Analysis Of The Reasons For The Rise In Cotton Prices In 2010

In 2009, the gloom of the international financial crisis has not dissipated.

In recent days, cotton prices have been rising after finishing for a period of time. In some areas, the three grade cotton pick-up price has also been reported to 16 thousand and 200 yuan / ton, and generally 16 thousand and 400 yuan / ton to the factory. Affected by this, cotton related lint, cotton pulp and chemical fiber are all rising.

Analysts believe that cotton prices are likely to remain at a high level this year.

Demand is the main reason for the rise in cotton prices. China's textile industry has continued the trend of stabilizing and picking up in the second half of last year. In 2010 1-2, the domestic yarn output increased considerably, up 26.52% compared with the same period last year, and the operating rate and order situation of the enterprises were much better than that of the same period last year.

Data show that in 1-2 months, China's textile industry added value increased by 13.4%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points over December. The output of main products of chemical fiber, yarn and cloth increased by 17.1%, 26.6% and 51.2% respectively, and clothing increased by 17.2%, which was 4 percentage points higher than that in December last year.

The delivery value of textile industry increased by 14.3%, 4.2 percentage points higher than that in December last year.

In addition, the demand for cotton downstream products stimulated cotton prices. In February, domestic cotton yarn prices continued to rise. The supply of cotton yarn was tight in the market before and after the Spring Festival, and the market prices continued to rise, leading to a rise in cotton prices along the downstream.

With the cotton price rising, the domestic cotton lint market continued to maintain a strong position yesterday. The supply and demand were obviously tense and the price was rising again. The mainstream price of short fiber has reached 7900-8000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of short staple in Shandong area has reached 8100 yuan / ton, and the price of short staple in other areas has generally risen 50-100 yuan / ton, especially in Xinjiang area, which keeps rising 100 yuan per ton per day, and the mainstream price of short staple has reached 7400 yuan / ton line.

Yesterday, some enterprises increased the price of high-end viscose staple fiber, viscose production enterprises generally started full load, inventory is very small, the price is expected to be strong.

And the price of viscose filament prices rose yesterday. The factory price of Xinxiang egret filament was raised by 1000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of other enterprises began to follow up.

Domestic and international cotton prices have risen recently, but the international cotton prices are growing faster than domestic cotton. The difference between domestic and international cotton prices is reversed, which has a greater impact on cotton imports. The demand for cotton will increase in 3-4 months. In 2010, domestic grade 3 cotton is expected to reach 18 thousand yuan / ton, and cotton enterprises should be prepared.

Recently, the US cotton futures prices continue to rise, the price of the international cotton spot price under the sliding tax has exceeded the domestic cotton price of the same grade.

There are also some who believe that the increase in cotton also includes the following factors:

First of all, futures funds have sped up the rapid rise of cotton commodity futures and gradually passed to the spot market.

The surrounding agricultural products and commodities showed a large upward trend. Cotton has been relatively low and has become the price depression in the commodity market, giving the capital the space to imagine, while speculative funds are expected to make more cotton commodity futures in a large and conscious way in the long term expectations, and the rapid rise of the goods is strengthened.

Second, the rapid rise of oil and flanking by-products has pushed up the purchase price of seed cotton.

As an agricultural product different from cotton, cottonseed oil is more affected by the related edible oil. Since last year, edible oil has been at a high level, and has recently been more innovative. This has led to a rise in the price of cotton oil. The price of cottonseed oil has been maintained at about 8500 yuan / ton from 4000 yuan / ton, and the market price of pulps has also led to the price of short staple. The price of cotton lint in the market is now around 5500 yuan / ton, compared with 2700 yuan / ton in the same period last year, and 4900 yuan / ton at the end of 9 this year.

The rate of increase is very fast, and the momentum is still good.

It is the rise in oil and cashmere prices that has led to a rapid rise in cottonseed prices. At present, the price of domestic wool seeds is basically maintained at 2-2.4 yuan / kg, compared with 1.4 yuan / kg in the same period last year, and 1.85-1.9 yuan / kg at the end of 9.

This alone is enough to raise the purchase price of seed cotton by more than 0.1 yuan / kg.

Not to mention its magnifying effect under the competition of acquisition processing enterprises.

Three, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell the price of seed cotton and increase the cost of lint.

The domestic market, especially cotton growers, is typically "selling or selling but not selling", not to mention the gradual increase of business competition after the capital is in place, the influence of the weather on sales and output, and the loss of cotton farmers' interests in the early market.

All this exacerbated the cotton farmers' expectations of cotton prices and their reluctant sale after the price increase.

Fourth, the recent domestic weather factor has become the main factor in market speculation.

Fifth, the cotton working conference has set high output last year, reducing the imagination of cotton imports this year.

At the September 28th Cotton Conference, the output of 2006 increased by 1 million tons, which seemed to be bad. But under the fixed production conditions, it had compressed the space of cotton imports in the new year, and laid a good foundation for this year's production reduction.

Sixth, we should let the foreign businessmen, middlemen and large textile enterprises purchase a large quantity to make the market guess the bottom price.

Although prices have been sluggish and the sale of lint has not improved in a comprehensive way, the large funds represented by foreign businessmen and some large textile enterprises continue to buy lint in all cotton producing areas, which gives the market full imagination and, to a certain extent, let the market guess the bottom line of the price.

Seventh, the funds of the Agricultural Development Bank are in place, and the competition among enterprises is intensified.

Eighth, the overfall of the previous price laid the foundation for the short-term expansion of the market.

The above factors are captured by the market in the short term and can be imagined for market stimulation.

We can find that in the above factors, the supply and demand of the market itself is not the main reason, but the capital, procurement and cotton farmers' reluctant sale become the mainstream of the market.

This is what I call the price of lint, which is raised by sedan chairs.