CPI Docking Inflation &Nbsp; Price Regulation Will Be "Protracted War".

　 CPI "crack five" concerns all parties. At the press conference of the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, the reporters saw that all the problems of the media were related to CPI.

How do we view the rise of CPI? Can we achieve the goal of price control around 3% this year? Is it possible to see more obvious next year? Inflation ?

Regulation has risen, why is CPI still rising?

Before the economic data was released in November, the central government has issued 16 measures to stabilize the consumer price level. But why does CPI not go down?

Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the price department of the national development and Reform Commission, said that in November, the consumption of meat, eggs and vegetables increased, and seasonal consumption such as heating increased. The price of food increased rapidly in the first half of the month. The national stable price measures were launched in the middle of the month, and the implementation needed a process, which is still reflected in the CPI data.

From 1 to November, the national CPI rose by 3.2% compared with the previous year, while the target set at the beginning of the year was around 3%. Does this mean that the target of price regulation has been broken through?

"The original target is around 3%, and it is a prospective and guiding goal. 3% a little bit more should still be within the scope of this regulation target. " Sheng Yun, spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said. He said that there were many favorable conditions for stabilizing prices in December. The most favorable condition is that the effect of the 16 measures of the State Council will continue to emerge. In addition, the tail factor was not available in December, which will also play a positive role in lowering the overall price level.

Inflation pressure persists within one to two years.

The December 3rd meeting of the Central Political Bureau announced the return of monetary policy to "prudent", and the sixth time the central bank raised the deposit reserve rate the day before yesterday. Curb inflation Attach importance to.

Since 2009, the total volume of credit in China has soared. Zhang Anyuan, director of the financial and Financial Research Office of the Economic Development Research Institute of the NDRC, said: "the long term monetary excess is the main reason for the rapid rise in prices and far beyond the social expectations."

The more critical factor in this round of price rises is that all kinds of social costs, especially the increase of basic labor costs, are particularly evident in the labor-intensive agriculture field. Wang Tongsan, director of the Institute of quantitative economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that since 1998, there have been three major price increases in China. Every time it is related to agriculture, the rise in the price of agricultural products to the increase in food prices and the increase in the prices of industrial products almost become a rule. {page_break}
 

The pressure of price rise will also exist in the next one to two years. Zhang Xiaojing, director of the macroeconomic Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said. The market-oriented reform of factors, such as resources, land and wages, is the trend of the times. However, due to the oversupply of domestic industrial products and the continuous harvest of grain, coupled with the adjustment of monetary policy, there will be no hyperinflation in the future.

　　 CPI And inflation can not be directly linked to

CPI is the index to judge the level of consumer price. Money supply is greater than actual demand. But now, most people directly associate CPI with inflation instead of rising prices.

"Rising prices are not equal to inflation." Wang Guogang, director of the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that western countries usually define inflation as a CPI growth rate of more than 3% in six consecutive months. On the surface, China's CPI has been more than 3% for more than a month this year, but the connotation of CPI between China and the west is different. The West does not contain agricultural products and resource products, and the right to food in China's CPI is 1/3. Excluding food, the other 7 categories of price composite index have not exceeded 2% since 1998. Therefore, the inflation we now consider is actually a rising price, and mainly a rise in food prices.

China's CPI peak reached 8.3% a few years ago, far higher than the current 5.1%. Why did the social response at that time not so sensitive? Zhang Hanping thought that this aspect showed that the public's concern for national economic policies and self-interest has increased, and on the other hand, it may be related to the repeated "pen writing" of CPI to the public. In fact, the monthly economic data of the country involve many aspects. Many data have the same value as CPI, which reflects the macroeconomic trend, such as industry and product production, utilization of foreign capital, retail of consumer goods and so on.

Promoting structural adjustment with investment

From 1 to November, investment in fixed assets in cities and towns maintained a steady and rapid growth, reaching 210698 billion yuan, an increase of 24.9% over the same period last year, a decrease of 32.1% over the same period last year.

In fact, this year, the growth rate of investment in China is basically a gradual decline. From 1 to November, the investment in the primary industry, the second industry and the third industry increased by 16.6%, 22.7% and 26.9%, respectively.

Zhang Hanya, director of the investment and Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, believes that the decline in investment growth this year is related to last year's base and related to monetary tightening since the credit boom in January. From the industry perspective, the third industry investment as last year is obviously higher than that of the second industry. It will continue to play an important role in improving China's future industrial structure. The number of new projects is small, but the average investment scale of individual projects is large. This is a policy embodiment of China's top projects, high pollution and high energy consumption projects.

It is worth noting that in November, the sales rate of China's industrial enterprises was 97.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year. At the moment when the world economy starts to go out of the trough and China's export trade is resumed, the slight decline in production and marketing rates has again struck the alarm to speed up the pace of restructuring.