Gambling: The "Anxiety" Of Cotton Prices

The cotton price collapse, which began in mid November, is still continuing, and the decline is more intense than it was when it rose.

On the 23 day, the cotton price index fell by 1.7% to 27881 yuan / ton.

Since November 12th, the cotton price index has fallen by 8 trading days, with a cumulative drop of more than 10.9%.

The "flower of evil" that has fallen off cotton prices has greatly reduced the wealth of the middlemen who had tried to profit by hoarding cotton.

On the 22 day, the voice of flowers and spirits in Zhanhua, Binzhou, quickly said that his heart was very anxious and tortured.

Cotton prices plunge under the "anxious"

He has a small lint processing plant and still has 30 tons of lint.

His anxiety and anxiety stems from the current "cotton prices".

On Tuesday, the cotton price index fell 474 yuan / ton after closing at 28355 yuan / ton, or nearly 1.7%.

This is already the cotton price index down eighth consecutive trading days since November 11th, the cumulative decline has exceeded 3421 yuan / ton.

This is directly reflected in the cotton purchase price and lint price which are closely related to flowers and flowers. Now, the flower is running a small lint processing plant. The purchase price of cotton determines the cost of the factory, and the price of lint is related to its income.

22, according to data from Zhuo Chuang, the purchase price of cottonseed in Shandong is 5.8 yuan / Jin, which has dropped nearly 20% compared with 7.2 yuan / jin at the highest time this year.

At the same time, "lint price is also very unsatisfactory, the current factory price is only 26000 yuan / ton."

Flowers are often called.

Not long ago, the price of lint rose for a short time until it reached a record high of 31500 yuan / ton.

At that time, "making clothes is better than hoarding cotton", and the benefit brought by the soaring price of lint cotton is obviously higher than that of downstream.

Flowers and diligence are the "adherent" and "practitioner" of this view.

In October 27th, the businessman, who "pursued the biggest profit", decided to stop selling lint for sale.

At that time, the purchase price of cotton in Zhanhua has soared to 6.4 yuan / Jin.

"6.4 yuan / kg of seed cotton purchase price contains considerable risk."

Flower recalled, but at that time, the price of lint rose sharply, there were still a large number of traders to "get together" to buy cotton, and the lint factory was also selling cotton lint while buying cotton seeds.

"Cotton prices will rise in the future."

In October 27th, Hua Qin Xing explained to the newspaper why he hoarding cotton. The rising cotton price in the early stage is the bottom of his view of high market and eating cotton.

This is indeed the case.

The day before the 27 day, according to the data provided by Zhuo Chuang, the purchase price of cotton in main producing areas such as Shandong, Xinjiang, Hebei and Anhui reached 6 yuan / Jin on that day.

The cotton price index for that day was closed at 26205 yuan / ton.

In fact, the cotton price index has started to fall since November 12th when it began to rise in September 2nd, and it has been on the rise for 30 consecutive trading days.

In the past 2 months or so, the cotton price index started at 18012 yuan / ton, ending at 31302 yuan / ton, which has been ten years high since the opening of cotton price. The price of cotton has risen 13290 yuan per ton, or more than 74%.

The major reason for the increase in cotton prices is that cotton production has been cut down due to weather conditions.

In September 28th, the newspaper learned in the interview of "100 cotton producing counties in China" - Zhanhua, Binzhou. Due to the continuous rainy weather in autumn, local cotton production decreased by more than 50%.

In September 28th, Hua Qin Wang, a brother in charge of the lint factory jointly with Hua Qin Xing, said in an interview with the newspaper that because of the continuous rise in cotton prices, its lint factory had already suffered from the shortage of cash flow caused by the fast rising cost, and it could only rely on the local cotton farmers to purchase cotton for maintenance.

In addition, Hua Qin Wang is also preparing to borrow 2 million yuan from the bank to tide over the difficulties.

"There are plenty of people who have lost millions."

At that time, Hua Qin said in an interview with the newspaper that according to the local cotton purchase price of 5.2 yuan / Jin in September 28th and the factory price of four grade lint of 23000 yuan / ton, it could still earn "meager profits".

But the profits of these "better than nothing" also vanished in the collapse of the cotton price, which began in November 12th and continues to the end.

In November 22nd, due to the fact that a total of 30 tons of lint had not been delivered in a timely fashion, the flower industry said with sadness, "this year's business is done in white."

According to flower introduction, with the price of lint down from 31500 yuan / ton to the current 26000 yuan / ton, the value of the 30 tons of lint fell 165 thousand yuan in nearly a week.

And flower Qin Xing further revealed that the local cotton prices collapsed due to the loss of heavy cotton hoarding "everywhere", "lost millions of people."

"Yes.

Zhao also claimed that a series of macro policies recently introduced by the state to curb excessive price growth were the main reasons for the rise in cotton prices from soaring to falling.

On the 17 day of the executive meeting of the State Council, the measures to curb prices include the measures to control cotton prices such as "strengthening Xinjiang's cotton Sinop" and "banning the acquisition of unlicensed and unlicensed cotton processing".

At the same time, the role of liquidity reserve in the 9 consecutive days of 2 consecutive increases in the deposit reserve ratio is also emerging.

However, it is also judged that because of the tight supply and demand situation in the overall cotton market this year, cotton prices will still rebound in the late stage. "The rest of the cotton lint is not sold first." on the 22 day, the flower was sad and sad to say that although he could not estimate the duration and effect of the macro adjustment, "selling now is also losing money. It might as well wait for it." perhaps, in his view, in the abrupt rise of cotton prices and the sharp fall of cotton prices, cotton seems to have become a gamble.