Shandong Cotton Area Survey: Rising Trend Is Hard To Stop. Cotton Merchants Don'T Find Cotton Yet.

Whether domestic or foreign, cotton prices are in a round.

Although China's new cotton has also been listed, it has failed to make the "high temperature" of Cotton City subsided.

The cotton price of "high fever" has made cotton growers of cotton growers feel happy, but at the same time, it is also testing the textile enterprises that have entered the "Jin nine silver ten" production peak season.

The cotton price has gone up and the cotton farmers have been reluctant to sell. The cotton prices are high this autumn. Where does the "bull market" come from? How long will the high prices last?

The highest price in history: 5.7 yuan / Jin

"This year cotton seed is cost-effective, when the seed cotton opens the scale to purchase when more than 4 yuan / Jin, all the way to rise, now more than 5 yuan / Jin.

Although cotton has been waterlogging this year, cotton prices have reached a high level in recent years, so that cotton farmers have not reduced returns.

On the morning of October 10th, cotton farmers in Zhanhua, who were busy picking cotton in the cotton field, told the newspaper that the price of 5.5 yuan / Jin is even higher than the highest price of over 1 yuan in previous years.

Mou's words were also confirmed in many cotton purchasers.

According to the introduction, when the new cotton came into the market last year, it opened a price of about 3.1 yuan per kilo. During the national day, it rose to 3.3 yuan / Jin, and cotton prices rose to 4 yuan / Jin this spring.

This year's cotton market is running at a high profile, and the price is about 4.3 yuan / kg, rising to 5.5 yuan / Jin all the way.

"One day a price, good quality cotton yesterday was still 5.5 yuan / Jin, today rose to 5.7 yuan / Jin, the highest price in history."

On the afternoon of 10 th, a Jia Xing cotton acquisition dealer told the newspaper that the price of cotton in recent days was very unstable, basically rising every day, and even the price was different from morning to night.

The price of seed cotton has gone up crazily, and the price of lint is no exception.

"Lint price has risen from around 18000 yuan / ton to about 24500 yuan / ton, which is the highest price in recent years."

A textile enterprise official said that in the past 40 days, the price of lint has increased by about 36%.

Cotton yield reduction caused by floods

"The main reason for the price increase is the reduction in production, which reduces the amount of cotton and thus increases the price."

The above Jia's cotton buyer told the newspaper.

And this subsequent investigation found that, for the recent cotton prices all the way "high fever", market participants have attributed it to disaster reduction.

The analysis of market participants is reasonable.

Before media reports, from the Binzhou Municipal Bureau of agriculture, it was learned that, due to the common influence of warm and humid airflow and cold air on the edge of the subtropical high, there was continuous heavy rainfall in Binzhou since August, and the crops were seriously affected.

As of August 25th, the area of crops affected by Binzhou reached 6 million 516 thousand mu, and the direct economic loss caused by the disaster was estimated to be 1 billion 739 million yuan.

Of which 2 million 266 thousand mu of cotton, of which 1 million 800 thousand acres of disaster.

The main forms of disaster are field water accumulation and water logging, and cotton loss is 1 billion 39 million yuan.

Although the above figures are not sensitive, but mu Xing cotton farmers have their own feelings and understanding.

"A mu of land production reduced by more than 100 Jin, lower areas yield more."

Mu Xing cotton farmers told this newspaper that a single mu of cotton can produce more than 500 Jin of cotton, and this year it can produce 400 Jin / mu, or even some more than 200 kg of mu yield.

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Cotton prices rise, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell

In the context of soaring cotton prices, cotton farmers are not only reducing cotton production, but also reducing their planting area.

Many cotton purchasers, including Jia, said, "cotton is not ready now. Cotton picking to cotton is two or three times a day, and now it runs at most a day, and the load is five thousand or six thousand kilos per vehicle."

In the past ten years, cotton traders in the cotton trade have said that the farmers' reluctant sale also plays a certain role in boosting the purchasing price of cotton in the near future.

In this interview, we learned that grain prices generally rose this year, and cotton growers' expectations for cotton prices were also higher, hoping to reach 6 yuan / kg.

"Now my family has picked nearly 1000 kilograms of seed cotton, and they have not bought them at home, hoping that cotton prices will continue to rise and sell at a good price."

A Hu family cotton grower is full of expectations for new cotton income.

Hu's cotton farmers are not alone.

In the survey, we learned that although the price of cotton has reached the high point in recent years, many cotton growers have not yet reached an ideal value if they sell at the price of 5.5 yuan / Jin.

Reduction in production price increases cotton farmers' income flat

Farmers reluctant to sell psychological enhancement in addition to the rising cotton prices, whether the wait and see of the market outlook is reduced due to the reduction in production? Does the reduction mean that the increase of cotton farmers will be affected? For this reason, this newspaper came to Zhanhua County on the afternoon of 10.

Zhanhua county has 500 thousand mu of cotton land, which is the main supply area of cotton in Binzhou city.

On the afternoon of 10, in the market information section of Zhanhua County Agricultural Bureau, director Wang was browsing the latest cotton price quotes in his office.

"The average cotton price of 5.3 yuan / Jin is now relatively stable over the past month, according to the figures I monitor."

Director Wang gave reporters some data on cotton prices last year, which has nearly doubled this year, compared with the average price of 3 yuan / Jin last year.

Inversely proportional to the price rise is a large reduction in cotton production in many parts of Shandong, including Zhanhua, under the influence of weather factors.

"Recently, I visited a number of cotton fields in Zhanhua to investigate, and an acre of cotton land was reduced by 1/3 compared with last year. This is not a small figure."

Director Wang's face is extremely grim. He added, "some of the more serious land areas even suffer from fatal birth."

Does it mean that the increase in cotton growers will be affected?

It turned out that despite the reduction in cotton production, cotton prices rose sharply, which allowed cotton farmers' overall income to be flat compared with last year.

This newspaper learned from official data that cotton production in Zhanhua county produced more than 600 Jin per mu last year, and this year the yield per mu is about 400 Jin, and the reduction rate is 1/3.

At the same time, cotton prices have nearly doubled, just to offset the loss of cotton farmers' production.

"At present, the price of cotton is unlikely to fall. Judging from the current price, cotton farmers will not lose money anyway."

Director Wang told reporters.

Obviously the Tun cotton government has not yet been discovered.

Faced with the cotton farmers' desire to sell cotton is not strong, or there is a "intention to cotton" situation, Zhanhua County Agricultural Bureau responsible person, from the staff sent to visit the situation, cotton merchants are not obvious cotton situation.

This is mainly affected by the harvest of Dongzao jujube, no more labor can help cotton farmers pick cotton, and then, cotton prices for the current cotton growers do not see the fall, not to the end of a large number of sales season.

A survey of journalists found that many cotton buyers have been unable to collect cotton.

But the official saying is that no one can decide the floating situation of cotton prices in the future, but the market decides.

Therefore, for some cotton purchasers, there is a certain risk in the high price of cotton.

According to the analysis of the industry, the characteristic agriculture of Zhanhua also decides the particularity of the market.

Now a lot of labor is busy harvesting winter jujube, and this year, the price of winter jujube is also good, resulting in temporary shortage of cotton labor situation.

But perhaps the price of labor will rise as cotton prices rise.

This determines that the profit margins of cotton purchasers are smaller and the risks can not be ignored.

However, with the large number of new cotton coming into China and the gradual arrival of imported cotton, whether or not we can get rid of the "high temperature" of cotton market, we still need to see the market performance.