Futures Daily: PTA Moves For &Nbsp, And Medium High Oscillation Is The Main Theme.

High consolidation after MX and PX skyrocketing

Affected by tight supply and favorable PTA market, the price of MX and PX began to rebound from the end of July to the beginning of August.

In mid October, the 700 thousand tons / year PX facility in Dalian and the unexpected shutdown of CNOOC 840 thousand tons / year PX facility in Huizhou, China, further stimulated domestic MX and PX to rise, and the two prices all hit a high level since the financial crisis.

MX rebounded from 730 to US $1076 / ton, rebounded to 47.4%, and PX rebounded from 800 to US $1273 / ton, with a rebound of 59.1%.

Since then, the two have started to fall from the high level. In just a week, MX dropped 7.4% to 996 US dollars / ton, and PX dropped 4.8% to 1207 US dollars / ton.

At the beginning of October, the settlement price of the three major suppliers JX-noe, Exxon and ExxonMobil settlement ACP PX was US $1025 / ton.

In late October, the ACP PX's November contract announced by the three largest companies was priced at $1260-1280 / ton.

Faced with such a hot market, many Asian cracking units have gradually increased the operating rate, and domestic installations have resumed driving. The tight supply of the market is expected to ease. It is expected that the rise of MX and PX will slow down and the high level of consolidation will be dominated by early growth.

Domestic and international MEG devices have been restarted.

In foreign countries, the 350 thousand ton / year 1 MEG plant in maoliao, Taiwan, stopped in early September. It is expected to restart in mid and late 11. The 2 MEG device of 400 thousand tons / year will stop in mid 9. It is expected to restart at the end of November, and the total load of 3 MEG device 700 thousand tons / year is 80%.

Sharq's 560 thousand ton / year 2 MEG facility in Saudi Arabia is expected to restart around October 25th.

Indonesia's Polychem has stopped its two MEG installations since October 23rd, of which 90 thousand tons / year's 1 MEG device is planned to restart at the end of October, and the 2 MEG device of 125 thousand tons / year is scheduled to restart in mid November.

India IOC is located at Haryana's 300 thousand tons / year MEG device in late September, and is expected to restart in October 25th.

Domestic, Shanghai Petrochemical 225 thousand tons / year MEG plant plans to restart at the end of November.

The 650 thousand tonne / year installation of Zhenhai Refining and chemical plant is scheduled to be overhauled at the end of October, but it will not affect its contractual supply. At present, the start-up load will remain at 7 to 8.

Maoming Petrochemical 105 thousand tons / year installation plan starts from December 1st to stop for 35 days.

On the port side, according to the statistics of port arrival in October, the total number of cargo ships in Ningbo reached 126 thousand tons, and the total cargo volume in Taicang reached 60 thousand tons, and Zhangjiagang reached 52 thousand tons of cargo.

Tank area, according to incomplete statistics, Ningbo area inventory 60 thousand - 70 thousand tons, Taicang area inventory 70 thousand - 80 thousand tons, Zhangjiagang area inventory 290 thousand - 300 thousand tons.

As domestic and international devices have been restarted, the tight supply of MEG is expected to ease and the rally is slowing down.

PTA device parking inspection good early release

Earlier, domestic and foreign PTA devices continue to have a parking overhaul plan. After the National Day holiday, PTA prices rapidly climbed to a high level in the first week. I believe that this positive information has been released in advance.

In addition, some devices at home and abroad have been reopened after overhauling, and the supply of PTA has increased at the later stage, or the price has been further suppressed.

For example, the KP chemical 550 thousand ton / year 3# plant in Ulsan, Korea has been restarted in early October.

The 800 thousand ton / year installation of MITSUBISHI India in India Haldia has been restarted in early October with a load of 60%.

Indian Oil Corp's 550 thousand tons / year installation will stop in mid September and plan to restart in October 25th.

SK petrochemical MTA is located in Ulsan, South Korea's 530 thousand tons / year installation plan to restart in mid October.

In the middle of October, the PTA load dropped to about 70% in the middle of October due to the impact of installations such as Yanda, BP, Zhuhai, Liaohua, Ningbo and Ningbo.

In late October, BP Zhuhai and Taiwan Ningbo resumed production, and the total load of PTA started to recover to 81%.

Adequate pre - stocking, downstream factories against high priced goods

In the middle of October, the average operation rate of the whole downstream polyester stabilized at about 80%, and the production and marketing averaged 64% - 100%.

The price of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased rapidly in September, and stagflation began to stabilize in mid October.

At present, most polyester factories have begun to stabilize prices for reasons such as supply and demand, downstream profit and other factors.

At the same time, in order to avoid the risk of high price, most factories always observe the adverse signals emitted from high prices, assess the situation and deliver the goods in time.

On the one hand, although the start-up rate of the downstream weaving has picked up, it has already been stocked up after the pre holiday chase.

On the other hand, because of the appreciation of the renminbi and the increase in the price of cotton and polyester, some of the downstream weaving has increased the cost and profits, thus reducing the operating rate and reducing the rigid demand.

Especially round machine manufacturers, partly because of low profit or even lose money and shut down.

Therefore, in the middle of October, the production and sale of polyester products were greatly reduced. Most manufacturers only had 60% to 80% production and sales, and the better ones could be flat. The poor ones were only 30% to 50%.

For example, in mid October, the mainstream negotiation level of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester staple market remained at 12800 - 13100 yuan / ton.

In addition, due to the end of the peak season of beverage consumption, the market climate of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang sliced market is calm, and the buying and selling of the lower reaches are in sight. Among them, half light mainstream business is in the range of 10600 - 10700 yuan / ton, and the gloss is in the range of 10300 - 10400 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, slicing, bottle flakes and filament continued to increase slightly, while staple fibers maintained relatively low inventory.

To sum up, although the price of PTA is still supported by cost support under the theme of inflation, it is believed that the rapid rise after the holiday has already released many favorable factors ahead of schedule. At present, there is plenty of stock in the downstream, resisting high price goods, and PTA price or high level consolidation in the late stage to digest the previous increase.

Since April 2009, PTA has been oscillating in 6600 to 9000 large boxes.

From 8 to September 2010, PTA oscillates in 7600 - 8000 small box.

After the national day, TA1101 went to a higher level.

At present, the main force is shifting to the warehouse for another month. It is expected that TA1101 will be in the range of 8400 - 9000, and the TA1105 8600 - 9500 wide oscillation is the main theme.