The Short-Term Resistance Is 129 And 132.5 Cents.
New York cotton
Cotton prices continued to slide this week, and the market basically smoothed the 30 cent / pound increase in early January.
When the Chinese government announced that it was prepared to curb inflation, the cotton trade was already on the decline.
China
Curb inflation
The news did not significantly affect cotton futures and most other commodities (continuous commodity index fell by 10% in a few days).
Needless to say,
market
Trading activity continues to fluctuate in a rather manic "limit / limit", and falls into normality rather than exception.
Last week's 10 year contract option expired in December, prompting the volume of futures to be reduced by more than 30000 hands. This is one of the biggest changes in single day volume in recent history.
It will be interesting to see how this phenomenon will affect the next week's Commodity Futures Commission Commission report.
The November 12th cotton price report showed that the 10 year December contract decreased by 4108 to 4746.
10 years March contract to 11 years October contract adds 2938 hand.
The total number of non pricing contracts is still large, especially in the 11 year March contract for 35356 hands, and 11 years for July contracts for 37311 hands.
Technology: the market is at a critical moment.
Regardless of whether or not they hold the key support area of about 123 cents -119 cents, the next step in the market is likely to determine the direction between 20 cents / pound.
The short-term resistance is 129 cents, 132.50 cents, and the key resistance is 138.20 cents.
Cotton picking in the US - 2010/11 is drawing to a close.
According to the US Department of agriculture weekly progress report, the average cotton crop in the southeast, southwest and remote western regions has 15% cotton.
Only the cotton picking in the delta area and southern Dezhou was basically completed. The cotton grading work in these two regions was basically completed. Less than 3% of the cotton output this year has not yet been graded.
This situation is in sharp contrast to 2009. The continuous rainfall in 2009 delayed the picking time for more than a month.
The two offices responsible for the classification of cotton in the southeastern region now have about 60% of the cotton grading work done.
In the southwest, it accounts for nearly 50% of cotton output in the United States. Cotton fields are scattered everywhere in cotton fields, waiting for processing.
The work of ginning will last until at least March next year.
The Department of agriculture at the local cotton classification office has roughly graded 50% of the local cotton.
In the remote western region, the classification work is far behind the cotton picking progress, mainly due to the decrease of the staff of the United States Department of agriculture.
India - this week, heavy rain in Gujarat, central bank and Maharashtra affected cotton pport.
The India Cotton Association (CAI) estimates that India's cotton output will be 35 million 700 thousand bales this year, with an import volume of about 650000 bags and a total consumption of 26 million 600 thousand bales.
Because of the fact that the ginning merchants are ready to make a contract, the international cotton traders are buying the cotton immediately delivered at today's market price to fill the cotton contracts they have already made and registered for export.
This has led to a rise in cotton prices throughout the country.
The India Cotton Association has so far acquired 150000 bales of cotton, selling cotton to non state-run textile mills and state-run textile mills.
The association has not sold about 50000 bags.
Textile and garment industries require no yarn export.
The main problems in the downstream sector are yarn prices and yarn shortages. Cotton prices have risen 50% in the past two months, leading to rising yarn prices and inadequate yarn supply.
China - despite the low innovation of Zhengzhou's cotton market this week, it seems to have kept the support line of 27000 yuan.
So far, the closing price has not yet fallen below this price.
The turnover of Zheng Shang is still very large, the price fluctuates at high level, and the speculation is very strong.
As long as prices do not fall below 25000 levels, the price trend is still positive.
The government has taken measures to further curb speculation and inflation.
Therefore, commodities and stock market feel heavy pressure and seriously affect the cotton futures market.
Seed cotton and cotton prices fell slightly, prompting cotton farmers to accelerate seed cotton delivery.
We haven't heard the report on the weakening of yarn prices, but we heard that yarn sales have slowed down. Some textile mills have bought more raw cotton and actively promoted products in order to improve cash flow, but they feel some pressure.
Textile mills and cotton traders are actively importing foreign cotton, though the cotton market is in a slump.
Especially in last week's US procurement summit, cotton was particularly popular in the United States. This week the US Department of agriculture report shows that more than 200000 bales of cotton are sold.
We expect that next week's report will be similar or even slightly higher.
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