Bumpy Road On PTA

In recent years, when the central bank raised the reserve rate, instead of raising interest rates and easing the pressure of policy pressure, the international crude oil rose to around 90 US dollars / barrel, PX rose to more than 1360 US dollars, and the PTA spot market price also increased to 9500 yuan / ton.

But the traditional textile season has already passed, and the downstream market lacks confidence.

1. The consolidation pattern of the PTA interval has been fixed.

The spot market has been showing a downward trend after the PTA skyrocketing. However, the price of the PTA spot market has started to slow up. As of 15 days, the mainstream price in the PTA internal market has risen to 9500 yuan / ton, and the market price of the goods and goods in the market has been discussed at 1180 to 1185 dollars / ton, and the market price of the Korean product market is 1150 dollars / ton.

The rise in spot prices of PTA is due to the sharp rise in the price of pre spot goods, which has greatly consumed the stock of PTA accumulated in the hands of traders, thus reducing inventories in the hands of PTA producers, and a large number of stocks are mainly concentrated in the hands of downstream polyester manufacturers.

However, judging from the recent increase and decrease of polyester production in China, it shows that PTA stock is in the circulation link in the form of inventory, and has not been converted to polyester products. Therefore, the polyester plant has sufficient stock of raw materials at present, and the supply of contracted goods makes the demand of PTA for the polyester plant is not large.

In addition, because the stock of traders is not large, the demand for large quantities of goods is not large, so the possibility of PTA falling sharply is also low. However, traders themselves also have a low price mentality. Under such double factors, the situation that PTA is difficult to rise and fall is also determined.

Two, crude oil continued high concussion

The recent price of crude oil has been stable at the high level of 88 US dollars / barrel. However, since the Central Bank of China announced on the 10 day that the deposit reserve ratio of the deposit financial institutions should be increased by 0.5% to 18.5%, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 5.1% in November compared with the same period last year. This makes the market pressure gradually release, and the purchase of crude oil market is supported, so the crude oil price remains strong.

However, due to the instability of the eurozone economy and the short-term oscillation of the US dollar index caused by China's interest rate hike, the price of crude oil will be limited to some extent. Therefore, crude oil will be blocked in the vicinity of US $90 / barrel.

According to the data released by the US energy department, as of the week of December 4th, the US crude oil business inventories decreased by 3 million 820 thousand barrels to 355 million 900 thousand barrels, and gasoline inventories increased 3 million 810 thousand barrels to 213 million 900 thousand barrels, including diesel and heating oil distillate stocks increased by 2 million 150 thousand barrels to 160 million 200 thousand barrels. The operating rate of the US refinery increased 4.9 percentage points to 87.50%. However, the main reason for the decline in crude oil inventories was due to the increase in operating rate caused by the US refinery's avoidance of year-end stock tax.

In addition, from China's customs import and export data, China's crude oil in November

Three, PX has risen sharply.

The price of PX dropped to the lowest level of 1266 US dollars / ton at the beginning of this month. However, in recent days, the price of PX market has soared. As of December 14th, the closing price of Asian PX market increased by US $105 / ton from the beginning of the month to 1371 us dollars / ton of FOB Korea, CFR Taiwan 1386 US dollars / ton, and the closing price of European PX market increased by 102 US dollars / ton to FOB Rotterdam 1288 US dollars / ton.

What is the main reason for the PX's rise and fall? At present, the market of raw materials PX, MX and naphtha is all strong. The naphtha in Asia has gone up sharply, and the overall focus is close to 850 US dollars / ton. However, at present, the consumption season of refined oil is low, and the operation rate of American refineries is about 85%. This data is lower than that of the previous period, and the lower operating rate will inevitably affect its supply, which also promotes the strengthening of naphtha.

The supply of PX was determined by the price difference between ethylene and naphtha. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha was maintained at the low level of 126 US dollars / ton in July this year. Then the price difference began to rise and the price difference began to pick up. Meanwhile, the price of PX began to stabilize and recover again thereafter. Therefore, the price of both of them dropped again, which is the main reason for the price recovery after the supply decline.

Although the price of PX market has rebounded sharply, the production profit of PTA is still at a higher level. The rise of PX price has little impact on PTA, and the support for PTA is relatively weak on cost. Therefore, PTA will not have a sharp rise.

Four, the demand for off-season has brought downward pressure on polyester market.

Faced with the advent of new year's day and Spring Festival, textile workers gradually began to go home to visit relatives, and a large number of textile workers had been lost. Eventually, the operating rate of the terminal textile mill was greatly reduced, and the demand for polyester filament gradually decreased.

Although the current stock of polyester does not cause obvious inventory pressure, but with the advent of the festival, the off-season of terminal production is gradually approaching, which makes the market generally empty, so it will bring some downward pressure to the polyester filament market.

As of December 15th, the market of semi gloss chips in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was obviously in a wait-and-see market. The main market quotation was 11300-11350 yuan / ton (Cheng Dui), 11250-11300 yuan / ton (cash Cheng Dui), the short and short market was in the weak market, the market quotation atmosphere was weak, the mainstream quotation was 12100-12500 yuan / ton, the small single paction was the mainstream, and the polyester yarn market was basically dominated by cross market, and the market was watching fresh and strong. Shengze polyester POY75/72 reported 14900 yuan / ton, FDY68/24 and 75/72 respectively reported 17200, 17100 yuan / ton, Taicang polyester POY150/144, 75/72 reported 13650, 15050 yuan / ton, Zhangjiagang Zhangjiagang luminous FDY40/24 reported 18400 yuan / ton. 1.4D

The market trend of polyester products continues to continue to decline, but the decline is narrowing, the center of gravity tends to be stable, and the demand for PTA is also in a weak state. Therefore, it will restrict PTA to go up sharply.