Ye Tan: Prepare For A Few Years Of Low Growth And High Inflation.

　　 Transformation The process is always a painful process. In the next few years, we will bear the pressure of economic growth decline, CPI rise, exchange rate rise, hundreds of millions of farmers entering the city, and the reform of income distribution system.

The overall level of China's economic operation has declined, and the export led economic fever has gradually subsided and investment will remain high. In October 16th, Tsinghua University's China and World Economic Research Center (CCWE) issued "China's macroeconomic forecast and analysis in the third quarter of 2010", which predicted that "China's economic operation will slow down moderately. China's import and export growth rate will obviously slow down, and the growth rate in 2011 will reach a very low level": the growth rate of China's GDP will be around 10% in 2010 and 9.5% in 2011. In fact, in the next few years, China's GDP is likely to drop to single digits. Only the less developed areas in the Midwest and the East will maintain more than two digit growth as a result of investment. Liu Shijin, deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, made a similar prediction, saying that next year China's economic growth rate may be around 9%, which will slow down compared with this year.

Along with the economic downturn, CPI has become the norm in more than 4%, and the purchasing power of money has declined. CPI reached 3.5% in August this year, the highest level in 22 months. This is not the end. CPI will remain at a high level in September.

　　 CPI is under heavy pressure from three aspects.

One is imported inflation, the global currency has not been able to co-ordinate, and wide money and high inflation have become the norm. At present, including other parts of Europe and America, the price of other consumer goods is not low. According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, the average price of imported soybeans has risen for three consecutive months since July this year. The average price of Chinese imported soybeans increased by 5.3% in September this year compared with July. At the same time, the spot price index of sugar has historically exceeded 6000 yuan / ton mark, and the wholesale price of sugar has risen 70% compared with the same period last year. Prices of basic living goods and oil and other resource goods are rising sharply.

The two is endogenous inflation. In the process of urbanization, we must pay back the past social security system and income distribution imbalance. According to the Xinhua news agency, looking forward to "12th Five-Year", China's total economic volume will be the second place in the world, and the per capita GDP will exceed US $5000. Social security and raising the minimum wage need someone to pay. When the wealth of society is not enough to support, the only way is inflation. {page_break}

In the future, China's CPI is likely to remain at a high level of over 4%. Economist Li Yining said in October 16th that imported inflation would be inevitable if international oil prices, iron ore prices and grain prices continued to rise. 3% of the inflation rate is applicable to the west, and China is likely to maintain a 9% growth rate in the near future. If 9% of the economic growth rate also takes 3% inflation rate as a warning line, it will bring a lot of problems to the economy. The inflation rate of 4.5% can be regarded as a warning line and is acceptable to society. Considering the statistical method of the National Bureau of statistics, 3.5% of CPI's accession to real estate and so on may be over 4%.

If this year's exchange rate, exports and real estate have just begun to adjust, they are still in the stage of warm boiled frog, and there will be a big reshuffle next year.

The export situation is wonderful this year, but many manufacturing enterprises are already under pressure. In the three quarter of this year, China's trade surplus was the highest since 2008, and its foreign exchange reserves increased to 2 trillion and 600 billion US dollars. The sharp rise in commodity prices has resulted in a significant increase of 16% in import value over the previous month. It is worth noting that customs data show that the growth rate of imports of processing trade products is less than that of total imports. If the RMB exchange rate rises by 3-5% per year, then there will be no place to upgrade the coastal low-end manufacturing industry. The current trend is to make long list of short changed orders. Some manufacturers even reluctantly cut off their loved ones, and do not pick up them because they often lose more money.

There are real estate companies in the shuffle. As long as the real estate continues to be regulated and the property tax will be introduced next year, investors who support the high housing prices will drop sharply if they withdraw from the market. In the stock market, the real estate listed companies are in a downturn, and the cost of real estate in the trust market and the offshore market is as high as 20%.

　　 Adjustment of economic structure Endure High inflation and low growth It is the necessary cost. But in the same heart, economic transition In the process of obtaining public support, the most important thing is to reform the income distribution system and improve the efficiency of the government and central enterprises. At any time, as long as people realize that the cost of reform is mainly borne by the general income class, any reform will not succeed.