NDRC: The Price Level Of Production Data Will Increase By About 10% Throughout The Year.

Main three quarters

I. Changes in the prices of industrial means of production in the first three quarters

(1) the general price level has risen considerably.

Affected by the steady and relatively fast growth of domestic economy, especially the overall exuberant investment and industrial production, the prices of the means of production circulation rose by 17.4%, 16.5%, 19.8%, 19.3%, 16.7%, 11.4%, 7.7%, 6.1% and 5.9%, respectively, from 1 to September.

Judging from the main varieties, the average price of four kinds of steel products (rebar, wire rod, medium plate and cold-rolled sheet) in 22 city steel trading markets of the whole country is 4593 yuan per ton, up 16.1% over the same period last year. The average price of electrolytic copper and electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai Huatong nonferrous metal spot trading center is 57215 yuan and 15576 yuan per ton respectively, up 49.8% and 16.8% respectively, and the average Portland cement price in 36 large and medium-sized cities is 408 yuan per ton, up by 1.8% over the same period.

(two) prices fluctuate and fluctuate.

The price trend of producer goods has been greatly influenced by relevant regulation policies this year.

5085 yuan per ton, 18% higher than the first working day after the Spring Festival, but in late April, the prices of steel and other products continued to drop, and the average price of four kinds of steel dropped to 19.9% yuan per ton in mid July. The average price of the four kinds of steel decreased by 19.9% compared with the mid April high price. After that, the prices of steel and cement continued to rise, and the average price of four kinds of steel and cement was 4704 yuan and 421 yuan per ton respectively. Specifically, it can be divided into four stages: after the Spring Festival this year, with the continuous construction of the national support projects, the prices of domestic steel and other production materials continue to rise. In mid April, the average price of the four kinds of steel reached the average price.

(three) further convergence with the futures market and the international market trend.

Influenced by factors such as fluidity, domestic related products futures and electronic disk market, and the pformation of iron ore from annual pricing to short-term pricing, the correlation between domestic producer goods market price and futures market is further improved, with frequent fluctuations and large amplitude.

According to statistics, the biggest increase (decrease) of wire rod, electrolytic copper and electrolytic aluminum in the domestic market is 220 yuan, 3230 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively this year.

At the same time, non-ferrous metals, iron ore prices and other related international markets further enhanced.

Since September, the price of domestic electrolytic copper, electrolytic aluminum and iron ore has also risen sharply as the US dollar has weakened and the commodity prices in the international market have risen substantially.

Two, fourth quarter price trend forecast

From the perspective of promoting factors, the state will continue to implement policies to expand domestic demand, vigorously support the development of the western region, promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and speed up the elimination of backward production capacity, which will have a certain impact on the supply and demand relationship of the producer goods market, and support higher prices. At the same time, the depreciation of the US dollar may continue to push up global commodity prices, thereby affecting the prices of domestic production materials.

From the perspective of promoting and lowering factors, there is uncertainty in the world economy, and domestic real estate regulation is still keeping a high pressure. Construction in northern China has gradually entered the off-season.

Overall judgment, the fourth quarter industrial production prices will fluctuate slightly on the basis of current prices, including downward pressure on prices of construction steel and cement, and prices of non-ferrous metals, non construction steel, major chemicals and coal will fluctuate steadily.

The total price of the means of production in the whole circulation sector increased by 10% over last year.