Be Vigilant! High Cotton Prices Will Enter A "Dangerous Area"

　　 From the end of last year, cotton prices continued to rise. In September 25th, cotton prices hit a new high of nearly 10 years, breaking 20000 yuan / ton.

Two days later, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of agriculture, the General Administration of industry and commerce, the General Administration of quality supervision, inspection and quarantine, the head office of supply and marketing and the 7 branch of the Agricultural Development Bank specially convened the national teleconference on cotton work. The meeting decided to regulate from 5 aspects. Cotton price It includes maintaining the basic balance between supply and demand of cotton and promoting stable development of cotton production, protecting cotton farmers' interests, protecting cotton needs, stabilizing market cotton prices, standardizing circulation order, preventing and controlling operational risks, and deepening quality inspection reform.

However, the decision of the conference did not affect the uplink of cotton prices. In October 8th, the first trading day after the National Day holiday, cotton futures closed again, hitting a new high since listing.

In the view of Li Xuerong, a senior researcher at CIC, the 5 measures do not contain more specific measures and are hard to suppress. cotton The craziness of prices. In an interview with the China national economic news reporter, she said that the 5 measures were mainly to balance the supply and demand of cotton from the cotton production link, the market circulation link and the downstream cotton textile enterprises. These measures have provided good guidelines and ideas for stabilizing cotton prices. If these measures can be put into practice and fall into thin spots, it will help stabilize cotton prices in the long run. But in the short term, if there are no more specific measures, it will be difficult to change the fact that the current cotton prices are rising wildly.

The 7 sector did not come up with specific targeted measures. Edgar East Ma Wenfeng, an agricultural analyst, said in an interview with the China national economic news reporter that "the regulation of the relevant departments on cotton is more than enough."

First look at the domestic side, although the new cotton has entered the picking stage, but the output will not increase more than last year, has reached a consensus in the industry. The gap between supply and demand is still large. After several previous dumping, only 2.3 million tons of cotton were left in the state's hands, and only a drop in the bucket for the supply and demand gap of up to 3 million tons.

In terms of imports, China's cotton imports accounted for 33.98% of world exports last year. The proportion of imports increased by 1 times over the first 8 months of this year. Even more quotas for enterprises can hardly ease supply tensions. It will also further increase the price of international cotton.

"Therefore, China's cotton prices will continue to operate at a high level in the coming period." Ma Wenfeng said.

But this does not mean that idle funds can be recklessly committed. Because in Ma Wenfeng's view, the price of cotton has entered a "dangerous area". "Before the National Day holiday, my judgment is that the highest price of cotton is 22000 yuan / ton, and now the price of some cotton in Xinjiang has reached 25000 yuan / ton. Now there are risks in the cotton market. " He said.

At present, the risk of cotton market has been reflected in the downstream industry. Now, there are many media reports, some small and medium-sized enterprises even because the cost is higher than the price and shut down production; some foreign trade enterprises even prefer to pay liquidated damages and unwilling to fulfill the contract; even Lining and other large enterprises began to complain. At the same time, the price of cotton clothing in the retail market has also risen substantially.

"The size of the risk depends on the overall macroeconomic situation of our country. The rapid trading in October 8th was related to the expected warming of the new round of quantitative easing in the US and the unexpected resumption of zero interest rate policy after 4 years in Japan. If the central bank's issuance of money continues to increase, the risk of the cotton market will be relatively small; conversely, if the monetary issuance policy tightens, the risk will further increase. Ma Wenfeng said. {page_ Break}

For the long-term solution to the gap between supply and demand of cotton, Li Xue Rong suggested that in terms of planting, the state needs to encourage two-way improvement in cotton production and quality, and give preferential policies such as minimum purchase price and improved seed subsidy. In terms of reserves, the state should expand the coverage area of cotton reserves and increase reserves, reduce the opportunity of speculation, and increase the speculation cost of hot money. In circulation, we should formulate relevant regulations to regulate middlemen behavior, standardize cotton circulation system, increase market supervision and punishment, and shorten the intermediate links of cotton supply.