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The Introduction Of Us Non Farm Data Has Revived Commodities Again.

2010/12/6 15:54:00 59

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Last Friday's international merchandise market was full of surprises.

US cotton main contract continued trading for third consecutive trading days, New York gold price once again exceeded 1400 U.S. dollars / ounce, London copper prices rebounded sharply, the U.S. crude oil futures close to 90 U. S. dollars a barrel mark, CBOT soybeans return to 1300 cents / bushels...

It is hard to believe that this is a market that has just experienced strong earthquakes two weeks ago, and the evidence shows that commodities seem to have come to sleep from hibernation.

In fact, the US economy in the past week has been filled with too much good news and the high US dollar left.

commodity

There are not many opportunities to turn the tables, but last Friday's US nonfarm data released the goods back to life again.

The US dollar fell sharply against the major economies on the day of the currency exchange rate, while the US dollar index fell below 80 integer points and dived 1.35%.

In the previous 20 working days, the index rose rapidly from less than 76 to about 81.4, or 7%.

Even US Vice President Biden also fanning the flames, saying that the non farm employment report shows that the private sector economy is growing, but "it can not be denied that the report is disappointing". The United States still faces "too much pain" in the economic situation.

Moodie

Mark Zandi, chief economist of the company, said the report on non farm employment released last Friday is just the beginning. The employment market in the United States will continue to deteriorate and the unemployment rate will hit a two digit high in the future.

He pointed out that the non-agricultural employment figures released last Friday were very unexpected, and did not match much of the other economic data released before, but once the market is accustomed to this pattern, and with more labor force increases, the unemployment rate will reach a high level of 10% by the end of 2010 or early 2011.

Insiders said that the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate caused the market to collapse in anticipation of the easing of the scale of the Federal Reserve in the future, and the US dollar trend is expected to turn pessimistic again.

As the strongest financial asset, gold may also go higher in the short term, due to the influx of a large number of hedge funds.

At the same time, most bulk commodities such as metals, crude oil and agricultural products (000061) may temporarily abandon their supply and demand fundamentals, and enter the "rebound" channel due to the fall of the US dollar.