Cotton Prices Soared &Nbsp; Replacement Products Followed Closely.

High cotton price Era

Due to climate reasons, this year

The highest price of processing plants in Shandong and Hebei is 7.3-7.4 yuan / kg, compared with the 3.5 yuan / kg purchase price doubled during the same period last year, and cotton farmers still sell.

At present, the state is increasing the supply of new cotton and the amount of imported cotton.

Liu Qing, an analyst at Xinhu futures, pointed out that most of the Xinjiang cotton shipped at present is in the hands of traders. The callback effect on cotton prices is not obvious, while the imported American cotton will only arrive in India after December. When the imported cotton in India is estimated to arrive at 15 after November 1st, some cotton exporters in India have repeatedly failed to increase their cotton prices. Therefore, it is still uncertain whether the cotton imports can be successfully imported.

Whether Xinjiang cotton and imported cotton can solve the strong domestic demand will be the key to the callback of cotton in the future.

In November 11th, Zheng cotton futures almost all line down, of which the main contract 1105 contract sharply lower 31900 yuan / ton, then fell to the limit, continued yesterday's downward trend.

Liu Qing pointed out that the main reasons for the decline of Zheng cotton futures were mainly in two aspects: first, the impact of the fall of 10 cotton futures in November; two, the influence of national policy regulation on investment funds, making the bears occupy a dominant position.

She pointed out that, before China's strong cotton demand and sustained buying, ICE's cotton futures rose for eight consecutive days.

Prior to November 8th, all cotton contracts for the ICE period were all closed. In November 9th, the ICE cotton market closed at two degrees.

By November 10th, by the impact of Zheng cotton futures' closing line and the withdrawal of speculative capital, the ICE cotton fell sharply after the record high, of which the ICE cotton contract in December closed down 5.58 cents, closing at 1.4565 U.S. dollars / pound.

Substitutes for usurpation

The sharp rise in cotton prices has led to a rise in the price of its substitutes.

In the domestic textile industry, the proportion of cotton in spinning raw materials is about 50%, polyester staple fiber is about 35%, viscose staple fiber is 7%-10%, because domestic cotton production is insufficient and price is high, the average price of cotton substitute Dacron polyester fiber has risen to 19500 yuan / ton, up 2500 yuan from last Friday, and the spot price difference between cotton and cotton reduced to ten thousand, but it is still higher than the normal price range of 3000 yuan.

At the same time, viscose staple fiber prices continue to rise, the current price has reached 29500 yuan / ton, and domestic spot cotton prices are basically flat.

According to the analysis report of Everbright Securities, at present, domestic cotton demand is more than 10 million tons, and the gap is about 3 million 500 thousand tons. Assuming that 5% share is replaced by polyester staple fiber, which is equivalent to 500 thousand tons of polyester staple fiber, while domestic polyester fiber production capacity is 5 million 800 thousand tons, plus 2 million 800 thousand tons of medium and small chemical fiber, a total capacity of 8 million 600 thousand tons, and cotton prices are soaring, which will directly increase the demand for short fiber industry by 5.8%.

But Liu Qing pointed out that because of the pursuit of cotton products, chemical fiber products are difficult to replace the status of cotton.

As a substitute for cotton, the chemical fiber board has been strong in the near future, and has been on the rise in November 8th and 9. Among them, Xia Ke environmental protection, Jinlong shares and other stocks were trading at once. At the same time, the upstream product PTA of the chemical fiber products also ushered in a strong rise in price, and Zhengzhou PTA futures have set up four continuous trading this week.