The Euro Market Is Shaky &Nbsp; &Nbsp; The US Dollar Has A High Probability Of Going Up.

This week, the currency market showed a broad pattern of shock: the future of Ireland's budget is uncertain.

The future trend of the euro depends on the evolution of the European debt crisis.

Ireland has passed its first budget proposal, and EU leaders welcomed the Irish parliament's approval of the Irish government's tight budget deficit plan for 2011.

Juncker, chairman of the euro group, wrote a detailed explanation of the issue of eurozone unified issuance.

European joint sovereign bonds will be issued by a European debt agency (EDA), while EDA will become the successor of the current European financial stability arrangement.

The Council of Europe can take action as early as this month.

But EU leaders have escalated the debate over the issue of joint bonds to deal with the European debt crisis.

Germany said it was against the idea at the legal and economic levels.

German Chancellor Merkel said the idea of issuing Euro bonds provided a wrong incentive for Member States.

Juncker, the chairman of the euro group, criticized German leaders for refusing to accept the proposal to issue "E- bonds" without proper inspection.

Obviously, the "Long March" of the European debt crisis took the first step, followed by several budget proposals.

At the same time, the latest data released by Europe show that even the recovery efforts of the first tier countries in Europe are not satisfactory. Germany's CPI in November and the number of non-agricultural employment in France are not very ideal, which further shows that the trend of the euro's later period is not optimistic.

The analysis of foreign exchange traders of Bank of China believes that the future of the European debt crisis is uncertain and there is no bright spot in the economic fundamentals. The euro will decline to 1.26 near the dollar by inertia.

The US Labor Department announced in December 9th that the number of non farm employment in the United States increased by 39 thousand in November, far less than the 155 thousand expected in the market, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a new high since April.

After the release of the employment figures, the dollar was sold at a time.

But after the news that the United States would extend the tax cut policy, the US dollar reversed its downward trend.

Recently, US President Obama reached a compromise with the Republican Party and extended the Bush administration's all tax cuts for another two years.

The comprehensive extension of tax reduction policy has provided impetus to the US dollar in two aspects: first, to boost the yield of US bonds, and two to alleviate the pressure of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing monetary policy.

The US dollar shot up for the first time in nearly three months, the biggest increase in three consecutive trading days.

Traders from the technical chart, the dollar index is currently on the rise, but is currently blocked by the upward trend line of suppression, below its support in the vicinity of 79.24, the US dollar index is expected to still have upward space, the target position is 81.50.

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Prudence in monetary policy

This week, many countries entered the interest rate cycle.

Uncertainties remain in the global economic recovery and monetary policy is prudent in all countries.

After two days of meetings, the Bank of England said that the monetary policy committee decided to maintain the central bank's benchmark lending rate unchanged, still maintained 0.5% of its historical status, and decided to maintain a 200 billion pound asset purchase program unchanged.

In the foreign exchange market, the pound continued to consolidate in 1.5800 key areas against the US dollar.

Australia also suspended interest rate hikes.

The RBA said after the conference on interest rates that the current monetary policy is appropriate and expects that there will be no major change in the next few quarters, but that it will increase in the medium term.

After the meeting, the Aussie dollar strengthened against the US dollar and then gradually stabilized.

Analysts said the Australian dollar needs to focus on the European debt problem and the future direction of China's monetary policy.

Brazil's central bank is also facing a decision to raise interest rates or not.

Last week, the Central Bank of Brazil sharply raised the deposit reserve ratio, which greatly reduced the possibility of raising interest rates this week by the Central Bank of Brazil.

Because Brazil's president elect Rousseff has promised to reduce the cost of loans in his tenure, analysts of Ampang consultancy judge that the Brazil central bank may choose to lower interest rates early next year instead of raising interest rates.

In addition, the Asian Development Bank released a report that Asia's rapid economic growth has brought inflation threat.

Market participants generally expect the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates in March next year to ease inflationary pressures.