Facing The Exchange Rate War &Nbsp; How To "Go Out"
The exchange rate has just become the focus of the past October, and more and more countries are competing to depreciate their currencies. The United States frequently makes difficulties in exchange rate issues, and Japan intervened in its exchange rate. The International Monetary Fund and the world bank's autumn annual meeting and the 20 country finance ministers' Conference all involve "remittance".
Currency wars
"...
In mid October, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and even under global pressure created a new high since 2005.
Against this background, how should we start the strategy of accelerating the implementation of the "going out" strategy at the five plenary session of the seventeen session of the Communist Party of China?
Renminbi "
Appreciation
":
foreign trade enterprise
Dancing under the sword
After getting the newspaper every day, first turn the economic news, receive the mobile phone newspaper first to browse the RMB exchange rate, and turn on the TV to see the financial channel first. Recently, this has become Mr. Shi's daily homework.
This private enterprise owner who has been exporting footwear for seven or eight years is now worried about exchange rate changes every day.
"Exchange rate changes are directly related to the export and order of products, which directly affect the development and survival of enterprises, the income of workers and even the jobs of their businesses."
Li Luojun, an internationally registered financial manager of Luoyang branch of Bank of China (CFP), understands Mr. Shi's feelings very well.
The impact of RMB appreciation on foreign trade enterprises is very large, and the risk resistance ability of general large factories is stronger. But for the vast majority of small and medium-sized enterprises, the exchange rate is just like the sword of Damour and Chris hanging on the head, and it does not know when it will fall.
According to Mr. Shi, a recent research report on the impact of RMB appreciation on export enterprises has made him feel heavy.
The report shows that the survey of 1900 export enterprises in more than a dozen provinces and municipalities, the majority of the export enterprises can withstand the appreciation of the renminbi is less than 2%.
The profit margins of small and medium-sized export enterprises are generally not high, especially for labor-intensive manufacturing industries such as clothing, shoes and hats.
Every order from negotiation to delivery and receipt of money generally takes at least 2 months. Taking a 100 thousand dollar order as an example, if the contract is signed, the exchange rate of US dollar to RMB is 1 to 6.67. When delivery is made 2 months later, the exchange rate will be 1: 6.63, and the profit will be reduced by 4 thousand yuan at once.
In this case, the total profit is only 30 thousand yuan.
As director of wealth management center of Everbright Bank and CFP, Xie Ke, points out that loss of exchange rate is known as a rigid loss. The appreciation of RMB once again reveals the weakness of China's export enterprises' low cost and low technology competition strategy in the current international competition.
Therefore, the appreciation of RMB will drive export oriented enterprises to expedite pformation and upgrading and enhance their innovative ability. By increasing the added value of products, we can improve the gold content and competitiveness of products, win the right to speak price and expand the profit margins.
"Spring River heating duck prophet" pformation and upgrading, looking for profit breakthroughs should become the long-term development path of enterprises, but what should we do now? {page_break}
Cooperation between banks and enterprises: responding positively to exchange rate fluctuations
There are different characteristics in the different stages of RMB appreciation. "If we are in the stage of unilateral decline in the US dollar against the renminbi, it is particularly important for us to choose how to import and export bank products and lock in the foreign exchange price as early as possible."
The director of financial affairs of an export large equipment enterprise in Jianxi District told reporters that the company signed a large equipment export list for more than 7 million US dollars, but the time limit for collecting foreign exchange was more than 1 and a half years. In order to lock in reasonable productive profits, a long-term settlement product of a bank in our city was chosen to avoid exchange rate loss of nearly 6 million yuan RMB.
"The strategy of accelerating the implementation of the" going out "strategy put forward in the fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee is a development strategy for China's capital, products, technology, services and personnel to go abroad to participate in global competition and international operation.
"The so-called currency wars are called financial wars or capital wars," he explained. "This is probably more accurate," explains the head of the International Settlement Department of the Luoyang branch of Bank of China.
Under the new international economic situation, the trade disputes caused by the sharp fall in commodity prices will continue to increase. Banks have the responsibility to give full play to their professional advantages so as to help enterprises maintain their legitimate rights and interests and avoid losses.
According to the purpose and the specific way of "going out", China's "going out" enterprises can be roughly divided into four types: import trade type, export trade type, overseas investment type, external engineering general contract and labor cooperation type.
Professional banks will provide different financial services for different types of enterprises in different stages of their operation. They should follow the principle of combination of commonness and individuality, actively promote product innovation, carry out flexible and effective product mix, and provide an all-around and one-stop integration of business services for "going out" enterprises. For example, there are 40 kinds of financial products services provided to Luoyang branch of the Bank of China, an export trade oriented enterprise.
During the interview, a bank employee said, "enterprises can lock in paction costs in advance by using some current financial portfolios to avoid exchange rate risks, and legally or reasonably postpone or advance payment in advance."
For example, she said, the contract for importing a complete set of equipment by an enterprise in Yichuan is priced in euros.
In June this year, after a full market analysis, the bank told the euro that the euro had fallen to the bottom of the stage, and that the purchase price should be signed as soon as possible. Then the euro really recovered and the enterprise saved nearly ten million of its cost.
Only this bank has helped the city's import enterprises earn nearly 10 million yuan in the past year.
In addition, the head of the International Settlement Department of the Luoyang branch of the Bank of China said that banks should also actively carry out customer training, guide enterprises to pay attention to the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on enterprise income, adjust production and operation strategies in a timely manner, pay attention to the international demand of products, promote industrial innovation and effectively reduce disputes.
During the interview, many bankers said that the renminbi is in the whirlpool. How to balance the internal and external balance, avoid disadvantages and take account of short-term growth and long-term interests is a severe test.
Improper disposal is likely to cause serious damage to China's real economy.
"We must always be prepared mentally and mentally."
When discussing the international competition of "self depreciating currency", most of the bankers interviewed quoted the statement of governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the central bank: "RMB exchange rate reform, China will proceed in a step-by-step manner."
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