Mid Shanghai: Analysis Of The Impact Of Interest Rate Increase On PTA Market

In the recent global level, the biggest economic trend is undoubtedly the "unexpected" increase in interest rates from the Chinese government.

The so-called accident is not China's question of whether to raise interest rates or not, but on the time point of raising interest rates.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, declared to the market that he did not raise interest rates until the end of the year, and that most of the market shared the same expectations. However, the government was acting independently, which brought a great shock to the global financial market.

Generally speaking,

There are two meanings in choosing the means of raising interest rates to control inflation: first, inflation is already quite serious. This is evident from the September CPI data released last week, and the data may be higher in October.

Now that inflation has emerged, the wave will not end soon.

Second, it is even more important to raise interest rates to manage inflation successfully.

Theoretically speaking, raising interest rate is a powerful means to control inflation. However, the qualitative analysis is not significant. The macro-economy is a process type. The two factors are the key factors that can ultimately control inflation.

We can not predict exactly how many times and how much interest levels will be needed to reduce the inflation pressure in China. But the empirical conclusion tells us that the 1-3 increase in interest rates at first is always "safe" and can even be understood as a good buying opportunity in the short run.

After raising interest rates last week, it is still in line with the "experience" from the perspective of asset prices and commodity prices.

The initial interest rate increase is often far from enough to reduce the inflation target, and it is more of an attitude of the government. The trend of the market can not be fundamentally changed. Therefore, the trend of stock market and commodity prices continues to rise after the interest rate increase, which makes it understandable.

According to the above analysis, it is very difficult for this interest rate increase to reverse the main theme of inflation in the short term, which means that market funds and expectations continue to play a role in promoting commodity prices.

The implementation of PTA is not the exception, but the qualitative judgment can not be directly implemented in the actual operation.

If we want to combine the interest rate increase with the market trend and the specific operation, we do not need to enter the exploration of the complex interest rate increase effect, and we can "raise the interest rate effect" technically.

Specifically, in the latest week, we observed the trend of the US dollar index and gold.

Their changes represent a collective reaction of mainstream market funds to China's interest rate increase, which will directly affect the commodity market and other financial markets.

It has been more than a week since gold came to its height, and the dollar should be observed at the critical moment whether or not to form a double bottom.

If the US dollar double bottom and the decline in gold continued this week, it means that the mainstream market is scruples about China's anti inflation signals and is taking corresponding actions.

In such a state, if the PTA in the vicinity of 9000 does not change much, its price will be difficult to go up too much.

In the light of the form of high triangle convergent arrangement formed by PTA at present, the possibility that price will ultimately choose to break upward will be greatly reduced or even break down.

If the US dollar double bottom structure fails this week and the gold starts to rebound, it means that the main force of the market will digest the measures to raise interest rates in China, and the market will continue to develop rapidly according to the way of inflation.

Then, in such a state, even if PTA's own industrial chain is unchanged, the price will tend to go up, and the triangle convergence form is more likely to break through and seek new heights.

As to whether interest rate increases has an impact on PTA's own industrial chain, the author believes that in the short term, it is difficult to influence and change the existing situation. Therefore, changes in the industrial chain should follow its own factors.