Xie Zuoshi: China'S High Export Is Subsidizing Its Own People.

Some people deny China's high export.

Is China's high export subsidized foreigners? Look at the reasons for this high export.

When a man is strong, he has to save some money for his old age.

In a society with a stable population structure, the savings of young and middle-aged people, the consumption of old people, young people, savings and consumption have always been coordinated.

Such a society does not need to rely on the international community to achieve the balance of aggregate supply and total demand. It can pursue international balance of payments and pursue trade balance.

But the demographic structure of Chinese society is not normal and stable.

After the founding of new China, the population experienced an explosive growth.

The most direct consequence is a significant increase in the proportion of working age population in a period of time.

The increase in the proportion of working age population means that the ratio of child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio is decreasing.

In addition, with the implementation of the family planning policy after a surge in population, the child dependency ratio in Chinese society is far below the normal level.

In a period of time, Chinese society is bound to show a significant young and middle-aged characteristics, and it is inevitable that savings will outweigh investment in the whole.

As a country as a whole, saving is greater than investment.

During this period, the Chinese economy can not rely on itself to maintain balanced growth under full employment.

Over the past thirty years, China's economy has been in such a period.

At present, China's economy is still in such a period.

Today, the greater the demographic dividend we enjoy, the more serious the problem of aging will be in the future.

At that time, our consumption rate will rise naturally, and the savings rate will naturally decrease. The savings of the economy will be less than that of investment, and the trade balance will certainly be in deficit.

Do not deny our

The characteristics of manpower can not be stored, which determines that manpower can be used as much as possible.

Without today's trade surplus, we can only drink the west wind when we are aging.

Therefore, the United States limits the trade surplus to the claim of GDP4%, which is not a conspiracy, but a naked scheme.

To simply balance the balance of payments and balance the trade balance, if it is not for ulterior motives, it is the dogma of dogmatism.

In particular, we should oppose the use of exchange rate to balance China's balance of payments and trade balance.

Of course, a person can not always be indebted, and he will not lend money to others forever, but the balance of budget can not be limited to specific years, but can be considered throughout his life.

The balance of balance of payments in a country should also be viewed in a broader view.

Textbooks emphasize balance of payments, but textbooks are not written in China for explosive growth and then forced to implement the family planning policy.

How can the balance of the starting point be balanced? How can such a balance be unbalanced?

And since the trade surplus is crucial to China's long-term economy, exchange rate stability is also crucial for China.