Cotton Dispute Provoked Trouble, Wen Capital Rumors Four

　 Since October, the stock market is rising. Agriculture products The price is also not calm. All kinds of reasons, such as "speculation of idle capital" and "climate impact", have pushed almost every agricultural product to a record high price, especially cotton. Some people say, where there are business opportunities, there is Wenzhou capital figure. This time, when cotton prices soared, someone put the bill on the Wenzhou capital.

Wenzhou has a lot of money, but not a hot money.

In September this year, cotton in Xinjiang entered the takeover season. Mr. Wu, under the Yongjia bridge in Wenzhou, together with several friends, embarks from Wenzhou to Akesu, Xinjiang. It is far away from Wenzhou, but there are many Wenzhou businessmen. Mr. Wu said that there were 10 thousand people in the area below the Yongjia bridge, and over 20 thousand businessmen from Wenzhou.

Akesu is an important cotton production base in the whole country. Xinjiang Important cotton trading hub and textile industry gathering place. With "China Cotton capital" and "China's long staple cotton town", cotton production accounts for 1/8 of the whole country, and long staple cotton accounts for 93% of the total output of the country. "Cotton in China looks at Xinjiang and Xinjiang cotton looks at Akesu". A large number of businessmen gather here, of course, most of them are rushing toward cotton.

Cotton production has a very strong seasonality, and the main trading time, that is, in the view of businessmen, the most profitable period is from September to December each year. Therefore, this period is also the most exciting period in Akesu.

Mr. Wu and his friends usually stay in Wenzhou. In September, they will go to Akesu for a few months until the end of the cotton purchase process, and then return to Wenzhou. "We are like migratory birds." Mr. Wu said.

This year's cotton prices are somewhat more unexpected than most cotton traders like Mr Wu. When we first arrived in Akesu in September, the purchase price of cotton was 14 yuan / kg. After October, prices continued to rise, and reached a record high. At present, the price of cotton has reached 27 yuan / kg, almost doubled. Mr. Wu, who has been engaged in cotton business for more than 10 years, was shocked by such a price.

Cotton purchase prices are changing almost daily, and Wenzhou businessmen are actively buying cotton from cotton farmers and selling them to cotton. cotton Processing enterprises. According to Mr. Wu, the funds of Wenzhou businessmen in Akesu are about about 5000000000 yuan, most of which are used in the acquisition link, and less than 5% of the funds are used for planting cotton, and some other funds are used for cotton processing and other fields.

5 billion yuan of funds, 20 thousand people, on average, the amount of money per capita is not large. However, due to the large number of Wenzhou buyers, there are rumors that Wenzhou has a lot of hot money to drive up cotton prices. Mr. Wu said that this is very inconsistent with the facts. First of all, the estimated amount of funds currently used in the cotton trade in Akesu is around 70 billion yuan, and Wenzhou funds account for only 10% of these funds. Such funds do not have the right to speak for pricing. In addition, these funds can not be regarded as hot money, because Wenzhou businessmen have been engaged in cotton trading here for 20 years. Every year, how can they be regarded as idle money? "Idle money is a shot, but we are doing it over the years."

Profits did not soar as prices soared.

Many people think that businessmen in Wenzhou have made a lot of money in the big market of cotton, but Mr. Wu believes that this is also a misunderstanding. Mr. Wu said that this year's profit is estimated to be about 20% last year.

The first is that the local loan for cotton purchase is almost impossible this year, which is very demanding for the cash flow of the purchasers. A ton of cotton, the purchase price of 20 thousand yuan, let go a long time, perhaps as the price increases, profits will be higher, but in hand, without cash flow, can not carry out the next batch of acquisitions. Therefore, a batch of goods will not stay too long on hand. The cotton growers have already raised their prices when the goods are ready to go into the next shipment. In this way, profits will not be as big as theory. For example, the price of a house rose from 1 million yuan to 2 million yuan. If you buy it at 1 million yuan, you always get it in your hand and sell it for 2 million yuan, and you earn 1 million yuan. But when you sell it at 1 million 50 thousand yuan, you buy it at 1 million 500 thousand yuan, sell it at 1 million 550 thousand yuan, buy it at 1 million 900 thousand yuan, sell it at 2 million yuan, and finally sell it at 2 million yuan, but you really earn no 1 million yuan. Due to the shortage of cash flow, the amount of purchase is half less than that of the same period last year. Mr Wu bought more than 150 cotton cars last year, and estimated that this year he could only receive 70 wagons.

In addition, even if the cash flow on hand is relatively abundant, some people dare not hold it in their hands for a long time. "Such a price, the bubble is very big, no one can guarantee when it will fall." Mr. Wu said, if you want to know, copper is only 60 thousand yuan / ton, and cotton has risen to 30 thousand yuan / ton. This is not what the bubble is. Cotton can be planted. Because of the climate this year, the cotton gap is bigger, but next year's situation is not necessarily. As long as the relevant departments announce that the cotton planting area will reach a certain quantity next year, the price will not be maintained. In addition, the price of cotton is too much, which also leads to a reduction in the profits of textile mills. When the profit is low to a certain extent, these textile enterprises may quit. Cotton prices will definitely drop if textile mills do not buy them. "Fear of heights" also led to many people did not fully enjoy the profit margins brought by this wave of market.

The big increase in cotton prices did not bring any additional benefits to the cotton traders who bought cotton, but in the futures market, these cotton merchants have made a lot of gains or even exceeded the proceeds in the spot market. Mr Wu has invested about ten million yuan in the spot area and has nearly $10 million in the futures sector. Buy Cotton in the spot area, and do more cotton in the futures sector. "Futures earn more than cash." Mr. Wu said that like him, there are many people on the spot futures this year.

The risk of accumulation can not be prevented.

Mr Wu, who is in the middle of it, is aware of the "foam ingredients" of cotton prices. Analysts outside the body also believe that such a price is unlikely to last for long.

Chen Xiaoyu, general manager of Wenzhou Business Department of Zhongda futures, said that a short price spike in agricultural products can be decided by a number of reasons, such as the massive intervention of the funds, the reduction of output due to the weather, and the accumulation of investors' interest. But ultimately, the price depends on the demand of the market. After all, agricultural products are different from some non renewable resources, and agricultural products can be cultivated. This year, the price is too high, the planting area will increase next year, and the supply and demand relationship will probably turn around, so the price will drop. In the history, there are many examples.