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5 Characteristics Of Cotton Situation In Hubei Province

2010/10/20 18:04:00 50

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Since entering the 2010 cotton year, cotton prices of futures, matching, throwing, storing and spot have been vigorously promoted.

Unginned cotton

The purchase price continues to rise, the cost of textile and cotton continues to increase, the purchase and sale situation is extremely complex, the industrial risk chain is tight, and the market wait-and-see sentiment is strong.

The cotton situation in Hubei province has the following characteristics:

1, seed cotton clothing low, poor grades, water content seriously exceeded the standard

。

Affected by climate and environment, this year

cotton

Quality declined, the average grade was 3.3 last year, and this year's main grade is 4 grade, the proportion of grade 3 cotton is less, and the 2 grade cotton is rare.

In the early stage, the average linen percentage was below 37%, the water content was 17 - 18%, and some reached over 25%, which was 3 above the 13% of the normal year.

With the advent of the cotton concentrated listing period, the quality has improved earlier.

2, the purchase price continues to rise, the risk of cotton processing enterprises increased.

Seed cotton purchase showed a high trend and a strong upward trend.

From the beginning of September to 4.1 yuan / Jin for the current 5.6-5.8 yuan / Jin, some areas also surpassed 6 yuan / Jin, and the average purchase price of the whole province was over 5 yuan / Jin, an increase of 67% over the same period last year.

After the listing of new cotton, the acquisition cost price has always been ahead of the futures contract price, and the spot price of cotton is ahead of the futures price, which is higher than the forward contract price of 2000 to 3000 yuan / ton. Cotton purchasing processing enterprises can not realize futures hedging, and at the same time, it is affected by the negative impact of imported cotton to port, state dumping and textile enterprises' bearing capacity. Cotton purchasing processing enterprises are at the cusp of price.

3, cotton farmers are actively selling, and high priced incomes are run by cotton traders.

Cotton grower

The current purchase price of seed cotton is basically accepted. Most cotton farmers believe that the purchase price to 4.8 yuan / Jin has been very impressive, and this year's acquisition conditions are very loose, so the sales attitude is positive, there is no hoarding mentality, some of the cotton brokers hold a gamble mentality, a little hoarding.

At present, the total output of the province accounts for more than 40% of the total output, and the sales progress has accelerated over the previous year.

However, this year's high cotton price has not been fully implemented in the hands of cotton growers. Although the average price of the purchase has been over 5 yuan / Jin, the average price of cotton farmers in the province is only 4.5-4.6 yuan / kg, the difference is about 0.4-0.5 yuan / Jin, which is higher than that of 0.2 yuan per year, and the difference profit is earned by Cotton Traders and cotton brokers.

4, the competitive environment is bad, and the quality of the products is reduced. The annual cotton resources in our province are nearly 450 thousand tons, far from meeting the production needs of more than 130 400 and more than 600 200 enterprises and many small factories in the province. In addition, in recent years, the cotton merchants across the province have acquired over a large number of provinces, resulting in a large quantity of seed cotton outflow in our province, which makes seed cotton rush to buy more and more.

Unlicensed cotton traders are active and abnormal. They go to the countryside to string households and go deep into the field. Cotton farmers have just picked the seed cotton and become a hot commodity. Some even break the green peach and seed cotton. The moisture content is as high as 30-40 points, which seriously exceeds the national standard of moisture regain and is controlled by 10.5%.

Some small factories do not distinguish between grades, do not recognize water, do not choose "three silk", buy in the daytime, process at night, sell every other day, withdraw funds, and purchase by cycle. What is worse is that all cotton and short fiber can be mixed into lint, and only cotton bags and cottonseeds are left after processing.

Many of the 400 large factories have no choice but to relax the water standard. Within 15 points, cotton is a normal standard. The enterprises with standardized management will adjust the water content of 10 points to 13 points. This year, "super moisture" cotton is very common.

5, the gap is widening and the cotton price is soaring. The textile enterprises decide to "hold together for the winter". The enterprises above Designated Size have about 10 million spindles of textile spindles and about 1 million tons of cotton. The annual output of the whole province is only about 450 thousand tons, and the annual gap is more than 50%. The textile industry has developed rapidly this year, and the demand for cotton has increased. It is estimated that the textile cotton will reach 1 million 200 thousand tons, and the supply and demand gap will reach 60% or more.

Relying on exports and domestic demand, the textile industry has gradually escaped the impact of the financial crisis and the situation has improved markedly.

But after entering the year of 2010, because of the appreciation of RMB and the increase of labor cost, especially the cost of raw materials such as cotton, the good situation is hard to maintain.

Textile mills generally reflect the affordable cotton price of 23000 yuan / ton. In the face of the current uncontrolled rise of cotton prices, some textile factories have decided to switch to chemical fiber and other alternatives, and some have to reduce production and orders, or even close down production and prevent losses.