Policy Speculation Pressure Cotton Prices To Rebound

　　 policy Speculation that cotton prices will be pressed will continue to be wait-and-see in the market. Zheng cotton Continue to give priority to interval shocks. When the market data is clear next week, the market will direct the direction of goods in the short term.

because Consumer Waiting for the US Department of agriculture's monthly demand and supply report on Friday, the market slack has increased the market volatility. The 8 day ICE cotton trend is rising and falling. The main contract in March rose 1.58 cents and ended up at $1.3195. Basically, the market is waiting for the monthly report of the US farmers and expects us cotton exports to decrease this week. In addition, the market is waiting for India next Monday's policy meeting to see if it will extend the export deadline. The Australian Bureau of agricultural and economic resources predicts that the Australian cotton output in this year will significantly exceed the highest level in 2000/01, reaching 894 thousand tons, an increase of 130% over the same period last year, far exceeding the latest forecast of the US Department of agriculture's 760 thousand tons. Analysts say the market is waiting for the US monthly report to be adjusted. If the report shows that the supply of cotton is tight, the market will rekindle the rally.

It is understood that yesterday's seed cotton purchase prices continue to rise, some cotton enterprises across the province began to purchase, the purchase price generally rose to 5.4-5.8 yuan / kg, with cotton prices in recent days, cotton farmers now generally say it is difficult to grasp the trend of cotton prices, although want to sell at a price, but do not want to sell a low price, the current psychological contradictions. From the perspective of the textile industry, the demand for purchasing high-grade cotton has increased, and the market inquiry has been more active than before, but the actual volume is still not optimistic. Analysts believe that the futures market is currently in the range of fluctuations in the direction of waiting for policy direction, the spot market is still slow trend, the overall look more stable.

From the policy perspective, the central bank again suspended the three year central bank's vote yesterday as a deep hedge tool that could replace the reserve ratio. In the three years, the central bank temporarily left or announced that the central bank would use more powerful funds to return the tools. In addition, the National Bureau of statistics once again released the release date of economic data to the rest day of the weekend. The superposition of the two messages triggered speculation that the central bank might launch more emphasis on control policy this weekend. Market participants said that the relevant authoritative channels came out. In November, the CPI growth rate may be lower than expected. In December, the CPI growth rate will be more likely to fall. The annual CPI data is likely to be slightly higher than the target of 3%. If CPI continues to be high, the interest rate window will be near.

　　 According to China Weather Network 7 reported that in the next three days, affected by cold air, the northern region cooled 4-8 degrees and accompanied by 4-6 winds. Among them, parts of Eastern Inner Mongolia, northern North China and Northeast China decreased by 10-14 degrees centigrade, 16-20 degrees locally, and some parts of the southern Xinjiang Basin and Western Inner Mongolia had sand dust or dust storms. There were sandstorms in Western Inner Mongolia. Xinjiang, Aletai, Inner Mongolia, Middle East and Northeast China had small to moderate snow (rain) or sleet.

To sum up, the market continues to await the latest monthly report of the US Department of agriculture, coupled with the sensitive data window period sensitive period this weekend. Investors are wait-and-see. Analyst Zhai Naigang believes that before the data and policies are not completely clear, cotton prices will continue to be mainly adjusted again and again. If the policy is loose and market data show that cotton is still in short supply, the market will rekindle the rally.