Experts Analyze Reasons For Soaring Cotton Prices

City special production station senior Bao Lisheng, chief economist of agronomist and city cotton, believes that "cotton market is like the stock market", and the market volatility is not easy to predict and the risk is great. According to his analysis, the reason why cotton prices are rising is more. Aspect :

First, the global cotton inventory consumption ratio continues to decline, the demand is strong and stock tension leads to the rise of international cotton prices. Global cotton output and consumption are projected to be around 25 million 100 thousand tons in 2010/2011, and final inventory is expected. maintain In the recent 9 million 100 thousand tons, the recent tight global stock prices have promoted the rise of international cotton prices.

Second, Zheng cotton futures price support. In October 12th, the closing price of zhengmian 1011 contract reached 25500 yuan / ton, all higher than cotton spot price, the highest level in history.

Third, the sustained recovery of the global economy will continue to promote the growth of cotton consumption. China's cotton imports will increase more than last year. It is estimated that China's import volume is 3 million 100 thousand tons this year, an increase of 29% over the same period, which is the main driving force for global growth. China's demand factors will pull cotton prices up.

Fourth, the cost of cotton production is forced. According to investigation and statistics, in 2008 and 2009, the cost of cotton production (including labor input) in our city was 1965 yuan / mu, 2046 yuan / mu, and the cost per seed seed cotton was 7.84 yuan and 8.16 yuan per kilogram according to the 100.2 kg of cotton seed output per mu in 2009. It can be seen that the price of seed cotton is below 8 yuan / kg, and cotton growers will not be profitable, seriously affecting the enthusiasm of cotton planting.

Fifthly, the national cotton reserves are insufficient. After more than a year of selling, the state reserve cotton has been less than 500 thousand tons, and the market regulation is limited.

Bao Lisheng believes that influenced by the international market, cotton prices have been on the low side for many years, and cotton growers are hardly profitable. According to the statistics of the municipal agriculture department, the net income of cotton fields from 2006 to 2009 was negative, especially in 2008, which was affected by the international financial crisis. The export of textile enterprises was low, resulting in a decrease in cotton demand and a low price. The average purchase price per kilogram of seed cotton was only 5.45 yuan. If the labor cost was calculated, each acre of cotton would lose 484 yuan. For many years, low efficiency of seed cotton has directly affected cotton growers' planting enthusiasm. Nationwide, cotton has been cut for three consecutive years. After the financial crisis, cotton demand increased sharply, and there was a gap between supply and demand of cotton, prompting cotton prices to return quickly or even irrational.

In addition, this year cotton has been exposed to low temperature and rainy weather during sowing. The whole growth period has been postponed and the growth is not as good as usual. The cotton yield per unit of cotton is expected to decrease by about 5% over the previous year.

Judging from the current situation, the rise in the purchase price of new cotton before the Mid Autumn Festival is a process of reasonable price return, and the surge after the Mid Autumn Festival is somewhat irrational. This unusual situation is caused by the excessive enlargement of supply and demand gap and the speculation of idle funds.

As the price of cotton market rises all the time, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell wait-and-see sentiment. Because of the reduction in cotton production this year, cotton growers want to sell the highest price, but it is difficult to do this under market conditions. As cotton purchasing prices rise, many cotton farmers are planning to expand their cotton planting area next year. This is also not advisable. For farmers who are relatively good at planting cotton technology and suitable for planting cotton land, they can be suitable for a variety of purposes. Other farmers should not blindly follow suit.

Bao Lisheng suggested: cotton growers should not sell, and choose reasonable high prices to sell cotton stored at home in time. Such a high price is unlikely to last for a long time. It is just the cotton planting season in Australia, Africa and other countries in the southern hemisphere. They have been informed that the increase in international cotton prices has increased their planting area. In addition, after the Spring Festival, we can predict the planting area of cotton, which is not conducive to the continuous rise of cotton prices.