Viscose Staple Fiber Is Expected To Exceed 25000 Yuan

With another rise last week, 1.5D Viscose staple fiber Completely out of the yoke of 22000 yuan, began to quickly impact the 23000 yuan mark. In the face of the rising tide of rising tide, market participants rapidly rose from 22000 yuan / ton to 24000 yuan / ton. However, according to the market relationship between viscose staple fiber and cotton, rzxwsys.toocle.com analysts expect viscose staple fiber to exceed 25000 yuan mark.

First, high cotton prices and indirect benefits from viscose staple fiber.

At present, domestic cotton spot prices are rising frequently, and the sound is booming. Only after a week of national day, the price of grade 3 cotton was 24177 yuan / ton, 982 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week, or 4.23%, an increase of 44% over the same period last year. While Zheng cotton futures were affected by the traditional peak season of textile industry, and the market consumption was strong. Meanwhile, because of the soaring cotton prices during the National Day holiday, the main trading day of the cotton futures contract closed to 9% trading on the first day after the holiday. The transaction was magnified and subsequently adjusted at a high level. On Thursday, under the premise of the rising linkage of the external cotton market, and the positive factors such as the high purchase price of seed cotton and the decline of domestic cotton stocks, the main contract was now trading. As of October 15th, the closing price of the 1101 contract of Zheng cotton was closed at 24805 yuan / ton, up 2490 yuan or 11%.

　　 cotton The price is high, viscose staple fiber also get a piece of soup. Viscose staple fiber has the same handle and moisture absorption and sweating characteristics as cotton, but its dyeing and crease resistance is due to cotton, because it is often used as a substitute for cotton. With the global economic recovery and strong market consumption, viscose staple fiber has been further improved in the proportion of clothing materials. Generally speaking, the cotton blending ratio of textile enterprises is determined by the production of orders. Textile enterprises have little room to choose, but some enterprises often adjust the proportion of viscose staple and cotton in spinning raw materials according to their own conditions, so as to produce high profit and low risk yarn varieties. At present, the continuous rise of cotton prices has not only increased the substitution advantage of viscose staple fiber, but also promoted the steady rise of viscose staple fiber prices.

from Do spinning From the cost point of view, the cotton blended yarn made of cotton made of 32S needs 10% loss and 5000 yuan / ton processing fee, while only 2% raw material consumption and 4000 yuan / ton processing fee are needed for supporting the same specification of cotton yarn. According to the statistical data for many years, the difference between viscose staple and cotton is generally reasonable at 3000-4000 yuan. At present, the price of the 3 grade lint spot market is at a high price of 25000 yuan / ton, and viscose staple fiber is still less than 23000 yuan after several rises. According to the factors such as loss and processing cost, viscose staple fiber has a more obvious market advantage. The spot price of cotton is calculated at the price of 25500 yuan / ton, and the 32S yarn of the same specification can be made. Viscose staple can bear the high level of 28000 yuan / ton, that is, the price of viscose staple fiber is underestimated.

Two, the upstream and downstream synchronous rise, boosting viscose staple fiber rapid rush.

The rising price of cotton not only promotes the market quotation of viscose staple fiber, but also indirectly brings more market popularity to viscose fabric, and the market demand has been greatly improved. Cottonseed, which is one of the by-products of cotton, contains a lot of short lint. This is the main raw material for making viscose staple fiber. The rise of cotton also stimulates the price of cotton lint. At present, the new short linen has begun to appear on the market. However, because of the better downstream demand, the market price of the cotton lint market continues to rise. At present, the market price of cotton lint continues to rise steadily, and the direct quotation is 9500 yuan / ton. The actual negotiation is 9200-9300 yuan / ton, and the seller is reluctant to sell it. The higher quoted price in the area has risen to 11000 yuan / ton.

At present, the market price of cotton lint has been rising continuously, but the downstream market is afraid to take over the market. Only part of the refined cotton lint market is still maintained, with a higher transaction price of 11000 yuan / ton. For the calculation of cotton pulp, we first calculated the cotton short price in the market with a lower 10000 yuan / ton, plus 30% loss. The cost of producing short ton cotton pulp per ton was 13000 yuan, and the processing cost of 3000-3500 yuan / ton. The cost of cotton pulp rose to 16000-16500 yuan / ton. At present, the market price of cotton pulp is more than 16500-17000 yuan / ton, and the actual profit is less than 500 yuan. However, the cost of cotton pulp calculated at a high price of 11000 yuan / ton is 17300-17800 yuan / ton, even if it is the highest price in the current market, it still loses 300-800 yuan. No wonder at the meeting of cotton pulp held on Tuesday, pulp enterprises believe that the price of short silk pulp should not be below 16000 yuan / ton level based on the current price of up to 10 thousand yuan, and the supply of cotton pulp is very limited.

After the rise of two days on Thursday and Friday, the price of viscose staple fiber manufacturers has been adjusted. Now 1.5D is quoted at 22500-22600 yuan / ton, and 1.2D is quoted at 22700-22800 yuan / ton. According to the cost of viscose staple fiber, according to the current 16500 yuan / ton cotton pulp calculation, the production loss is set to be 14% of the conventional market. The viscose staple made of raw material costs only 18810 yuan / ton, plus 6000 yuan / ton processing cost, and 1.5 viscose staple fiber cost reaches 24810 yuan / ton. Compared with the current 22500 yuan quotation, viscose staple fiber enterprise has 2300 yuan higher impact height.

Recently, people's cotton yarn market has been shipped more frequently, the quotation continues to mention. After the national day, the first trading day after the national day, many manufacturers have raised 500 yuan to cope with the soaring viscose staple fiber. Then, last Wednesday, many manufacturers continued to raise 1000 yuan. Now, the price of the 32S cotton machine woven yarn ticket is 29000 yuan / ton, and the 32S knitting yarn market is quoted to 30000 yuan / ton. From the cost point of view, viscose staple fiber is calculated at the current high price of 22500 yuan / ton. According to the spinning loss of 2% and the average processing cost of 4000 yuan, the total cost of 32S cotton yarn reaches 27000 yuan / ton, and the profit space is 2000-3000 yuan / ton. According to the current price of human cotton yarn, the price of viscose staple can be raised to 25000 yuan, which is basically guaranteed. Even if the market quotation of viscose staple fiber is increased, the cost of the cotton yarn business is acceptable, which to some extent also supports the continuous increase of viscose staple fiber.

We all know that rising prices need sales as support. As the viscose staple fiber has been rising and prices have repeatedly broken through, the purchasing power of the downstream market has also been rising. The large viscose staple fiber enterprises have no confidence in the stock or negative stock situation, which also gives viscose staple fiber enterprises a lot of confidence. In addition, the downstream human cotton yarn market is also following the rise. The better market shipment situation also stimulated the viscose staple fiber upward. stay cost With the double support of sales volume, viscose staple fiber is expected to exceed the historical high of 25000 yuan / ton.