Cotton Prices Fell &Nbsp; What About Clothing Prices?

Since the winter, upstream

In recent months,

In September, cotton futures, electronic matching, throwing cotton and cotton spot prices sharply increased, the purchase price of new cotton seed cotton exceeded 8 yuan / kg, and some even exceeded 10 yuan / kg.

Since then, the soaring cotton prices suddenly changed in mid November.

In from November 11th to 12th, cotton futures prices continued to decline for two consecutive days and plummeted.

In November 25th, the Zhengzhou commodity exchange (CZCE) Cotton Futures (1105 main contract) closed at a price of 25270 yuan / ton, compared with the highest price of 33720 yuan / ton in November 10th, a 25.06% decline; in November 26th, the cotton price index of China (grade 328 cotton) was 26681 tons, compared with the historical highs of 31302 yuan / ton in November 11th, which had fallen by 4621 yuan / ton, or 14.76%.

Next spring: the price rises and locks 5%-10%

Since the beginning of winter, the price of upstream cotton has risen sharply, and the four textile materials have launched a new round of price surge.

Then the clothing market rose.

"Once the cost of increasing the cost of raw materials is difficult to plate, the profit margins of garment enterprises will be swallowed up."

The industry believes that clothing companies have been forced to the limit of profits.

However, a reporter recently interviewed at the fifteenth China (Humen) International Fashion Fair found that the clothing market here had not been attacked by high cotton prices.

As China's popular trend vane and fashion release place, Humen clothing prices have not "changed face", the market sales are still hot.

The successful conclusion of the fair has also made a positive result: the number of visitors and purchases exceeds 800 thousand, and the paction volume is expected to be about 4 billion 630 million yuan.

However, reporters in Humen interviewed also heard such a voice: next year when spring and summer comes on sale, it may be another scene.

It is predicted that the price of spring and summer clothing will float 5%-10% next year, and Humen will no longer be a "paradise on earth".

In fact, with the rising price of raw materials such as cotton, many clothing brands across the country have already adjusted prices during the eleven period, especially the price of winter clothes such as down garments.

Fang Wei, assistant general manager of Humen Wen Chun clothing company, told reporters that the clothes sold in the Humen clothing market are mostly raw materials for the price rise of cotton, so the market price is fairly stable.

The raw materials that the cotton prices are soaring will probably affect the spring clothes next year.

Fang Wei said: "during the cotton price going up period, cotton has a price per day, and sometimes a meal will lose tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of cotton, and the" uncertainty "of cotton price is really out of line.

It is reported that cotton, as the main raw material of cotton spinning enterprises, usually accounts for 60%-70% of the cost.

According to the average profit of 12% of the industry, cotton price rises by 1% every time, and the profit drop of enterprises is 0.53%.

Next year when Humen's spring clothes are listed, how big is the price fluctuation? 5% or 10%? But the reporter heard more about the "cost reduction theory" of Humen clothing enterprises.

Some enterprises say they will try to reduce the cost of clothing production and sale from various aspects such as fabric, design and operation.

Fang Wei told reporters: "we will strive to expand the scale of procurement and innovative marketing channels.

Wen Wen will simplify the design and reduce the use of fabrics by reducing the complexity of the style.

In addition, in order to reduce operating costs, we will also adopt multi-channel sales mode, in addition to physical stores, will also try to try the network, so that the operation cost will be reduced a lot. "

Cotton price futures: the top ten buyers are not spinning enterprises.

Cotton prices fell nearly 15%, cotton futures prices fell more than 25%, in the face of recent dramatic changes in cotton prices, vice chairman of the China Textile Industry Association, Xu Wenying, honorary president of China Cotton Textile Industry Association pointed out that this is the pre market excessive speculation after the correction of the return.

Earlier, soaring cotton prices brought huge market risks.

This rise is not driven by rigid demand, and it will fall back from the fundamentals of supply and demand.

In addition, the impact of national macroeconomic regulation and control measures is also an important factor.

In January 4th this year, China's cotton price index (grade 328 cotton) was 14879 yuan / ton, reaching the highest level of 31302 yuan / ton in November 11th, reaching 110.3%, at the same time, the international cotton price also rose all the way.

The CotlookA index reached a record high of 172.4 cents per pound, and international cotton prices rose more than domestic cotton prices.

Thanks to the sustained recovery of the global economy and the positive support of the domestic macro-economy, the growth rate of production and marketing of China's cotton textile industry is at a high level in the same period in recent years.

In 1-10 months of this year, gross domestic yarn output was 22 million 375 thousand and 300 tons, an increase of 15.50% over the same period last year.

Among them, the cumulative output of cotton yarn was 17 million 70 thousand and 500 tons, an increase of 14.20% over the same period last year.

The whole year yarn production is expected to reach 27 million tons. According to the ratio of 50% cotton, 13 million 500 thousand tons of cotton are needed.

Affected by weather factors, the quality of domestic cotton decreased in the previous year, and the output was less than 7 million tons. The gap between them should be made up of imported cotton.

This year cotton import quota is 3 million 600 thousand tons, due to late quota issuance, as of September, the total import of cotton is only 2 million 150 thousand tons.

There is a gap of 3 million -400 million tons of cotton supply throughout the year.

And from a global perspective, in August, floods in Pakistan, cotton production in large quantities; in addition, the main cotton producing countries in India in April this year, issued restrictions on cotton exports related measures.

"The contradiction between supply and demand of cotton has attracted a lot of hot money, so speculation has pushed cotton prices up."

Xu Wenying analyzed that this year the state has increased the regulation and control of real estate, and many of the real estate funds have turned to the agricultural products market; the adverse weather in domestic cotton producing areas has delayed the listing time of new cotton, and the supply and demand situation of cotton has been tighter and tighter, and cotton has become a popular product of capital pursuit.

"The top ten buyers of cotton futures market are not textile enterprises. This alone explains why cotton prices have skyrocketed.

Hot money poured in, hoarding and malicious speculation.

Xu Wenying also pointed out that in order to ease the shortage of new cotton market due to weather factors, the relevant departments of the state have launched 1 million tons of national cotton reserves through auction.

However, due to the large demand and small supply, the auction did not have the highest price. The dumping did not achieve the purpose of stabilizing cotton prices, but led cotton prices up.

Garment enterprises: quickly think after changing your breath.

The rise in cotton prices has really made the capital operators carnival, and also made the downstream businesses pinch.

In the past, the clothing industry paid little attention to cotton prices.

They believe that when cotton prices rise very small, the price fluctuation can be absorbed through the price pmission, cost control, increasing sales and upstream prices.

But with the increase of cotton prices, the ability of clothing industry to absorb costs through other channels will also decline.

Many garment enterprises did not expect that the soaring cotton prices a few days ago made an inconvenient profit gap for garment industry.

"Compared with the same period last year, the price of domestic fabrics has risen by about 50%, while the price of clothing export orders can only grow by 15%-20%.

The boss of a garment company whose export is mainly exported is miserable.

He said: "before the price of cotton yarn has gone up, we will adjust the proportion of textile raw materials according to the market situation. For example, the price of cotton is too high to earn much profit space. We will increase the proportion of the purchase of chemical fiber and wool to ensure the profit of the company.

However, the impact of cotton prices on several varieties of textile materials is rising now, and the increase is quite large. In the face of this market situation, I do not know where to go for a while.

At present, many textile downstream enterprises only dare to purchase raw materials and organize production according to their needs after receiving orders.

According to the reporters, many textile companies who participated in the 2010 Autumn Fair recently increased their orders by 20%-30%, and some products even increased to 40%.

However,

More than 20% of the increase in foreign prices is generally unacceptable. Some European and American customers have begun to reduce the volume of purchases in China, especially the orders for some low-end goods will flow to Southeast Asia.

Insiders predict that if the situation continues, there will be a large number of foreign trade factories closing down after the Spring Festival next year.

A few days ago, collected from 15 professional markets of China Textile City, and the monitoring data of more than 1200 merchants showed that the 20101129 index of China Keqiao textile index closed at 105.40, which was 0.36% lower than that of the previous period. It shows that the price index of raw materials has dropped significantly and the total price index has declined slightly.

But the price index of cloth, clothing fabrics, home textiles, accessories and accessories is still pushing up.

At present, the sale price of clothes that are closely related to cotton in various shopping malls has increased to varying degrees over last year.

From cotton socks, cotton pajamas to cotton clothes, prices go red all the way.

It is also known that the cotton clothing in the mall this year is generally two to 30% higher than the old ones.

The price bearer is ultimately the consumer. Therefore, the price rise of garment enterprises is unavoidable.

From the clothing brand itself, long-term and continuous market positioning, price positioning, style positioning and so on can not be allowed to change easily.

In the final analysis, brand price increases should be accepted not only by the market, but also by the medium and long-term development plans of the brand.

"But not rising prices may not even be able to tide over the difficulties ahead."

The cost control level of clothing industry needs to be further improved, not to mention the strong digestion ability can not afford to keep raw materials unchecked.

Despite the fact that the brand has increased its price in disguised form, it has been "seen through" by fragile orders in the end.

Fortunately, the country's timely efforts to curb cotton prices, so that the overall price rise of clothing is not too outmoded, which also allows temporarily relaxed clothing enterprises have the opportunity to think about whether innovative channels can become the best way to occupy the future profit point.