Cotton Prices Skyrocketed To A Ten Year High Of &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Agricultural Prices Staged A "Big Change".

After the price of garlic and mung beans has been soaring, the new price pioneers of cotton have come to the fore. From September 20th to October 11th, they not only refreshed the highest price records in ten years, but also triggered a chain reaction on the industrial chain: cotton farmers were reluctant to sell, cotton merchants hoarded, cotton prices rose all the way, small and medium-sized cotton spinning enterprises were overwhelmed, and even small traders selling cotton cloth began to raise prices.

The speculation of hot money, the influence of weather factors, the time lag between the new and old cotton market, and the soaring cotton prices induced by various factors not only caused an industrial shock, but also triggered people's attention.

Cotton prices skyrocketed to a ten year high

In October 11th, the price of the domestic commodity futures market rose sharply, and the cotton futures of the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange in May of next year rose by 6.63%, closing at 23 thousand and 900 yuan per ton, the new high since the listing and the highest price in another ten years.

On the first trading day 3 days ago after the national day, the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange will deliver in May next year.

It was from the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange in September 20th and delivered in January.

Although in October 12th, stimulated by the market information of the central bank's differential deposit reserve ratio for 6 commercial banks, the domestic commodity futures market ushered in a relatively common shock call after a substantial rise.

The cotton futures and other agricultural products with a strong rally were clear. The cotton futures of the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange fell 1.55% in May next year, but still closed at second yuan in the ten years of 23 thousand and 500 yuan.

And its holdings increased by more than 6 million, indicating that despite the recent surge in cotton prices, investors' funds are still pouring into the market.

Analysts say the new annual output of the cotton market is still the focus of market speculation. As the spot market purchasing price strongly supports the rise of futures prices, investors still have more enthusiasm to do more.

In fact, cotton prices have started to rise since August.

In addition to cotton futures, the average selling price of reserve cotton has risen from less than 17 thousand yuan per tonne in mid August to more than 22 thousand yuan per tonne, and it is showing an accelerating trend since mid September. The standard price of cotton per ton of cotton in the last four trading days before the national day increased by 927 yuan, 900 yuan, 636 yuan and 1747 yuan respectively compared with the previous day.

The rise of cotton prices has also been reflected in many upstream and downstream links such as cotton purchase.

China Cotton store announced that the price of seed cotton has been rising continuously, and the price of lint has increased rapidly, and has been pmitted to yarn and cloth links.

The purchase price of some cotton producing areas has also risen significantly.

Take Hami, Xinjiang as an example, a survey of cotton purchasing enterprises shows that the rate of increase in enterprise booking price is around 30%.

Three major causes trigger soaring cotton prices

According to the briefing, there are many factors that cause soaring cotton prices this year. First, the weather is abnormal, and many of them are affected, affecting cotton production and listing late. Two, some idle funds are speculation, and some foreign futures traders seize the price of domestic cotton before listing, and three raise the price of cotton farmers.

According to Yang Shanxing, President of Hebei Cotton Association, the cotton growth in the first half of this year is generally good.

But after entering August, because of the continuous rain, the growth is not very good.

"Many cotton peaches are rotten."

"Linen yield in our province is 800 thousand tons per year, and this year it is estimated that it will reach 640 thousand tons."

Yang Shanxing told reporters.

According to media reports, at the beginning of this year, the Xinjiang Zhejiang chamber of Commerce estimated that at least 10 billion of Zhejiang's private capital was evacuated from Shanxi coal mines and domestic real estate to Xinjiang's cotton market.

According to the General Administration of customs data, China's textile and clothing exports gradually picked up in 2009.

By July this year, the export of textiles and garments exceeded 20 billion US dollars, a record high, returning to the level before the financial crisis, and brought about a great demand for cotton market.

Insiders pointed out that with the massive listing of new cotton after the holiday, the guidance of policies and the gradual easing of market tensions in India, cotton prices are likely to gradually become more reasonable.

National frequency reserve cotton emergency

In order to ease the tight supply of the market and to postpone the listing of new cotton and meet the demand of textile enterprises for cotton, not long ago, the relevant state departments decided to put in 400 thousand tons of cotton reserves again.

Statistics show that only 21 days between August 10th and September, the reserve cotton sold 520 thousand and 116 tons of reserve cotton, accounting for 86.69% of the 600 thousand tons of national cotton reserves.

However, textile enterprises reflected that they had been unable to pick up the cotton reserves after they bought the cotton in the auction, because the managers of the storehouse also increased the price of the warehouse from 30 yuan to 200 yuan.

"Do not pick up goods, enterprises have to dig out inventory fees, pick up goods, but also be bitten, is really angry."

A business owner complained to reporters.

"Cotton prices will have to drop after new cotton is launched this year."

In October 12th, Kuang Bo, chief PTA analyst at Yongan futures, told reporters that as domestic and foreign market demand is strong, and cotton output in China and even the world will not increase too much, there will be limited space for cotton prices to fall this year, and will still maintain a higher price.

However, the newly released monthly magazine of the China cotton storage information center seems to bring some tranquilizers to the market.

According to the report, cotton prices continue to rise relatively limited in the context of high cotton prices and expected global cotton supply and demand.

The report points out that the recent rise in cotton prices has been suspected of being ahead of the market.

With the gradual listing of new cotton, the pressure on cotton prices will gradually increase.

"Cotton prices are soaring, cotton spinning enterprises can also reasonably use futures tools to effectively evade risks."

Wang Jiyuan, general manager of Yongan futures Shijiazhuang business department, suggests.

"After a big rise, there must be a big drop."

I expect cotton prices to fall in recent weeks.

Wang Chao, chairman of the Hong Run company, Gaoyang County, thinks that with the closure of some enterprises, the listing of new cotton will increase, the speculation capital will be gradually withdrawn from the country, and the state's selling of cotton reserves will be effective.

"But it can not be denied that the cotton price rise is worth considering for the whole cotton spinning industry."

"For textile enterprises, the price rise of cotton is a bad thing, but in a sense, it is also a good thing."

An insider from the preparatory group of Hebei textile and clothing association told reporters.

It is understood that the province's textile industry generally exist high production, low efficiency, low value-added, enterprises "scattered" and "small" problem.

"Rising cotton prices can force textile enterprises to develop new varieties of textiles.

The added value of new products is relatively high, and profit margins are naturally high.

This can bring a higher risk resistance capability to enterprises, so as to achieve the goal of adjusting the upgrading of structural industries.

The man said.

"Some textile enterprises can also turn their attention to polyester fibers to reduce their dependence on cotton."

One industry insider suggested.

Cotton farmers reluctant to sell cotton enterprises complain

Cotton farmers are reluctant to sell stored cotton {page_break}

Compared with the price suffered by enterprises, many cotton farmers are still holding cotton, waiting to wait and see, waiting for the coming of higher prices.

"I have planted 6 mu of cotton this year, picking it up, selling part of it, leaving most of it in hand and waiting for a better price."

Liu Zhuang, a villager in the village of Pingxiang County, Liu Honghai, does not deny his little calculation.

The survey data released by China's grain reserves showed that as of September 17th, the new cotton sale rate in the whole country was only 3.7%, down 3.6 percentage points from the same period last year, a decrease of 14.9 percentage points over the past three years. So far, this figure is far below the average of the recent three years.

"Cotton prices are soaring, and now cotton farmers who are in urgent need of money are selling cotton.

No hurry to spend money, many are watching.

Yang Shanxing, President of Hebei Cotton Association, told reporters.

It is understood that due to the rapid rise in cotton prices, banks have tightened their lending to cotton companies, and even joint-stock banks have stopped lending to cotton trading enterprises.

An anonymous person told reporters that compared with previous years, the current situation is not optimistic about the acquisition of the province, and the proportion of cotton sold and picked cotton is about 20% lower than in previous years.

Wang Suzhen, Secretary General of the cotton association of Cangzhou, one of the main cotton producing areas in our province, said that most of the cotton that Cangzhou is acquiring now comes from Tangshan and Tianjin.

"In addition to Wuqiao, Dongguang and other cotton producing areas have the habit of re selling in the coming year, other counties and cities are reluctant to sell."

"We are all afraid that cotton farmers can not buy cotton. After they are sold, there is no grain left."

Zhang Jianshe, general manager of Huayun cotton Co., Ltd., Cheng An county, Hebei, told reporters that the phenomenon of hoarding cotton has become more serious in Xingtai, a major cotton producing city in our province.

A cotton trader in Cheng County, who does not want to be named, told reporters that he now hoarded more than 100 tons of lint and had a total investment of 5 million.

Anyway, bank interest is relatively low, so it's better to put it in the cotton market.

A large cotton textile enterprise revealed that the sales profit of cotton yarn was 10 times higher than that of last year, so that the high return that did not happen in ten years benefited from the soaring price of cotton and cotton yarn and the operation of buying cotton after buying cotton.

Not only is it difficult for a batch of cotton spinning enterprises to store and store cotton, many cotton buyers also have difficulty in collecting cotton.

"There are great risks in purchasing cotton at a high price."

Zhang Jianshe said.

Some small and medium-sized cotton spinning enterprises stop production

"Cotton prices have risen, and many enterprises have been unable to shoulder them."

Wang Chao, chairman of Hong Run Company of Gaoyang County, Baoding, told reporters that some of the small and medium-sized enterprises in the Gaoyang textile industry developed losses and even stopped production.

Recently, the cotton industry chain survey conducted by CCTV shows that because of the excessive speed of cotton prices, many cotton traders have difficulty in purchasing, some enterprises have been out of production or half stop production, so far, enterprises that are still under construction can hardly keep up with the way of stock cotton or lower profits.

"I didn't expect that when the industry got warmer, it was not long before we met the soaring price of raw materials, and now we are in trouble again."

A business owner complained.

It is understood that due to the cotton supply and price restrictions, Shandong, Zhejiang and other provinces have been small and medium-sized cotton mills to suspend production.

"At present, many textile companies are afraid to take orders."

Sitting in the office of the Zhuo Da clothing garden of the provincial capital, Han Yingfeng, general manager of Hebei Hai Fang clothing trade company, told reporters helplessly.

Han Yingfeng's company is a medium-sized textile enterprise with more than 100 people. It mainly produces bedding products and all products are exported.

Because of the recent surge in cotton prices, his company had to destroy a contract with foreign trading partners a year ago.

"A year ago, when we signed a contract with our foreign trade partners, a white sheet cost 40 yuan, plus a profit of 10 yuan, for 50 yuan, and now it costs more than 50 yuan."

Han Yingfeng told reporters that if we continue to export according to the original contract price, how much will the company lose?

"Now enterprises are willing to break the contract in order to maintain it."

"Now they dare not pay their bills, they are all cash pactions.

In the past, credit was widespread in our circles.

Speaking of cotton boom, Li Kang, who is engaged in spinning trade in Cangzhou, said that the price of pure cotton yarn has risen from 18000 yuan / ton last year to the current 33000 yuan / ton.

"The price of 10 and 11 o'clock in the morning is different. Say the price of 10 tons per ton of cotton yarn. If the money doesn't fight before 10 o'clock, the price will rise by hundreds of dollars at 11 o'clock."

Li Kang said.

"From a provincial perspective, small and medium-sized textile enterprises stop production and destroy the single phenomenon is very serious."

An insider from the preparatory group of Hebei textile and clothing association told reporters.

According to him, in the case of soaring cotton, the days of large enterprises are relatively better. "Large enterprises have large inventories, and they can use inventory and low cotton for a while, but when the stock is running out, everyone is on the same starting line."

Market price of cotton fabric ready-made in the provincial capital market

"Oh, I'll buy that little cloth of 3 feet."

"I want five feet for each of these two kinds of cloth heads."

In the early morning of October 12th, at the morning market near the Shimen Park, Fu Qiang street, the capital of the provincial capital, a few of the selling stalls were crowded with the older mothers who had just finished the morning exercise.

"I heard that cotton prices have gone up, so the cloth has to go up."

Chen Da Ma, who lives in the dormitory of Hebei science and Technology University, said that the cloth on the morning market had not yet gone up in price, so we should buy more pieces of cloth so as to prepare some bedding clothes for the daughter who was born quickly.

"In the past, two or three people came to buy it every day. Suddenly, there were many cloth purchases in these two days. Many people bought a lot of them."

The woman who told the stall told reporters that she was selling cloth or defective products sold by shops or manufacturers, and the prices were relatively cheap.

"Listen to the stock said that the batch of cloth heads sold out, the price will go up.

The price of cotton has gone up.

Unlike the morning market, the price of cloth in the Ping An textile mall of the provincial capital has seen a "rise".

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"Cotton prices here have risen by nearly 10%."

Chang Da Jie, a cloth salesperson at Ping An textile mall, told reporters.

In the afternoon of October 12th, in the biggest cloth sales market of the provincial capital, the most frequently heard word was "price increase".

"Since the summer, cotton prices can be said to be a daily price, especially after the national day, prices have increased a lot."

Sister Zhang pointed to a red cotton twill fabric. "This cloth used to be the cheapest when it sold for only 15 yuan per meter, and now it is 18 yuan less.

"

"I have been doing cloth business for thirteen years, and in my impression, cotton prices have risen so much in a short time."

Salesgirl Wang Da Jie counted out an account for the reporters. If she made four pieces of bedding products with pure cotton satin, the processing cost was less than 400 yuan before, and now it needs 460 yuan.

"This year, especially in recent times, the price of cotton and cotton yarn has skyrocketed, and the price of raw materials has pushed cotton prices up all the way."

Ping An textile shopping center official told reporters that in recent years, the price of raw materials such as cotton has been fluctuating little, cotton prices have risen slightly.

"Now, a lot of cloth manufacturers have stopped delivery, and before October 15th, there will be a unified price increase for cotton cloth in the market."

The official said, now is the peak season for cloth sales. Although the price of cotton cloth has been raised, the cloth is often a rigid demand, which basically does not affect the daily sales volume of the store.

Reporters found that although the price of cotton cloth generally increased, but the mall Rimaib customers and many, pay also appear queuing phenomenon.

"Because of the rise in cotton prices, the ex factory price of some four brands of merchandise has increased by 10% over the past few years."

According to Liu Dajie, a salesperson from the Yuhua supermarket store in the northwestern supermarket of the provincial capital, all the famous brands such as the mercury home textiles and the golden cloth home textiles have already raised their prices. For example, the four piece set of the mercury home textile cotton twill interweave jacquard is priced at 680 yuan, and the current price is 720 yuan.

Even so, the reporter saw that there are still customers buying in the supermarket.

"The rising price of raw materials has helped many manufacturers to adjust prices collectively."

However, what surprised Liu elder sister is that the price increase stimulated consumption. "In the past two days, the sales of goods in the bed area increased by nearly 20%."

In the Xinhua cloth city of the provincial capital, the owner of Wu, who was bored playing poker in the shop, told reporters that the pure cotton cloth was up to nearly 10 yuan per meter from last year's 7.5 yuan / meter.

"In order to maintain customer resources, sometimes we have to sell cloth at a low price because we fear that customers will not get too fast.

Competition is fierce now. We can't easily let a customer go. "

Said Wu boss.

Affected by the rise in cotton prices, the autumn and winter clothing prices of the provincial capital rose by two to 30%.

In the capital city Jinyi City clothing city, a brand Hebei agent Wang told reporters lamented that business is too difficult.

Mr. Wang told reporters that the factory price rose straight from last month.

"A set of more than 100 yuan of cotton clothes has risen more than ten yuan in one month."

"New prices from manufacturers are now rising, and the wholesale price of autumn clothing has increased by one to 20%, and the price of winter clothing is also going to rise."

Mr. Wang said.

Reporters interviewed found that in addition to brand clothing, including warm underwear, household clothing, infant clothing and other cotton fabrics as the main raw materials, all showed a bullish trend.