"Price Increase Concept Stocks" Investment In Three Ways

As the Federal Reserve announced the implementation of the "two loose monetary policy" last week, global commodity prices came out of the strongest rally in the year. The path of inflation is similar to that in 2007 and 2008, that is, inflation is imported into emerging countries through the rise in prices of commodities and agricultural products, and then inflation rises spiralling in emerging countries. It is expected that the CPI will be released in October, reaching a new high of 4% in October. The price of domestic agricultural products continues to rise. After the rise of international commodity prices, input transmission will also lag behind the wholesale prices of industrial enterprises. PPI is likely to rise again next month. In addition, energy saving and emission reduction have brought about a sharp rise in prices in the chemical industry after rising prices of high energy consumption cement, building materials, non-ferrous metals and energy. Generally speaking, inflation is spreading in various fields and can be predicted. A shares The hype market around the theme of inflation will also start in full swing.

　　 Agriculture products: Price increase Trend is hard to change in the short term.

In recent years, the price rise of agricultural products is very common and alarming. Since the second half of this year, cotton prices have hit record highs. The main contract of cotton futures in Zhengzhou City has increased by 73%. The price of sugar has gone up, and the main contract has increased by 41%. The price of strong wheat has risen sharply, and the main contract has increased by 13%. The main reason for the rising price of agricultural products is the tight supply and demand. It is estimated that domestic cotton output will be 6 million 960 thousand tons in 2010/2011, the demand will be 10 million 600 thousand tons, and the import cotton will be 2 million 740 thousand tons, which will account for 26% of domestic consumption. Domestic cotton supply shortage pattern has become increasingly fierce. It is estimated that 12 million 700 thousand tons of raw sugar will be produced in 2010/2011, 15 million 500 thousand tons of domestic demand, 2 million 800 thousand tons of supply and demand, 1 million 500 thousand tons of imported raw sugar, and the inventory consumption ratio will further decline to 9.2%.

In the short term, the driving factors of the price increase of agricultural products will not change significantly, and the price of agricultural products will still have upward driving force. From the investment point of view, the domestic listed companies engaged in cotton production, breeding and related businesses will benefit directly from the rise in cotton prices. Individual stocks recommended that the focus should be on the current low valuation and early warning of the market's concern for Hua Fu color spinning and Lu Tai A. Lu Tai Zi has 130 thousand acres of cotton fields in Xinjiang, its industrial chain is complete, its ability to resist risks is strong, and the gross margin of high-end products is as high as 34%. From the valuation point of view, the valuation of Lu Tai A is the lowest among the 46 listed companies in the sector.

　　 Food: the price of products is rising and pressure is great.

The pressure of rising prices in recent stages mainly comes from food prices. In September, consumer prices rose 3.6%, up 0.6%. Judging from the sub item, the price of food increased by 8% over the same period last year. Compared with the 0.5% expansion in August, CPI2.69% has become the main factor to push up the September CPI, with a contribution of 72%. In the food category, the most significant increase was in vegetables (related data showed that the vegetable chain rose 8% in September, the meat chain increased by 1.6%, and the grain category increased by 1.3%).

Sub industry, liquor industry and other sub sectors of the anti inflation ability is particularly prominent, can be concerned about the midline. During the Mid Autumn Festival, liquor, rice wine and wine entered the peak season of consumption. Reports on the price increase of related liquor companies have also been heard. It is expected that high-end liquor will be transferred to the factory price in succession, such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye. In addition, Guangming dairy, Tian Bang shares, dairis, Dongling cereals and oils, Jin De development can also be involved in bargain hunting.

　　 Chemical industry: Price increase Raise profits greatly

Historically, the trend of the chemical sector is highly correlated with the purchase price index. Since September, the purchasing price of raw materials in the middle reaches has increased rapidly; and the leading function of the PMI purchase price index to the gross profit level of the chemical industry also indicates that the latter may change substantially and the higher profit elasticity will receive more attention.

In particular, it is worth mentioning that the rise in cotton prices has led to downstream production companies using more viscose staple fibers as an alternative to cotton yarns due to cost factors, thus increasing the demand for these chemical products. Therefore, the rise in cotton prices also has favorable factors for chemical sub industries such as viscose, staple fiber and pulp production. According to the demand of 10 million 600 thousand tons of cotton in China, it is assumed that the replacement share of 5% is equivalent to the demand of 530 thousand tons of polyester staple fiber. In 2009, the demand of 7 million 630 thousand tons of polyester staple fiber in China will directly lead to an increase of 6.9% in the demand for short fiber industry. Since September, the price of polyester industry chain has increased, and short fiber has increased by 33%. Among them, due to the mid 2011 before the industry's new capacity is only 1 million 400 thousand tons, PTA supply and demand will remain tight, the economy is expected to continue until the middle of next year. In terms of stocks, investors can pay attention to Rongsheng petrochemical, *ST Guanghua, Huaxi Village and Xia Ke environmental protection.