarn and cloth industry have been obviously affected, and the prices of home textiles, clothing and other commodities are rising quietly under the action of price pmission.
In addition, some manufacturers are willing to break the contract in order to maintain the cost, while the export enterprises have to increase the advance payment in order to ensure orders.
Cotton prices hit a 15 year high
"We haven't seen such a rise in cotton in 15 years."
Mr. Jiang, sales manager of Xi Ying men group, said that in August last year, the price of cotton was 10000 yuan per ton, and now it has reached 17000 yuan per ton, an increase of about 70%, while the price of textiles has increased by 20%.
The author opens domestic cotton.
futures
K-line chart found that cotton futures prices rose sharply after August.
Especially during the 4 days before the Mid Autumn Festival, its price jumped by 20%.
After the Mid Autumn Festival, domestic cotton futures rose to a high level of 22 thousand and 200 yuan / ton in September 28th.
The author learned from the city textile and clothing association that domestic cotton prices have reached a new high of 15 years.
In addition, the author also learned that cotton futures in New York hit a new high in 15 years in September.
Cotton cloth and cotton cloth cost a lot.
Soaring cotton prices will certainly affect
Downstream industry
。
In Taitung Liqun, a brand counter, the salesperson told me that the price of cotton yarn increased because of the price rise of cotton yarn. "For example, the cotton fabric sold for 500 yuan a year last year, the same material will sell for 600 yuan this year, and the price increase is due to the cost increase."
At the cotton counters at the department store, Ms. Zhu said that compared with last year, cotton prints were up by 4 yuan a metre. "Now there is little profit."
Ms. fan told the author, "in 5 and June this year, high staple cotton can reach 18 yuan per meter from Shanghai, but now it rises to 23 yuan, so that we can barely get in."
Reducing cotton content with new materials
The author also found that the rise in cotton prices forced some textile enterprises to explore new materials to reduce the content of pure cotton in their products.
Underwear shop in Liqun commercial building, underwear made of modal and bamboo charcoal fiber accounts for half of the country.
"Cotton prices have risen and can only be replaced by modal cotton."
The salesperson of Ttiumph counters told me that the 50% products launched by the company now contain modal.
The manager of Xi Ying men told the author that in the long run, the production of new materials without restriction from single raw materials is a good outlet for the development of enterprises. "We also use some materials such as soybean fiber to ease the pressure brought by the rising cotton prices."
In order to ensure cost, enterprises would rather break the contract.
"In order to ensure delivery on time, we have to add advance payments to downstream processing enterprises."
Li Min, manager of Yifeng international finance department, who specializes in textile exports, told the author that the advance payment was about 30%, and the remaining part was repaid at the time of delivery.
This year, in order to improve the production enthusiasm of downstream processing enterprises, their advance payments are added at any time according to the schedule, and they have paid all the funds before delivery.
"The rise in cotton prices has caused a lot of pressure on the enterprises to take orders. Many processing enterprises are willing to break the contract and do not lose money."
Li Min said that in order to ensure the timely completion of export orders, their company had to add advance payments and send staff to supervise production.
"Many cotton textile enterprises in Qingdao have slowed down production."
City Textile Association Zheng secretary general said that in response to the rise in cotton prices, many enterprises have taken measures, "the first is to wait and see prices, adopt flexible orders, give up the medium and long term large bills; second, adjust the product mix, minimize the use of cotton raw materials; third, continue to develop new varieties, and respond to the price rise of raw materials."
Cotton prices will fall in October
Why cotton prices are so crazy? "First of all, affected by the slump of cotton prices in 2008, cotton growers' confidence was frustrated and the planting area was reduced."
Mr. Jiang, sales manager of Xi Ying men group.
In addition, the impact of the financial crisis in the first half of this year was weakened, the export of textile industry was restored, and the demand for cotton increased significantly.
Last year, the main cotton producing areas in China reduced production by nearly 1/4 due to climate disasters and other factors, which further aggravated the contradiction between supply and demand imbalance.
Meanwhile, cotton exporting countries such as India suspended cotton exports to boost cotton prices.
"In the middle of October this year, the price of cotton should drop somewhat after the new cotton is listed in large quantities."
Mr. Jiang said, however, he still believes that the space for cotton prices to fall this year is limited. Then the market trend should take into account the weather factors and downstream demand.
In addition, the responsible person of the Textile Association said that most of the products currently listed were spring orders, and the raw materials used were cotton last year. The price of the new cotton will be decided later this year after the listing of new cotton in October this year.
"We need a process to increase the price of raw materials from cotton to fabric enterprises and then to clothing manufacturers."
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