The Black Market On The Cotton Futures Market Is Interlaced With Profits Inside And Outside The Country On Wednesday.

Under the double pressure of domestic and international profits, in November 17th, the domestic futures market suffered a rare black Wednesday with a full fall.

"Since November, the market volatility has been relatively large, the upsurge in early stage and the sharp fall in the latter period are mainly due to changes in the expectations of capital for the bubble."

Zhu Bin, director of Nanhua Futures Research Institute, told reporters that he believed that the further decline of the market led to a chain reaction.

A number of Futures Company researchers said that the dual impact of foreign and domestic macro environment is the main reason for the recent decline in futures prices, including concerns about domestic tightening policies and European debt problems.

Black market for Wednesday

In November 17th, the overnight market of commodities was completely down. On the 17 day of the opening of the domestic market, 10 varieties were unexpectedly sealed on the limit board. Among them, bean products and three major oils and fats were all down.

Subsequently, long funds in cotton, gum and sugar and other leading varieties want to go all out, the intraday rebound, but is still in the mid-term adjustment, soybean oil is still sealed down.

In the afternoon, the A shares dived, further defeated commodity confidence, and cotton and gum returned to the limit plate. The market was miserable and green. At the close, the thirteen major varieties of domestic futures such as Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai zinc, rubber, corn, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, plastic, palm oil, cotton, rapeseed oil and PTA13 all fell to a halt.

Among them, Zhengzhou cotton futures opened on a daily basis, although there was a rebound in the market, but in

"The collective collapse of the commodity market indicates that the common factors are affecting.

Tightening policy expectation

Many researchers said that the government's interest rate increase is expected and future.

"The November CPI index is the time when the market is expected to change."

Zhu Bin said.

In November 11th, the National Bureau of statistics released macroeconomic data.

In October, CPI rose sharply to 4.4% over the same period last year, of which food prices rose sharply, and CPI, a non food chain, rebounded slightly, pushing up overall inflation to a high level in the past two years.

"3.6% of the inflation rate is tolerable, and 4.4% is too high.

4.4% figures were released, and the market had strong expectations for tightening monetary policy.

The adjustment of reserve ratio also shows the attitude of tightening monetary policy.

Zhu Bin said.

16, the three major events raised interest rate expectations further.

On the same day, the central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point increase in the deposit reserve ratio; the Xinhua news agency quoted Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council as saying that the State Council is developing measures to curb the excessive price rise; meanwhile, Zhou Xiaochuan said that the upward pressure on prices needs to arouse the attention of all parties.

A series of actions make the industry generally believe that the central bank will not again exclude, the year will increase interest rates or raise the deposit reserve ratio.

"The major adjustment of cotton, oil and sugar and other agricultural products is mainly related to inflation expectations."

Li Kun, a stock index and agricultural product researcher at Guangzhou Everbright futures research and development department, said.

"Policy factors are relatively large."

Weng Mingxiao, a steel analyst at new lake futures, analyzes this impact factor.

"Liquidity tightening has a relatively large impact.

Because of CPI's expectation, there are many possible measures to control prices in China.

The role of futures market is finally shown by the influence of capital.

In addition, the domestic release of information to combat more information.

Wu Qiujuan, a senior analyst at the new lake Futures Research Institute, said in the field of agricultural products.

European debt crisis double negative

Earlier, the introduction of loose monetary policy in the United States led to a weaker dollar, creating a rise in commodities. However, the recent Irish debt crisis changed the trend of the weaker dollar and increased the possibility of a stronger US dollar.

"Because of the Irish crisis, the dollar has risen sharply.

The market feared that the spread of the Irish debt crisis and the instability of the euro led to a sharp decline in the value of the euro and the US dollar to go up, affecting the decline of commodities. "

Li Qiansun believes that Ireland's debt crisis is an important factor affecting the trend of commodities.

Wu Qiujuan analyzed that the crisis was a double negative.

On the one hand, on the economic side, the European economy is going to have problems and the world economy will be affected. On the other hand, the exchange rate will be bad. The Irish crisis may push the US dollar to rebound and lead to a decline in the commodity trend.

Ireland's budget deficit hit a record high this year, triggering investors' fears of default in the country and the spread of the crisis in EU countries.

At present, the euro area wants Ireland to apply for assistance, but Ireland insists on solving it in its own way.

The dollar rose sharply during the New York session on Tuesday, and the US dollar index reached its highest level since 79.409 28.

At the close, the US dollar index was 79.21, up 0.78% from the closing index of 78.59 on 15.

The euro was gloomy, falling rapidly and falling below 1.3500, breaking 1.3459's lowest price in nearly 2 months.

In addition, the domestic futures market has a strong linkage with the international market. Li Kun told reporters that the decline in sugar prices was mainly due to a big drop in sugar on the outside market. 17, the domestic soybean futures opened direct limit, except for the soybean meal plate opened, and other varieties all day in the limit position were also related to the decline of CBOT soybean beans last night.