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Cotton Prices Soared &Nbsp In 2010; 2011 Harm Now.

2010/10/22 11:25:00 36

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The three quarter

Exit

It is still vigorous: in September, China's textile and clothing exports were valued at US $20 billion 16 million, up by 24.47% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 3.28%.

In 1-9 months, textile and apparel exports totaled 145 billion 482 million US dollars, an increase of 23.8% over the same period last year.

The growth rate of exports to the EU and exports to the United States continued to grow at a relatively high level. The growth rate in the 1-8 months was 21.6% and 30.7% respectively.

It is expected that the export value of the industry will reach 16% to 20% over the same period of 10 years.

growth rate

Fourth quarter year-on-year growth rate lower than the first three quarters, the ring is lower than the three quarter.

The main reasons are: the balance of European and American economies, and the proportion of China's total imports of textiles and clothing in Europe and the United States.

However, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is obvious, and the appreciation is expected to increase after the central bank announces the increase in interest rates.

Steady growth in domestic demand: in August 10, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 12570 billion yuan, up 24.26% over the same period last year.

Total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 97492 billion yuan in 1-8 months, an increase of 23.78% over the same period last year.

Forecast for the four quarter

Sales volume

It was higher than the three quarter.

The surge in cotton prices stems from a sharp contradiction between supply and demand: the 328 spot price of domestic cotton hit the highest price in the year, 30 yuan in September, 22416 yuan / ton.

The average price in September rose by 49.5% over the same period last year, rising from 29% to 50% in 1-9 months.

The main reason is the tight global supply of cotton, low inventory, large demand for cotton, and the contradiction between supply and demand.

The involvement of speculative funds is also an important reason.

It is estimated that cotton prices will remain at a price level of over 20000 yuan / ton for the year, and the growth rate will slow down. In the long term, it may fall back: in the 10 year, China's cotton supply and demand gap reached 3 million 483 thousand and 600 tons, and cotton prices may go further, but the rate of increase will slow down.

In the short term, cotton prices will remain at a high level due to the lack of timely adjustment of supply and demand and the pursuit of speculative capital.

In the long run, cotton price growth can be curbed with the increase in downstream prices, the fall in demand and the expansion of cotton planting area.

It is expected that the adverse effects of rising cotton prices on the industry will be reflected in the first half of 2011.

The specific performance is the decline in corporate profit margins and the closure of small and medium-sized enterprises. But in the long run, the market share of the dominant enterprises will expand and promote the concentration of industries.

Continue to recommend the leading industries with strong performance and low valuation.

The recommended sequence is Xun Xing stock (zipper), Weixing share (button zipper), Lu Tai (color weaving) and Huafu color spinning (colored spinning).

The brand clothing stocks have undergone a great adjustment in the style rotation in October. At present, the whole sector still has bubbles, but the investment value of some stocks has begun to appear.

We expect that the next round of the plate market may appear in the 11 year before and after the Spring Festival.

Recommend the good news birds, suggest buying at current price; seven wolves, Mei Bang dress, Fu Anna and Roley home textiles suggest that the price will be adjusted back to buy 10%-15% later.