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Central Line Over 30 Thousand Material No Suspense, Cotton Price Adjustment Is Inevitable.

2010/11/18 16:05:00 40

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Short Term Adjustment Of Cotton Price In Midline

After a great adjustment of cotton, the author visited a large cotton spinning enterprise in Shandong and communicated with the business operators on the spot.

Judging from the market situation, the current adjustment of cotton prices is regarded as a result of short-term regulation.

As spot prices remain strong, only a small decline, making the market a rare spot premium status, is a rare opportunity to buy hedging.

At present, the company's profits are good. After the recovery of the industry this year, the capital chain of enterprises has been guaranteed, and it has the ability to purchase new cotton directly with cash.

In the past, enterprises often used cotton for credit first and then paid to cotton enterprises after sales.

The price of cotton and cotton yarn is still at a stage of rising each other. In contrast, the price of downstream denim and grey cloth will bear more cost pressure.

From enterprise inventory

angle

Look, after this year's storage, the cotton has been satisfied, and the short-term inventory level has increased.

The upstream cotton enterprises are also relatively optimistic about cotton prices in the future, and actively buy seed cotton for processing.

From the perspective of domestic cotton purchase, the acquisition of Xinjiang cotton is basically completed.

Part of the real estate cotton is reluctant to sell, and there are many potential supply in the future.

But seed cotton is easier to store, and if it goes down quickly, the willingness of cotton farmers to sell will also drop.

At present, the price of seed cotton has dropped to nearly 6.2 yuan per catty, and the corresponding lint price is still over 27000 yuan.

The price of imported cotton is also around 28000 yuan, and the new cotton has not yet arrived.

Therefore, under the premise that no major financial crisis broke out again, the possibility that cotton price would fall below 20 thousand would hardly exist.

In the calculation of 400 kg of seed cotton per mu, the price of 7 yuan is not enough to increase farmers' cotton planting area.

Judging from the purchase of new cotton, mixed level phenomenon is serious.

higher

Grade cotton is out of stock.

Future enterprises are mainly worried that after the adjustment of cotton prices, the downstream weaving mills may reduce prices or default.

The important factor restricting cotton price in the future is mainly the impact of export volume after the appreciation of RMB.

In recent years, the rise of textile industry in India and Pakistan has had an impact on China.

But external demand is the main driving force for domestic cotton consumption.

In the context of the appreciation of the renminbi, once the foreign trade orders are cut, the domestic demand for cotton will be greatly affected.

According to the author's view, short term cotton price adjustment will be well below 27000 yuan.

支撐。用棉企業應該積極在27000左右開始做買入套期保值，鎖定生產成本。在棉花期貨價格快速下跌后，短期在底部可能還會繼續調整，但中線回升到3萬元之上應該沒有懸念。對于普通投資者，也可以在期貨企穩后建立中線多單。中期棉價的運行區間可能在25000到34000之間。在國家增大調控力度之后，快速創新高的可能性也不大。