Cotton Prices Plummeted, Weather Is Not Cold &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Year-End Or Current Clothing Jilting Phenomenon.

In the past more than 10 days,

Cotton prices drop more than 20% in more than 10 days.

National Development and Reform Commission released monitoring data show that since November 12th, domestic commodity prices have dropped sharply.

The closing price of November 24th was higher than that of November 10th, or 11, when domestic copper, zinc, rubber, cotton, PTA, plastic, soybean oil, sugar and other commodity futures prices fell by more than 10%.

Cotton fell the largest, or 23.6%.

From the spot market, data released by China Cotton Association show that China's cotton price index (grade 328 cotton) fell to 26902 yuan / ton today, compared with the high point of 31302 yuan / ton in November 11th, the more than 10 day time fell 14%.

At the same time, since mid November, Shandong Wei Qiao group, as a weathervane of the industry, has continuously lowered the purchase price of lint, and dropped 500 yuan / ton on the 24 day. At present, the purchase price of grade 3 lint is 26500 yuan / ton, and the 4 level price is 26100 yuan / ton.

Cotton prices still fall by 10%

"Although the decline in cotton prices has been very large, there is still room to fall."

Jia Fengmei, chairman of Ji'nan textile and garment industry association, said in an interview with the author that cotton prices have more than doubled over the same period last year. Although there is a big gap between supply and demand, it will not rise to such a degree. With the gradual improvement of the national control policy and speculation, the price of cotton will continue to drop and cotton prices will continue to fall.

The author noted that the national development and Reform Commission analyzed the causes of the decline in cotton prices today, also said that there was excessive speculation in the pre market, and the price was divorced from the fundamentals of supply and demand. The State Council issued a circular on stabilizing the overall level of market prices to protect the basic livelihood of the masses. It stressed that it is necessary to crack down on illegal activities such as rigging the market and curb excessive speculation. The market expects the reaction to be quick to withdraw from capital gains.

"However, the space for cotton prices to continue to fall is also limited, and there are still more than 10% falling spaces at most. After all, the gap between supply and demand of cotton is objective."

Zhang Qingwei, chairman of Shandong sailor apparel Co., Ltd. predicts.

According to the mid-term analyst of Shanghai, it was noted that last year, cotton production and demand gap in China was 3 million 600 thousand tons, an increase of 2 million 600 thousand tons over 2008. This year, according to conservative calculation, the gap between production and demand will increase by at least 1 million tons. In the whole year of 2010/2011, the supply and demand of cotton will remain in a tight state.

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Some garment enterprises are locked up.

"Anything is fired up, eventually someone will take over, and cotton is no exception. Finally, it is a garment enterprise that is likely to be stuck."

Zhang Qingwei said that cotton prices were high for some time. Clothing companies bought cotton cloth for the production of winter clothes and increased the price of terminal products, which was over 20%.

In the market, winter clothing is very expensive this year, thousands of yuan or even thousands of dollars. However, from the sales situation, it is not ideal, sales volume has dropped sharply compared with the same period last year, and the product backlog is serious.

In fact, I learned from the interview that there is another important reason for this year's clothing enterprises to produce large quantities of winter clothes and raise their prices. This autumn, the society is widely known that this winter is "extremely cold for thousands of years".

However, the fact is that not only the "extremely cold" weather is not yet in sight, but this winter in Ji'nan is the latest in 50 years, and the meteorological department also said that the "cold year is extremely cold" is purely conjecture and without scientific basis.

"If it is warm winter this year, cotton prices will continue to fall, and the worst part is the downstream clothing production, wholesale and retail enterprises in the whole industry chain."

Zhang Qingwei said, if there is no accident, at the end of December this year, early next year, early January, clothing enterprises must start off the high priced winter clothes one month in advance, so as to lighten the burden and avoid inventory and fight again next year.

In previous years, the sale of winter clothes usually appeared.

"Extremely cold" raises cotton prices

It is understood that the "Millennium extreme cold" derives from a Poland scientist's forecast of the climate of Europe this winter.

According to him, under the influence of "La Nina" phenomenon, the cold and slow activity of the Gulf of Mexico from the North Atlantic will lead to a thousand years of extreme cold in Europe.

And this foreign news, through the interpretation of domestic media, has changed from European topic to Chinese topic in the short term, which has attracted the attention of the domestic public and has also led to soaring cotton prices.

Shandong Meteorological Bureau experts said, in fact, although we can not rule out the possibility of a relatively cold winter this year, anyway, "thousand years extremely cold" is not reliable.

The reality is that recent decades of observations show that the current global climate is in a continuous "warming" stage.

Under the influence of global warming trend, even if there are "cold interludes" in some areas, it is difficult to fundamentally change the annual average temperature and make it difficult to change the trend of climate warming.

Of course, global warming does not mean that the temperature will continue to rise year by year, but will rise in the wave.

Provincial meteorological experts said that this winter is generally warm winter, and the temperature may be slightly higher than the normal year, although there is the possibility of "partial cooling", also belongs to the normal temperature fluctuations, we need not worry too much.