Yongan Futures: The Market Continues To Weaken, &Nbsp; PTA Continues To Fall Sharply.

Market review:

Monday, PTA futures Opened on the limit board, but then the cotton limit plate opened, PTA limit board also opened, the price rebounded, but in the afternoon, as the market weakened again, PTA prices fell. The main contract 1105 opened at 9804, the highest 10338, ending in 9914, compared with the previous day's average price fell 686 yuan / ton, or 6.47%. 786688 hands traded, 32734 to 147384. From the position of the top 20 positions in the main contract, today many bulls and more short positions have been added, indicating that the bulls are optimistic about the PTA market outlook.

　　 Spot market :

Although PTA futures trading again fell, but due to last weekend's spot drop too fast, after this week, the downward adjustment began to narrow, the market began to temporarily return to rationality in the short term. On the inside side, after the opening of the morning, part of the spot reported 9800-10000 yuan / ton, although the opening buyers accepted the wait and see, but the overall atmosphere of the market was better than Friday, panic selling was not much, some of the counter offer was in the range of 9300-9500 yuan / ton, but the overall turnover was still not high.

On the outside side, the PTA offered a few initial offers in the morning, but the atmosphere of buyers' enquiries was better than that of last Friday. Of course, the price of the offer is still not high. In the afternoon, part of the Korean spot seller's intention was near $1150, and a small offer of about $1120-1130, but the intention of the seller at low price was not strong enough, and the spot trading was slightly higher.

The spot market prices began to stabilize, the panic selling dropped, and the market returned to reason, but only a few factories had Replenishment demand The market spanaction is still deadlocked, which will also restrict the price rise of the PTA futures market, and the futures price is expected to gradually stabilize.

Upstream raw materials:

Last Friday, China's possible increase in interest rate rumors made crude oil tumble and downstream products plummeted. WTI fell 2.93 to 84.88; naphtha fell 17 US dollars to 798-802 dollars / ton CFR Japan; heterogeneous MX fell 59 US dollars to 1033-1034 US dollars / ton FOB Korea; Asia PX fell 121 US dollars to 1223-1224 U.S. dollars / ton FOB Korea, Europe fell 121 US dollars to 1143-1147 U.S. dollars / ton FOB Rotterdam; the United States dropped 150 US dollar to 150 dollar / ton FOB Gulf of America.

At present, the profit of PTA is at a high level of 2000 yuan / ton, and the huge profit margins have weakened the cost supporting role of PX. At present, the influence of upstream market on PTA is weak.

Downstream market:

The polyester chip market is still on the sidelines, and market confidence is waiting for further recovery. Most of the factories in Xiaoshao District dropped the mainstream price of semi optical chips to 13000 yuan / ton cash or near March acceptance. The price of individual second-line brands in Jiangsu was 11800 yuan / ton. The actual turnover in the market is still dominated by wait-and-see. There is no clear price yet, and confidence in the downstream has not yet been restored.

The market of polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is still in the process of adjustment. However, the higher the quoted price is, the larger the callback rate is at 1000-1500 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer has adjusted the weekend, and the rate of reduction has correspondingly decreased to 500-600 yuan / ton. At present, the overall turnover of the market is light, and some factories actually have many favorable deals, but the downstream purchasing has a wait-and-see attitude. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester production and marketing downturn, most of the 3-5, some factories slightly higher 6-7, local low is only 1-2; downstream weaving overall wait and see, to consume pre inventory.

The overall atmosphere is weak, and the market has no market price. Most of the direct spinning polyester and short factories continue to offer no quotations. Some of the quotations are maintained at 20000 yuan / ton cash, and the factory quotation is reduced to 18200 yuan / ton in the early quotation, and then 500 to 17700 yuan / ton at noon. In terms of market turnover, the futures market continues to be low, and the downstream market is cautious in purchasing. The market spanaction has heard that some of the polyester and short factory offer price is 19500 yuan / ton, and some traders also have low price running goods, and the downstream manufacturers have few dishes.

Slicing has been adjusted ahead of schedule last week. The price of polyester polyester products in the lower reaches has been adjusted. Today, the price of filament yarn is larger, most of which are reduced by more than 2000 yuan, and staple fiber is relatively strong because of the shortage of goods, and the price is reduced by 400 yuan / ton. Despite the price reduction, the enthusiasm of the market is not high, mainly due to the limited capacity of terminal manufacturing for high priced raw materials, and more parking. In addition, when the consumption period of PET bottles is low, the ability to withstand high raw materials is very weak. Many sets of devices announce the shutdown and maintenance, and the maintenance period is longer. The weakening of demand for PTA will inhibit the price rise in the short term.

Comprehensive comment:

At present, the upstream cost support is limited, the downstream market is flat, the product price is callback, the PTA spot market is stalemate, the whole polyester industry chain is basically calm, and PTA will continue to shake and adjust in the near future, looking for a new price platform. From a technical point of view, 9700 Yuan line has technical support, 9200 strong support nearby, PTA is expected to find the bottom of the callback in 9200-9700.

However, the recent market volatility is very fierce and the risks are increasing. It is suggested that light warehouse operations be carried out, mainly based on intra day trading, and wait for the stabilization of the market situation.