Home >

Risk Analysis Of Raw Material Price Reduction

2010/11/22 15:59:00 39

??? 日本語 Fran?ais English 中文

Investment suggestion

Cotton prices began to fall from last Thursday. This week, a substantial adjustment of 2450 yuan, we do not think that this is an adjustment, and that this is the emergence of cotton inflection point, therefore, because of the cotton price demonstration effect of polyester and spandex prices, and cost driven viscose price in the future there may be adjustments and space.

We need to pay attention to the related stocks brought about by the reduction of raw materials.

Investment

Risk.

The main factor of the recent sharp fluctuations in textile raw materials is liquidity. The price of raw materials is not smooth enough to return to reason. Similar to the unilateral decline in the past 04 years, there is no possibility of repetition.

The raw material inflation rate is too large, the financial attributes are strong, adjustment is difficult to end in the short term.

Industry comment

Polyester: polyester industry chain price has shown roller coaster trend in the past two weeks. First, it rose sharply last week and then plummeted in the second half of the week.

The price of raw materials basically returned to skyrocketing this weekend. PTA dropped from last week's highest 11400 yuan to 9550 yuan this week. The weekly average price of PET staple fell by 800 yuan to 18780 yuan last week. The price of polyester filament varieties is all callback, of which polyester POY average price is 14880 yuan this week, down 1600 yuan compared with last week.

We expect the price of polyester will continue to decline in the short term. Viscose: the cotton lint price dropped 800 yuan to 14000 yuan this week, the price of viscose staple fiber was loose, the price dropped from 100 yuan to 30700 yuan, the price of human cotton yarn also decreased by 650 yuan to 36500 yuan, and viscose filament price inertia increased 300 yuan to 50300 yuan.

Cotton prices in the past two weeks

Plunge

Driving down the price of cotton lint, we expect that the price of viscose staple fiber will also be lowered next week; and viscose filament is affected by last week's industry conference price increase. The price is still rising this week. We expect it will be difficult to carry out the demand of industry meeting when the price of raw materials and viscose staple fiber falls.

Spandex: after spanning 10000 yuan last week, the price of spandex 40D rose 4000 yuan to 69000 yuan again this week, and the price of raw material PTMEG and pure MDI were stable at 26300 yuan and 19800 yuan respectively.

Last week, spandex's final startup skyrocketed, but this week it is still on the rise. However, at present, the state has tightened liquidity policy. Cotton prices drive down the prices of other chemical fiber varieties, and it is difficult to separate the spandex that is supported by the following fields such as demand, raw materials and production.

Cotton: the cotton CC index 328 index for the weekend is priced at 28852 yuan, 2450 yuan lower than last week's highest price, and the average weekly price of cotllok index is 161 cents / pound this week, down 6 cents / pound compared with last week. The cotton 40S yarn index is 43200 yuan at the end of the week, which is 2100 yuan lower than last week.

Cotton already has

Finance

Attribute, and the correlation with the fundamentals is decreasing. The fluctuation of cotton prices in the future will be more dependent on the market liquidity. This weekend, the central bank once again raised the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, and the liquidity tightening policy continued to attack. We believe that the inflection point of cotton prices is now in the future and there will be a larger adjustment space in the future.

Industry analysis

Since last week, cotton prices have driven all kinds of chemical fiber varieties except spandex to fall. The main reason for this decline is the recent macro policy control liquidity, first raise interest rates, and then raise the deposit reserve ratio.

Last Wednesday evening, when the central bank unexpectedly announced the increase in reserve requirements, cotton futures continued to decline, which fully shows that funds played a decisive role in the recent rise in the price of textile raw materials. And this weekend, the central bank announced another 0.5 percentage point increase in the reserve requirement. We should also pay attention to the fact that the traditional peak season is coming to an end, and the demand for raw materials will decline. We expect that the price trend of cotton and chemical fiber raw materials will fall down in the short term.