What Should We Pay Attention To In The New Export Tax Rebate Policy?

　 This unprecedented strength. Exit After the new tax rebate was issued, Export tax rebate The system should be stable enough time and should not be reduced in one or two years.

China's trade surplus has exceeded 100 billion US dollars for two consecutive years. Trade The surplus is likely to reach a new peak of US $250 billion. In view of the serious problems of excess liquidity, asset market bubble and inflationary pressure brought by the huge trade surplus, the double surplus of China's current balance of payments is the biggest drama of China's macroeconomic adjustment. Fiscal and taxation policies have always been effective policy tools. The new export tax rebate policy is not very surprising. At the same time, in view of the long-term high export tax rebate to feed a large number of enterprises lying on the export tax rebate, it also provides a large number of export enterprises with the cost of an orderly price war. In order to improve export efficiency, it is also necessary to adjust the export tax rebate policy.

Nevertheless, the new export tax rebate policy can not solve all problems, and after implementation, we should also guard against possible problems, so as to ensure that we achieve the desired effect.

First of all, China's trade surplus and trade deficit between China and the United States and Europe are not unilateral problems of China, but are caused by the factors of China and the United States and Europe.

In view of this, adjustment of China's macroeconomic imbalances and global imbalances can not rely solely on China's adjustment. Developed countries, especially the United States, need to adjust. According to the principle of benefiting and fairness, the adjustment efforts that the US and Europe need to make should be greater. Since the second half of 2006, China has issued a series of measures aimed at reducing export incentives, increasing imports and foreign investment incentives. So, should the US and Europe take corresponding actions? How will the Chinese government urge the US and Europe to take practical action? Especially how to urge the United States to make a commitment in the second Sino US Strategic Economic Dialogue statement? "The two sides also agreed to take major measures to reduce China's national savings rate and raise the US national savings rate"; "the two sides decided to do the following priority in the next 6 months: the United States will take measures to enhance long-term fiscal responsibility and adopt new measures to encourage private savings." I believe that Chinese nationals generally expect to see this issue.

Secondly, China has a large export scale and a large number of employees. In spite of the great risk of over reliance on the export market, it is a general trend to shift to a more dependent domestic market development mode, but this adjustment takes time. If the adjustment is too large and the corresponding measures to increase export benefits follow up lead to an excessive decline in exports, the side effects such as sharp decline in corporate efficiency and employment opportunities may be too strong, which will cause a big rebound in policy and may even lead to a policy adjustment. Whether in foreign trade policy or foreign investment policy, this lesson has already happened before, and can not be taken lightly. Therefore, on the one hand, we should resolutely implement the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy. On the other hand, we should increase investment in upgrading product mix and improving enterprise organization, easing the possible side effects of the new export tax rebate policy, and promoting the expected goal of improving export efficiency, so as to avoid the recurrence of policy adjustment.

Third, despite the current need to reduce trade surplus, we must always bear in mind that the productive capacity of wealth is always more important than wealth itself. In the main objectives of economic growth, full employment, price stability, external economic balance, and continuous upgrading of domestic industrial structure, restraining trade surplus and increasing foreign exchange reserves (i.e. external economic balance) are short-term or medium-term objectives, and upgrading domestic industrial structure is a long-term goal. We can not sacrifice long-term goals for short-term goals. Considering that the advanced manufacturing industry has a strong scale effect, the export market is of great significance to its development. We must vigorously cut down the export of commodities with low technology, low value-added, high pollution and high energy consumption such as "two high and one capital", but we should encourage independent innovation in the development of advanced manufacturing industries and encourage them to occupy the international market.

Fourth, since 2004, China has adjusted the export tax rebate policy several times, especially since September last year. Since June 1st this year, the provisional tariff rate of some commodities has to be adjusted, and the new export tax rebate policy has been implemented in July 1st. Since last year, the implementation of the new export tax refund system to the new export tax rebate policy lasted six months. Even if the aim is right, too frequent policy adjustments will inevitably lead to unstable expectations of the policy environment and interfere with its normal production and business rhythm. Therefore, after the unprecedented export tax rebate policy is released, the export tax rebate system should be stable enough time, and it should not be reduced in one or two years.

Fifth, the direction of policy adjustment aimed at improving export efficiency and promoting the transformation of foreign trade growth mode has been proposed for several years, and policy adjustments have also taken place several times. In the process of policy adjustment, many enterprises prefer to engage in active political lobbying to maintain certain policies that do not accord with the goals of Scientific Outlook on Development and harmonious society. However, they are unwilling to work hard to upgrade their industrial structure and develop their own research and development. The new export tax rebate policy has warned many enterprises that instead of putting their hopes on the person and force that lobbied and disposed of, it is better to conform to the trend of policy adjustment and place their hopes on their own positive adjustment measures. Judging from the performance of the new export tax rebate policy and the performance of some enterprises and institutions after the new deal on trade in processing, they have not really learned this lesson, so repeating such an admonition is valuable.

Finally, there is another problem that can not be ignored: how should we save fiscal expenditure after a large reduction or cancellation of export tax rebates?

In order to consolidate the international competitiveness of China's industries and to consolidate the foundation for sustained and stable development of China's foreign trade and economy and the whole national economy, it is appropriate to increase import and export tax revenue and expenditure to enhance the "physique" of foreign trade and economic cooperation. Specifically, the following areas can be put into practice: first, we must invest in the development of independent innovation and advanced manufacturing industries, especially strategic industries such as technology equipment, large aircraft and chips. For this reason, we can support the development of advanced manufacturing industry by means of state investment, government procurement and technology education investment, and continue to encourage independent innovation and advanced manufacturing industry to expand exports and encourage them to occupy the international market, including maintaining or even moderately raising the export tax rebate rate for such commodities.

Secondly, it is the cost to transfer the export industry to the less developed areas and to promote the balanced development of the region. The transfer of export industry to the less developed areas of China needs to increase investment in infrastructure and other fields. In addition, the gap in China's regional development has reached an unprecedented level since the "15" period, and the adjustment of trade policies such as export tax rebate adjustment is intended to improve the structure of export commodities, but it may cause greater impact than the eastern part by restricting the dominant export industries (primary industries) in the central and western regions. We need to consider optimizing the existing fiscal and taxation system, raising the resource tax, allowing the region to get a larger share of the proceeds from resource development for environmental protection and recovery, as well as improving the corporate income tax and value-added tax system, and encouraging the Midwest to be more willing to export the resources in the eastern part of the country after processing, rather than directly exporting in the form of primary products, and share the benefits of a reasonable share. However, in the process of adjustment, the resources tax shared by the central government will be reduced. We can make use of the tax increase and expenditure of foreign trade and economic cooperation to make up for the adjustment smoothly.