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November 10Th Cotton Review: Cotton Market Slump Ended Seven Rally

2010/11/11 11:28:00 30

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Wednesday (11.10) the ICE Intercontinental Exchange of New York ended seven consecutive days of record highs.

trend

It fell sharply today, and cotton fell 5.58 cents in December, close to a 6 day limit of daily decline, or down 4%, to close at $1.4565 / pound.

Sharon Johnson, senior cotton analyst at the first Capitol group in Atlanta, said: "the assumption is never a problem. It's just a hypothesis."

However, Tom Mikulski, senior marketing strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago, said that the continued demand from China still supports cotton prices while cotton production is reduced. The US Department of agriculture forecast Tuesday that the end of the US inventory fell to its lowest level since 1925.

In the early morning of December, the contract rose 2.20 cents, or 1%, at a time of 1.5343 US dollars. Investors believe that the market is still stable and strong, but the energy is not as strong as it was in the last two days.

The main reason for the market crash on Tuesday is the good supply and demand report of the US Department of agriculture.

However, demand is still strong in the near future.

US Department of agriculture's latest report cut 150000 packages in the US

Textile mill

Dosage to 3 million 450 thousand bales.

Exports increased by 250000 packs to 15 million 750 thousand packs due to the expansion of foreign demand, and so far the export sales were unusually hot.

The US stocks dropped 500000 packs at the end of the year to 2 million 200 thousand packs, the lowest level since 1925.

The average price forecast for growers in the year of sale is 74 cents -86 cents / pound, with an increase of 7 cents at both ends.

If so, the middle point of prediction will be the highest price since the American Civil War.

The world cotton forecast for 2010/11 shows that consumption and ending inventory are all lower than those reported last month, and the supply is reduced.

Inventories were reduced by 3 million packages at the beginning of the year. The supply and demand balance sheet was revised in 2009/10, reflecting the shortage of textile mills.

The world's output dropped by 1 million 400 thousand packages, of which China, the United States, Pakistan, Greece and Turkey reduced production, but were partly offset by increased production in Brazil, Australia and Uzbekistan.

Because the supply of cotton can not meet the demand, the world cotton

Consumption

3% lower than last month, 1.4% less than last year, to 116 million 800 thousand bales.

Compared with last month, cotton consumption in China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, Vietnam, Brazil and Turkey decreased, but partly offset by the increase in India. India's cotton consumption is expected to increase due to restrictions on exports.

World Trade data increased by nearly 800 thousand packs last month, while China's imports increased by 2 million, but partly offset by the decrease in imports from other countries.

World end inventories decreased by 5% to 42 million 200 thousand bales.

In 2009/10 and 2010/11, the world inventory to consumption ratio decreased to 37% and 36% respectively, the lowest level since 1993/94.

India agriculture minister Sharad Pawar said that due to the growing demand for textile industry, India banned cotton exports in the first few months, but India farmers should have the power to use the global price advantage to increase profits, while global prices may fall after February.

He said the government might consider cotton exports beyond 5 million 500 thousand cotton quotas in December.

Some senior officials in India say that in the last week of December, the government of India may consider whether to allow exports of cotton beyond the quota.

On Wednesday, the US stock market went up and down, and the market overcame the uncertainties before the G20 summit and ended up.

Last week, the United States first filed for unemployment benefits and the trade deficit declined, prompting the US dollar to rise.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 9.76 points to 11356.51 points, or 0.09%, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 15.80 points to 2578.78 points, or 0.62%, while the standard & Poor's 500 index rose 5.34 points to 1218.74 points, or 0.44%.

Gold futures for December delivery fell by 10.80 US dollars, closing at $1399.30 an ounce, ending the 4 consecutive trading day.

The New York Mercantile Exchange delivered crude oil futures in December, up 1.09 US dollars, at $87.81 a barrel, the highest closing price since October 2008, or 1.3%.

In November 9, 2010, New York certified 26557 cotton bags and 13628 bags to be certified.