The Area Of Cotton Field Decreased By &Nbsp In 2010, And Where Did The Price Of New Cotton Go?

New cotton is on the market. How is cotton growing this year? Buy Whether the price is high or low, and whether it is cost-effective to compare with the grain crops? With these problems, the cotton association of Dezhou city of Shandong province organized the relevant personnel to conduct an in-depth investigation.

Cotton prices went up all the way in 2009.

Dezhou is one of the key cotton producing areas in China. The annual cotton planting area is 200-300 mu. After the launch of new cotton in September last year, the purchase price of local cotton seed rose all the way, rising from 6 yuan / kg in early September to 7.30 yuan / kg at the end of December, up 60% over the same period in 2008, exceeding the highest price of 7.20 yuan / kg in 2003. After the Spring Festival this year, especially after May 1, cotton prices continued to rise sharply, and seed cotton purchase price reached 8.40 yuan / kg, up 40% from last September. The price of lint rose from 13000 yuan / ton in September to 18500 yuan / ton in early July this year, up 41%, a record high.

The main reasons for the high cotton prices are: first, affected by climate and other factors, domestic cotton production is reduced in 2009, and the gap between production and demand is large. The shortage of social resources has resulted in high cotton prices. Two, since the national day last year, the domestic textile industry has been gradually warming, especially after the Spring Festival. Cotton prices have risen rapidly, driving cotton prices up. Three, international spot and futures prices continue to rise.

The cotton field area dropped sharply in 2010.

It was so high last year. Cotton price Farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton has not been stimulated, and the area of cotton fields has not risen or fallen this year. According to the survey, the cotton area in Dezhou is only 1 million 550 thousand mu this year, a decrease of 32% over the previous year, to the lowest level in 11 years. The main reasons are:

First, the comparative benefits of seed cotton decreased, and farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton decreased. According to the Dezhou Cotton Association survey, although 2009 cotton prices hit a record high, but compared with grain and pepper, cotton seed income is not high. It is estimated that direct cost (fertilizer, seed, plastic film, pesticide, irrigation and other expenses), excluding labor, land and labor costs, will be deducted. The net income of cotton seed is 1094 yuan, that is to say, 10 mu of cotton will be paid about 10 thousand yuan a year. Cotton seeds earn less than 289 yuan per mu, less than 3150 yuan per mu.

Second, the rate of mechanization of seed cotton is low and government subsidies are few. It is understood that in recent years, the degree of mechanization of grain growing is increasing, labor intensity is reduced, and employment is reduced. In the whole growth period of cotton, except for seeding, mechanization can be realized, and other production, management, medication and pick-up, etc., need manual completion. Grain crops are subsidized by improved varieties, grain subsidies and comprehensive subsidies for agricultural products. Seed cotton There are only 15 yuan seed subsidy per mu, and there is no comprehensive subsidy for seed cotton subsidies and agricultural subsidies.

Third, planting cotton is not as good as earning money from going out to work. At present, nearly 80% of the young people in the countryside work out for work, earning one thousand or two thousand yuan per month and earning twenty thousand or thirty thousand yuan (equivalent to more than 20 mu of cotton).

The comparative efficiency of cotton planting and the diversification of farmers' way of making money have made farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton less and less.

Cotton prices will run high this year.

In the middle and August of August, there was a continuous large range of high intensity rainfall and cloudy weather in Dezhou, with an average of 270 millimeters and a maximum rainfall of 340 millimeters. This is extremely unfavorable to the growth of cotton in the bud stage, especially in counties such as Xiajin, Qihe, plains and Qihe. Due to continuous cloudy days, lack of light and shedding of bolls and buds, the Cotton Bolls at the bottom have already mouldy and become black. According to preliminary statistics, about about 500000 acres of cotton were affected in the city, of which nearly 100 thousand acres were severely damaged, and cotton production was estimated to be more than 20%.

The cotton price is low, farmers are unwilling to grow, and the area is reduced. The decline of the area has pushed up the cotton price. Since the beginning of last year, the domestic textile industry has recovered, increasing cotton production and increasing production demand gap, pushing cotton prices up. It is predicted that the national cotton gap will be 300-400 million tons in 2010, and the contradiction between production and demand is still very prominent. Accordingly, cotton prices will be running high in the next few years, and the era of low cotton prices has passed, and the era of high cotton prices has arrived.

According to the cotton association of Dezhou, when the price of seed cotton reaches 7.55 yuan per kilogram this year, the yield of seed cotton and grain crops (one season wheat and one season maize) is the same. If seed cotton purchase price reaches 8 yuan / kg, seed cotton will earn more than 113 yuan per mu, and if seed cotton price is 7 yuan / kg, then seed cotton will earn 142 yuan less than grain per mu.

This year, cotton in Dezhou was hit by a disaster. It is estimated that the yield per seed cotton is only about 225 kg. If the yield is calculated, when the purchase price is 8 yuan / kg, the seed cotton will earn less than 127 yuan per mu, and when the purchase price reaches 8.60 yuan / kg, the seed cotton will be the same as the grain. {page_break}

It is understood that in order to stabilize the soaring cotton prices, the state issued 1 million 890 thousand tons of import quotas in January 2010. In the 5 and June this year, two tons of cotton quotas with 800 thousand tons and 860 thousand tons of sliding taxes were issued. At the same time, we accelerated the launch of reserve cotton and sold 600 thousand tons of reserve cotton in August 10th. The reserve price was 16500 yuan / ton. In recent days, the price of the reserve basket was broken by 18100 yuan / ton of standard grade lint. According to the current lint spot price of 18000 yuan / ton, the purchase price of seed cotton should be 7.80-8.20 yuan / kg, if the price is higher than 8.20 yuan / kg, the acquisition processing enterprise will lose money.

According to the above analysis, cotton price is less than 7.55 yuan / kg farmers are not cost-effective, unwilling to sell; cotton price is higher than 8.20 yuan / kg textile enterprises do not want to, cotton processing enterprises will lose money.

Cotton prices went up at a low price in 2009, and cotton farmers sold late, the higher the price. This year, affected by the reduction of cotton planting area, disaster in some areas and the recent increase in grain prices, farmers expect higher psychological prices. It is generally expected that the new cotton scale will cost more than 8 yuan per kilogram.

Cotton prices are at a historically high price. As a cotton purchasing and processing enterprise between cotton growers and textile enterprises, it is not easy to grasp the purchasing price of new cotton, which has greatly increased the risk and reduced the farmers' reluctance to sell. It is expected that the new cotton market will have a wait and see period this year. The specific time of listing will be delayed for more than half a month than the normal year. It will start listing at the end of September or early October, and the selling time will be more dispersed. The price of specific scales depends on the spot price of lint in the middle and September. It is estimated that the purchase price of new cotton should be around 8 yuan / kg this year.