One Word: PX Prices Continue To Rush PTA Still Rising Power

The TA1101 contract has been in the middle of 7200 yuan / ton since mid July.

First, the macro environment is generally warmer.

Recently, the US stock market performed more strongly. The Dow Jones industrial index not only won the battle for 10000 points, but also expanded in September, consolidating the strong support of the 10000 point barrier, breaking through the suppression near the previous 10720 points, and steadily increasing in October 8th, and returning to 11000 points for the first time since the beginning of May.

The US dollar index has entered the downward orbit since mid September and has not yet reversed the downtrend. Its direct consequence is that funds are pferred to crude oil and commodity markets.

The new round of quantitative easing expectations triggered by the BoJ's unexpected interest rate cut and the weakening of the US dollar have become the main reason for the rising commodity prices during the eleven long holiday period.

In terms of crude oil, according to the latest data provided by CFTC, as of October 5th, the crude oil fund increased by more than 25893 hands, and the fund's empty space decreased by 28637, with a net increase of more than 54530.

The massive entry of funds will push crude oil to continue to be strong in the near future, and support the downstream petrochemical products including PTA.

At present, the promotion of commodity prices

Two, PX continuously conquered the pass, pushing up the PTA market.

Due to the huge volume of new capacity in 2009, the pressure of over supply of PX has become increasingly prominent. This year, the price gap between PX and naphtha or MX is mostly under the break even line, and PX manufacturers suffer a lot.

Especially since May of this year, the profits of pet products in the PTA industry chain have improved dramatically, and PX producers have to help themselves.

Since July, many sets of PX devices have been cut down or shut down at home and abroad, and the price of PX has been rising gradually. The yield has been better than before, but it is still hovering around the profit and loss line. At present, the installation load of the main PX producers in China is relatively low at 60% - 70%.

At the same time, as PX devices are mostly integrated devices, the operation of refineries largely determines the supply of PX.

The peak of summer driving in the United States has ended, crude oil demand will fade, the US refinery will enter the autumn maintenance state, and the winter heating oil demand will not come until November.

The reduction of the operating rate of the refinery has indirectly reduced the market supply of PX. Therefore, in October, the supply pressure of PX will be alleviated from the source, and the price of PX will continue to be strong or even expand.

Customs data show that from 1 to July this year, China's PX imports 2 million 54 thousand and 400 tons, a decrease of 8.1% compared to 2 million 234 thousand and 700 tons in the same period in 2009.

According to the statistics of China chemical fiber information network, from 1 to July this year, the output of PTA in China was about 7 million 336 thousand and 500 tons, an increase of more than 24.2% over the 5 million 905 thousand and 500 tons of the same period last year.

This shows that the demand for PX in the PTA factory is increasing obviously, and the contradiction between PX oversupply has eased.

In terms of contract goods, Asia's three largest suppliers in October, the contract price was quoted at 1080 US dollars / ton CFR Asia, which was 130 US dollars / ton higher than the contract settlement price in September.

In the spot market, as of October 8th closing, PX rose 16 US dollars to 1104 U.S. dollars / ton FOB compared with the previous trading day, Korea broke through the 1100 US dollar / ton mark.

PX since July 14th, 814 U.S. dollars / ton FOB South Korea began to break even three hundred points, less than three months has risen 290 U.S. dollars / ton, or 35.6%, becoming a star in the PTA industry chain, also become a powerful driving force for the PTA market.

Three, the downstream rigid demand is strong, providing solid backing.

Entering the year October, the film and film production in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was basically lifted, and the downstream is in the traditional peak season.

Especially during the national day, the prices of polyester products increased significantly, production and marketing rates improved, and the load of polyester and terminal looms increased significantly.

The number of downstream weaving machines increased significantly this year, making tight supply and low inventory become the characteristics of the polyester Market in recent years. The ordinary straight spinning polyester staple fiber played a leading role in the long market of polyester products. It not only broke through the consolidation pattern of the first month, but also increased from 9670 yuan / ton in August 31st to 12700 yuan / ton in October 8th, setting a new high price in the year, rising more than 3000 yuan / ton, or 31.3%.

On the one hand, the price increase of polyester staple fiber is related to the stagnation of capacity scale and no increase in market supply. On the other hand, it is also driven by soaring cotton related products.

The price of cotton, sticky short continues to rise, raising the cost of textile raw materials, and downstream textile enterprises to reduce production costs and increase the demand for relatively cheap polyester staple fiber.

This year is a relatively prosperous year for the textile industry, especially the yarn link. All kinds of yarns have always maintained a high level of profitability. Their acceptance of textile materials is acceptable, and the cost pfer is more smooth, which is conducive to the subsequent development of the market.

In the terminal market, from 1 to August this year, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 129 billion 804 million US dollars, up 23.75% over the same period last year.

Among them, the export amount of textile yarn, fabrics and products totaled 49 billion 515 million US dollars, an increase of 32.29% over the same period last year, and the total export volume of garments and accessories reached 80 billion 289 million US dollars, up 19.02% over the same period last year, indicating that the external demand for textile and clothing is very strong.

And the domestic demand market, the same astonishing growth, 1 - August domestic clothing shoes and hats, needle textiles retail sales of 354 billion yuan, an increase of 23.7%.

The growth of internal and external demand is the main source of amazing profits for polyester polyester this year, and also a solid backing for the development of textile raw materials market.

At present, although the PTA load has risen to a high level of 94%, this is only a short-term phenomenon. There are still PTA suppliers overhaul from October to November.

The PTA market is still dominated by the upstream and downstream businesses, especially after the TA1101 contract broke through 8250 yuan / ton in October 8th, and in October 11th, it increased substantially, and the technology was more perfect.

PTA is expected to challenge the high point of April this year, but we note that the rise of PTA is more driven by external factors of the upstream and downstream industries, and its supply is still loose. We should remain cautious in optimism.