Textile Enterprises Admitted: Cotton Prices Doubled, Bull Market Continued For Nearly Two Years

　 "We really dare not hoard goods. This price is raised by funds. Who knows when to fall."

Zhang Chengguang, the manager of Shenzhen textile and natural gas Textile Technology Development Co., told Nandu yesterday that despite the soaring cotton prices in the upper reaches of the river, the price of cotton and cotton yarn has risen sharply, resulting in a significant increase in the cost. However, it still maintains a cautious management style and will not be impulsive.

This year, the price increases of corn, mung beans, rice, soybeans, sugar, vegetables and other agricultural products (22.70,0.92,4.22%) have gone up and down. Recently, the focus of price rises has been spread to apples and cotton, and a large number of dealers have rushed to Shandong to win fruit. As for cotton, Xinjiang's cotton producing areas also started a "price war", a record high.

Farm products are crazy. Inflation and hot money speculation have become familiar words to ordinary people. However, when the last moment of madness arrives, when the hot money surges and the funds pour into the market, people and industry want to know when such madness will end.

　　 Cotton price Double bull market lasted for nearly two years

"In November 2008, cotton prices were about 12000 yuan a tonne, today (25) is 26000 yuan per ton, up 116%." Zhang Chengguang has been paying close attention to the price change of raw material cotton in the near future. "That is, the price of silk has also changed. In 2008, it was 14 tons, and now it is 35.5 tons, or 153.5%."

Zhang Chengguang's natural wind textile enterprise is a commercial textile enterprise in Shenzhen. Its products mainly involve cotton, linen and silk. After the economic crisis in 2008, it converted from exports to domestic sales. 70% of the products went to the domestic high-end market and supplied to the brand enterprises as clothing fabrics, and the raw materials needed include cotton and cotton yarn. Because of the high price of cotton prices, Zhang Cheng Guang's cost pressure has increased. "Take the most common 9088 cotton cloth as an example. At this time in 2008, it was about 4.6 yuan a meter, now it is 9.5 meters or so, and the cost of raw materials has more than doubled."

The bull market of cotton prices has been going on for nearly two years. China's cotton net data show that from 2008 to October, the price of cotton has been rising all the way, and by the end of July this year, the domestic cotton prices have increased rapidly. Data show that in the past two months, cotton has become the leader in commodity futures. After the new cotton started to scale, cotton prices rose almost 100 yuan per day. In August, the quotation of Zheng cotton futures contract was only 17000 yuan / ton. At present, spot and futures prices have already broken through the historical high of 25000 yuan per ton. Recently, cotton futures are jumping high and opening again.

Zhang Chengguang said that in the face of this situation, the export price of natural gas will increase, and it is expected to start raising prices next month. However, due to the price transmission time, it is expected that the overall price increase will be completed by the end of this year. "The profit of natural wind is better, and when it comes to a low-end route, profits will be lost." According to the author's understanding, influenced by the cotton price rise, the prices of cotton stained in the market are all rising, clothes, towels, bedding and so on. However, compared with the end product enterprises, the cost transmission pressure of production and trading enterprises is greater.

Hot money surges from mung beans to cotton and apples.

It is difficult to relax the price of agricultural products. Before cotton, there are "corn crazy", "beans you play", "garlic you ruthless", "sugar Gao Zong" and "Ginger your army" and so on, edible oil and vegetables are difficult to escape the price curse. While in futures market Last week, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures contract price closed at 6533 yuan / ton, this month rose 286 yuan, or 4.5%; Zhengzhou early rice price rose sharply last week, the early rice main futures contract 1105 closed at 2479 yuan / ton, rose 253 yuan, or 10%; the domestic cotton futures contract continued to 25145 yuan / ton last week, or 3.7% weeks.

Zhang Bing, a bean farmer, told the author of Nandu, "the purchase price of the village soybean has been given to 1.8 yuan, and our farmers are planning to wait for it again. The price may go to 1.9 yuan." Although it is expected that the income of soybeans will grow more than that of last year, Zhang Bing can not rest assured that "clothing, fruit and vegetable edible oil prices will go up, and this year's expenditure will increase by no less than 10%."

There are three main reasons for the rise in cotton prices, "insiders told the author. First, because of the natural environmental factors, the main cotton producing areas in China entered the winter ahead of September, and more rain and snow, which affected production. In August, the domestic cotton production is expected to become more intense. The two is the support of market demand. This year, the market has warmed up, the growth rate has reached 20%, and the orders of enterprises have increased. The three is speculation. "Demand has increased this year, but imports have not increased significantly. Under the expected reduction in production, many hot money began to pour into the main cotton producing areas such as Xinjiang. {page_break}

"There's too much money in the market." A grain industry analyst reluctantly said that the weather, arable land and other factors are indeed there, but if there is no huge capital push, it will not be so crazy, high currency issuance + low interest rates, such a combination so that funds are always looking for opportunities to profit, "the choice of space is these, the real estate market, stock market, futures market, agricultural products circulation and high inflation pressure under the good soil, with small dishes and easy preservation and other characteristics of agricultural products are easy to be hyped." Now there has been a rate increase, but to show the effect, we should continue to raise interest rates.

Not only cotton, but all kinds of agricultural products are attractive to hot money. According to recent news, dealers who rush to buy apples in Shandong, Shaanxi and other major apple producing areas have greatly increased. Some areas are more than two times more than last year. Apple also doubled its price in the terminal market. According to media reports, apple growers are already reluctant to sell apples, waiting for Apple prices to continue to rise. A large number of cold storage mushrooms, and many apple dealers have sent the acquired apples to the cold storage.

The global spread of price rises and cautious attitude towards processing industry

Insiders said that agricultural products Price increase Ultimately, it is not necessarily farmers who benefit, but also for manufacturing companies. Zhang Chengguang said that the procurement of raw materials has already had signs of tension. Because of the fluctuation of cotton prices, cotton mills used to have stocks for about 3 months, and now they wait and see, and dare not buy such a large amount.

In this round of price surges, the import factors can not be ignored, especially the agricultural products which are closely related to the international futures market. According to New York's October 22nd news, hailstorms and torrential rains hit Texas, which accounts for about half of the total cotton harvest in the region, triggering a new round of speculative funds and investors buying. Fundamentally speaking, any loss of cotton in the United States will result in the purchase of existing cotton. Traders say this will push cotton prices up.

Huang Junfei, a futures analyst at the Yangtze River, believes that for cotton, cotton may fall back in the first half of 2011. But when to end the craziness of agricultural products, analysts and agricultural practitioners are hard to conclude. "Our company is now maintaining zero inventory and order production. Hot money can come in hype, but we dare not hoard goods. Zhang Chengguang said that the current price increase is partly made up of funds, and is likely to fall. If domestic cotton import quotas increase, or there are other policy factors, prices will move at any time, so some of their colleagues are prudent operation.

Analysts told the author that the price surge must be repeated in all agricultural products. This is the price increase caused by multiple currencies. For grain and other large agricultural products, the supply has not changed fundamentally. The price increase should not be very large, and its price will hardly come down. For mung beans and other small products, prices are more volatile, and there have been substantial fluctuations this year. It is expected that the overall price change of agricultural products may appear in March and April next year.