Textile And Apparel: Polyester Fiber Into The Business Cycle Upward

2010/10/26 14:02:00 46

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Cotton price

Will maintain high, raw materials supply gradually ease, polyester staple fiber into the business cycle, we believe that the current round of PET staple fiber prices and profitability improvement is the fundamental reason is that the price of substitution cotton products rose sharply, so as to promote the polyester fiber short price volume rise, and upstream Px, PTA, ethylene glycol in the next 2~3 years, with the rapid release of domestic and foreign capacity, domestic supply gradually relaxed, the industry chain profit pfer to the downstream is a major trend, we think that this situation will remain in the next 1~2 years will continue to maintain, polyester staple fiber into the business cycle.

The trend of cotton prices is upward, demand for PET staple is increasing, and supply is limited by capacity constraints.

supply and demand

Tight polyester staple will enter the upward cycle in the next 1-2 years. We believe that the high price of cotton will be supported by its cost and supply and demand fundamentals. Therefore, even if the price of cotton falls next year, the price will not remain too high. The price difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber will remain at a high level, so the price of polyester staple fiber is able to maintain and continue to strengthen.

With such a huge price difference, the amount of polyester instead of cotton will gradually increase, and demand will go up in the next 1 years.

On the supply side, the investment period of the new polyester fiber staple project is more than 15 months, and it is difficult to improve the capacity in the next 1-2 years.

Under the decision of supply and demand fundamentals, polyester staple fiber has entered the boom and upward cycle.

Prosperity is highly constrained by raw material prices, but even

raw material

Rising does not affect its upward trend.

And we judged that the PTA price of the main raw material is expected to be stable.

PTA and ethylene glycol are the main raw materials of polyester staple fiber, while PTA accounts for about 65% of the cost of PET staple fiber. According to our understanding, the actual PTA capacity of the product put into operation in 2011 is about 400-440 tons. In 2010, PTA's domestic capacity is 15 million 600 thousand tons (plus 16 million 200 thousand HP in November this year), and the domestic capacity of PTA will reach nearly 20 million tons in 2011, and the demand is about 20 million tons.

We judge that domestic supply and demand will reach a balance in 2011, and the new production capacity in 2012 will exceed domestic demand. After 2011, PTA will gradually surpass the surplus situation.

We expect that the price of PTA will remain stable in the next 1 years.