Credulous "Extremely Cold" Says &Nbsp; "Down Feather" Is A Double-Edged Sword In The Hands Of Businessmen.

2800 yuan per piece.

Far away in the northeast of Shenyang, Ms. Liu complained that she had had a "thousand years of extreme cold" in foreign countries, and Shenyang's down jacket.

Miss Li, a white-collar worker in Beijing, bought a rose down jacket on the Internet. Although the price is lower than that of the shopping mall, she can not wear it on the body at all.

She complained, "this winter coat is thin without feather, which is like a down jacket?"

Who is the "thousand years of extreme cold"?

Before the winter, the news of "a thousand years of extreme cold" spread from Europe to China. According to European scientists, "Europe is now in a thousand years of cold winter, which is difficult to escape from the Asian region".

Li Ying, vice general manager of duck duck company, who is familiar with China's down market, said that there are some down producers and distributors in China who are really waiting for the business opportunities that will bring to the down market because of the "thousand years of extreme cold". As a result of the two "warm winter" backlog of down products in 2006 and 2007, they were sold out in 2008 and 2009 in two "cold winter days".

Therefore, when the phrase "thousand years of extreme cold" came, we felt that the domestic producers and distributors of the "cold winter" sweetness in the first two years were eager to move.

However, Kovar Voss Ki of Poland Institute of Meteorology and water management soon came to the stage to refute the rumor, saying, "a thousand years of extreme cold" is a media out of context, but China's domestic down jacket industry is playing an increasingly important role in the "Millennium cold" economic card.

Because the main performance of the down jacket producers and distributors is concentrated in the two seasons of autumn and winter, there is a psychology in the down industry that sells the charcoal Weng "the heart is worried about the charcoal and the cold is willing to be cold".

Li Ying said: "a lot of feather and down enterprises are making full use of their strength to produce down garments, and casual wear and even leather goods enterprises that didn't make down garments before yesterday are all in the mood.

"Down from eighty thousand or ninety thousand yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 350 thousand yuan per ton, nearly 4 times higher."

Yao Xiaoman, executive vice president and Secretary General of the China feather and down industry association, said with anxiety: "is it normal?"

Beijing Xidan shopping center responsible for the sale of down garments, the left official said that the down jacket prices generally rise, thousands of yuan down one down jacket to a large number of low-end consumers shut out.

Another dealer revealed that the wholesale price of a down jacket last winter was four hundred or five hundred yuan, and this winter producer increased to eight hundred or nine hundred yuan.

In October of this year, the sales volume increased by 3.5 times compared with the same period last year under the influence of the "extremely cold year" theory. By November, the "thousand years of extreme cold" did not arrive, the temperature was still slightly higher than in previous years, and the sales of down garments decreased suddenly by 20%~30%.

The dealer concluded that if the snowfall and cooling weather did not occur in the next half a month, the "high price and small sales" situation in the down garment market must be broken.

"No need to wait until the Spring Festival, Christmas and new year's day, dealers will be unable to support the sale and sale."

He said.

"Sales can no longer drop."

Hebei province Zhangjiakou city tomorrow down clothing monopoly company official said.

Since November this year, the loss of sales has been enough to offset the year-on-year profit growth in the second half of this year.

And the rental of his down selling clothing store rose from 160 thousand yuan a year in 2006 to 450 thousand yuan a year.

Wang Aiguo, who specializes in down coats in Shenyang, Liaoning, only entered the industry in 2002.

In 2004 and 2005, he said, down coats sold well, and sales and profits in 2007 and 2008 were tied.

Around October 2008, when domestic raw materials rose to 100 thousand yuan / ton, the industry said, "never seen this price."

As for the price of down and down clothing this year both rose to a high level, Wang Aiguo said that he was fooled by the "thousand years of extreme cold" and strictly deviated from the fluctuation range of down value.

Not long ago, at the four three annual general meeting of the China down industry association, held in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou, Yao Xiaoman hoped that the producers and distributors would seriously investigate who was behind the scenes in pushing up the price of the down and its products.

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Yao Xiaoman said that industry associations are very keen to stabilize market prices.

At first, they suspected that the market's hot money was in the down garment market, but later they investigated and analyzed the market speculation funds.

Feather down is a kind of natural thermal insulation material.

It is not like the sheep's wool shaving will grow again, but the duck and goose farming downstream agricultural and sideline products, that is to say, domestic duck and goose are mainly for eating meat, only when the consumption of duck meat and goose in the market increases, the down production will follow the "rising tide".

At the China International feather and down fair, many down garment manufacturers and dealers considered that the rising price of upstream feather materials only led to doubling the price of down garments.

Chen Wensheng from Guangdong Wuchuan "down town" and Liu Jianhong, a large breed in Baiyangdian, Hebei, "shouted for the duckling": "duck is not the black hand that pushes the market price at all."

In order to achieve rational and sustainable development, we must set up a market warning system.

After several years of tracking and analyzing the market, Chen Wensheng, general manager of Zhanjiang Bauhinia feather and down products Co., Ltd. found that the price of feather raw materials was inversely proportional to the number of livestock raised by ducks and geese.

The higher the number of livestock and the number of flock, the lower the price of the down, but the inverse relationship with the price of pork. The high price of the pork will force consumers to eat duck and goose, and directly pull the duck and goose breeding industry, which is directly proportional to the feed price trend. The more expensive the feed is, the higher the price of the feather and its products.

"Ignoring other factors, it is biased to target the duckling and its down."

Chen Wensheng said.

Liu Jianhong, who is engaged in aquaculture and doing down and down trade, has more words: the duckling used to have only 30 Fen, and it has risen to 9 yuan a while ago.

Some farms last month or 300 thousand breeding scale, now down to 100 thousand, so as to reduce the scale of farming to offset the cost pressure of feed prices.

In Liu Jianhong's view, the cost of raising ducks has also risen a lot.

A duckling can be slaughtered and hairy for 25 days to 38 days.

8 ducks produce 500 grams of raw wool, including 50 grams of down.

A farmer has five or six ducks per month, two thousand or three thousand at a time.

It turned out that a duck seedling costs only 5 yuan, that is, the cost of feed can be slaughtered. Now the price rise of agricultural products will require 10 yuan to raise the cost of labor, and the labor cost will increase. The price of duck meat can not be doubled by the control of pork prices. Farmers will calculate the economic accounts, and only the down price of by-products can fill the hole of farming expenditure.

A down buying contractor controls 10 aquaculture brokers, and a breeding broker disperses 10 scattered households.

In the past, every breeding broker had to earn 30 yuan a day to buy feathers and feather down.

Now less than 50 yuan / day's profit, they prefer to sit at home and do not work, because the cost of living and travel has increased.

Liu Jianhong said, "the duckling is not guilty."

The rise in feather prices is only a superficial phenomenon in the market. The real reason is the increase in feed costs caused by the increase in agricultural products and a series of market ripple effects of rising labor costs.

The deputy general manager of duck duck joint stock company, analyzing the cost of the down garment production, said that the price of the down material is on the one hand. On the other hand, the price of the down garment accessories, zippers, buttons and so on is affected by the upstream oil and steel prices, and their increase is also about 30%.

In addition, the wages of workers have doubled.

In the past, the cost of producing a down garment was 30 yuan, and now it has risen to 80 yuan ~90 yuan / piece, and the down process garment with a complicated working procedure has reached 100 yuan / piece.

A skilled worker has a monthly salary of around 3000 yuan.

"In the case of CPI's overall rise, how can the down coat price increase?" Wang Aiguo said.

Down the body into a "double-edged sword" in the hands of businessmen

"The price of the down garment is soaring, and the weather is only an inducement. Ultimately, there is a fundamental change in the relationship between supply and demand."

The conclusion was drawn from the four three annual general meeting of China down industry association.

According to statistics, there are three thousand or four thousand enterprises in China producing down garments, with 240 million annual down garments and 5 million pieces of export to the international market, with 190 million domestic sales.

There are only more than 400 enterprises with an annual output value of more than 5 million yuan.

Wang Rudan, director of the China feather and down industry association, is worried that "the price of radish and its products will be sold".

It is easy for the big brands to reach a market consensus. Small businesses and miscellaneous brands take a low price competition strategy to seize the market and lead to a disorderly development of the industry.

One trend is to process natural feathers with chemical processes, create some so-called functional concepts and sell high prices.

Another trend is to reduce the cost, in which some non feather down materials are included in the down jacket, such as acrylic cotton, and chicken feather and long hair pieces are broken down instead of down.

Another risky move is self proclaimed "down and down" down jacket.

"Down is a double-edged sword."

Yao Xiaoman said that the above trends and actions are prohibited by industry organizations.

Speculation, "live plucking" as a selling point of the business has made international taboo.

Because EU consumers are boycotting China's down products on the grounds that "live plucking" products harm the interests of animals.

In fact, there are no "live plucking" products in China, but individual businesses are making some gimmicks for marketing, but this is often easy to handle.

The price cycle of feather down materials is about a month.

Affected by the recent high price of raw materials, some local governments have used policy leverage to help farmers expand the scale of raising ducks.

Guigang City of Guangxi is a typical representative.

The city has a history of over 40 years, and is truly a "down town".

An official in Hangzhou who inviting investment in the city revealed that the local government is very keen to support the development of the down industry.

The price of down and down clothing will rise steadily or decrease slightly. There are two different voices in the industry.

Yao Xiaoman told the down producers and operators whether they were "cold winter" or "warm winter". They must not use the gamble of gambling psychology to decide production and operation. They must be steady and steady.

Take the feather bedding as an example, the Japanese market has a 103% ownership rate, less than 1% of China's domestic market, and 60% of its winter clothes are down garments, not too high prices, but not enough for the down wear, but not enough innovation, and the added value is not high.

The annual output of the country is about 300 thousand tons.

In order to avoid damage to domestic producers, distributors and consumers, the China feather and down industry association decided to issue a weather forecast for 300 major cities in the country every year from October to January next year, so as to guide the production and consumption of down garments.