Ma Guangyuan: China's Economic Ecology Is Serious "Desertification".

In the evening of November 10th, when the central bank decided to raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, the National Bureau of statistics immediately released the economic data for October, CPI as high as 4.4%, a new high in the year, 0.8% higher than that in September, which is startling. 10.

In September, when CPI created a new high of 3.6% in the year of September, the trend of the whole price is showing a trend of popularity, whether food or non food. The data of urban food retail price monitoring released by the NDRC in October showed that the prices of 24 kinds of products, including vegetables, grain and oil, fresh meat and fruits, rose to varying degrees, while the average retail prices of vegetables of 15 main varieties, such as cucumber, tomato and rape, rose by nearly 10.1% compared with that in September. The price of eggs in Beijing has doubled, and that of potatoes has soared 4 times. Apple has become a "value depression" and it has been eyed by funds. Of course, such a startling and realistic price increase ratio. 10.

What has led to the current trend of price inflation? The national development and Reform Commission and the central bank have shirk their responsibilities. The central bank said that the price rise was simply attributed to the "Super Science" and "unobjectivity" of the excessive currency. But as for how to be scientific and objective, the central bank did not give the answer. Indeed, judging from the current inflation factors, the global major drain of money is the most important factor affecting prices. Countries' currencies are more serious. The latest quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States has made global inflation worries fade. Commodity prices have continued to rise. Oil has been on the market for more than $80, and the accelerated influx of hot money has made imported inflation very serious. Under such circumstances, the NDRC finally admitted that it would be very difficult to control prices within 3% this year. 10.

However, it is puzzling that even though everyone now agrees that the currency has become the chief culprit of the current soaring prices, 43 trillion of the super currency is 2 times the current GDP, but in fact, the relationship between China's GDP and the amount of currency issued has been in a state of excess since the reform and opening up in 1978. Super development is not a unique phenomenon today, but a consistent feature of China's economy. Since the reform and opening up, the ratio of M2 to GDP in China has been increasing. In 1990, it reached 1.85 in 0.72004 years and 1.6 times in growth rate. From 1992 to now, the growth rate of printed banknotes per year has been around 23%, and the ratio of M2 to GDP has accelerated. In 1990~1996 years, the ratio increased by 2~8 percentage points per year. Since 1997, it has increased by more than 10 percentage points per year, up by more than 13 percentage points, which is unprecedented in the world. The ratio of M2 to GDP is not only the highest in the world, but also the fastest. Even so, if we look at it in 90s, there will be two serious inflation in China, one from 92 to 95 years, one from 05 to 08 years. The first time there is no doubt that the currency is overshooting, and the second is due to the global excess liquidity. {page_break}

The question is coming. Since China's currency exceeds the normal level, why inflation has not become normal? Moreover, we should understand that since the end of 08, the "moderately loose monetary policy" has been unprecedented in the history of China's monetary policy. China's monetary policy has never been able to mention that under the "loose" situation, it has been seriously overweight. After easing it, we find that the proportion between GDP and the issue of money has not changed significantly. In 09 years, the proportion of GDP and M2 is 1.8 times, and this year's year-end ratio is basically the same, which is basically the same as the proportion in China's history. It is undeniable that the super currency has indeed become the main inducement of the current round of price rise. But we need to explore why there is no inevitable inflation in the past years. 10.

The root is that the fundamentals of China's real economy have changed a lot. Since the beginning of 05 years, China is on the one hand a leap of GDP, and the other is the virtualization and bubble of the economy. Due to the huge profits of the real estate bubble and the deterioration of the industrial environment caused by private capital, the capital has gradually concentrated on the real estate and some areas that are easy to be hyped, and the willingness of the people to do business is very low. A lot of people have strong desire to do business, plus the manufacturing industry is in an upward cycle, and 10 trillion of the currency will be released, and 8 trillion will soon turn from currency into capital, and become raw materials, parts and equipment. In the current serious economic virtualization, only 10 trillion billion of the money will be converted into capital, 8 trillion of which will enter the virtual economic field such as real estate and stock market, or still exist in monetary form. This means that investment in manufacturing and private entities as economic vegetation is becoming more and more barren, and the storage capacity of the whole economy will decline. Once there is a flood disaster, the water will have no place to go. Once the real estate is squeezed, once the real estate is squeezed, even a small amount of water will lead to price debris flow. That is to say, from 78 years to now, even if the currency is excessive, the channels for private investment will be high. 10.

In the case of economic desertification, we can see that since July this year, CPI has come back to the 3 era. Despite the fact that all sides have been secretive, China has entered the inflation era since the second half of the year. In August, when CPI rose to 3.5% again, in September, CPI hit a new high of 3.6%. According to the most optimistic forecast, at least two years, China's price index once again returned to 3%, basically hopeless. In China, the negative interest rate and excess liquidity, the pressure of value preservation has led to another round of speculation. Moreover, it must be pointed out that China's current CPI is seriously underestimated. That is to say, according to the current statistics of CPI, China's price level is far more than 3.6%. Under the condition of CPI being underestimated, the people actually assume higher inflation tax than CPI. In fact, it is to let the public pay for the rapid growth of the economy, in fact, it is to levy taxes on the residents, in essence, in order to maintain the speed of economic growth and make the residents bear more development costs, in fact, it is to levy taxes on residents. 10.

　　 Economic desertification China's economy is in existence. Excessive currency At any time, there will be an outbreak. Price debris flow Therefore, the central bank must be sober to see that the fundamentals of China's economy are no longer the same as before. The impact of so many currencies and the imbalance of income distribution have led to the loss of residents' income in the past ten years. After 30 years of development, the desert has occupied most of the territory of the Chinese economy. We are short of the money to resist the flood of money. If we do not keep the money in mind, we will be a rare malignant inflation. 10.