PTA Spot Market Price Is Expected To Oscillate Upward

At the end of the week, the problem of raising interest rates in the market was finally settled. In the short term, the domestic economic environment was stable, and the equilibrium of PTA fundamentals was difficult to bring about a large scale market. Under the condition of constant inflation, the author thought that the late PTA would maintain a slow upward trend of oscillation.

Upstream products continue to rise, which has limited impact on PTA in the short term.

Recently, crude oil, which has been quiet for nearly two years, has finally shown a good performance. Prices rose during the peak season of oil demand in winter. Last week, it broke through the mark of 90 US dollars / barrel.

And at the same time,

From the perspective of supply chain equilibrium of industrial chain, because PTA maintains a high rate of opening, if the supply of PX continues to be insufficient, its price will continue to rise rapidly, which will affect the seller mentality of PTA market.

The author believes that such a price pmission may still take more than a week.

According to the plan, the installation of Zhenhai Refining and chemical plant will resume production and pay attention to whether the PX price can continue.

Future expectations are weak, PTA

On the supply and demand situation of PTA itself, supply and demand are relatively balanced.

Due to the fact that there is a habit of buying or selling in the spot market, PTA production and sales have been greatly affected by the slump.

According to CCF data, the stock of polyester yarn has increased substantially in the past three weeks, and the stock index of polyester POY has reached 13 days, while the stock index of a month ago is only 4 days.

According to past data, in January and February, due to the traditional festivals such as new year's day and Spring Festival, the staff of textile enterprises will be greatly lost, resulting in a sharp reduction in the start up of the terminal textile mills, and even a nearly complete production shutdown.

Therefore, in this context, even if the current stock will not cause obvious pressure, but with the gradual arrival of the off-season production of the terminal, the market will become a general prudent and bearish anticipation, so it will bring a lot of downward pressure to the polyester filament market.

The PTA market is also facing a similar situation.

At present, PTA traders have little stock in hand, and the social inventory of actual PTA is mainly concentrated in the hands of downstream polyester manufacturers.

As the main demand side of the spot market, polyester manufacturers have deliberately reduced the price of delivery.

From the perspective of forming reasons, due to the abundant stock of raw materials and the supply of contract goods at the polyester plant, there is little demand for PTA in the spot market. Moreover, considering the reduction of the settlement price of the contract goods, it is also a means to lower the market paction level in the spot market.

However, due to the PTA stock in the hands of traders is not large, there is no demand for a large number of goods, therefore, when there is no sharp drop in domestic goods, traders also have a low price.

In the game of these two mindsets, the PTA spot market is in a state of dilemma.

PTA trend is greatly influenced by cotton {page_break}

The market of PTA market after October can be attributed to the conductive market of cotton. The initial acceleration is due to the rising of cotton prices to polyester staple and polyester filament to the PTA market.

I believe that in the current PTA basic supply and demand balance, cotton trend will guide the formation of PTA.

Obviously, the supply of cotton is insufficient for a long time. But as a leading commodity in early inflation, cotton prices are subject to strict control by the state. Therefore, even if the US cotton rose sharply, the domestic cotton futures performance is still weak. This will also affect the PTA trend, that is, even if other chemical products rebounded sharply, the trend of PTA is still not good.

Therefore, I believe that as long as the cotton trend remains oscillatory, PTA will not rise significantly.

Macro policy is uncertain.

At the end of last week, the central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point increase in the RMB deposit reserve ratio for financial institutions. At this point, the deposit reserve ratio of domestic large financial institutions has once again set a record high.

On the 11 day, statistics released that the domestic CPI in November was 5.1%, which far exceeded the expectations of market analysts.

In fact, after raising the reserve ratio and the announcement of CPI, the uncertainty in the market will be greatly reduced in the short term. At the least, after raising the reserve, there will be no immediate increase in interest rates, which is a hidden good for the market.

Of course, in the time of macroeconomic stability in China, the rise of domestic commodities depends on the fundamentals of the commodity.

The author believes that those with better fundamentals and obvious imbalance between supply and demand may have a good rise, but it is unlikely that all the commodities will rise in the three quarter.

Observing the domestic futures market, we can find that the total holdings of many commodities have dropped to half of the highest positions in November, and turnover has also shrunk.

Of course, this has a certain relationship with the recent state's rectification of the futures market, and to a certain extent, shows that funds flow out of the futures market.

Against this background, the futures price will guide the spot price to be difficult to reproduce in the short term, and the return to fundamentals will be a mainstream trend.

Returning to the PTA level, we have already analyzed the current supply and demand side of PTA, the lack of purchasing enthusiasm in the spot market, and the fact that PTA itself does not drive the market. However, the trend of cotton that can stimulate the price of PTA is difficult to break through because of the state regulation and control, which has made PTA hype enthusiasm to some extent.

On the whole, because the fundamentals are not compatible with PTA, it is difficult to produce a big rise in prices. Short term domestic economic policy stability and inflation will probably push PTA up slowly in the second half of December.