PTA Is Expected To Break Through 2010 Million Points

Since December, although the downstream is still in the traditional off-season, especially polyester products prices continue to fall, but in the upper reaches of the push up, the PTA futures main 1105 contract stabilized near 9100 points, began a rebound journey, gradually recovered a number of short-term average, is currently hovering around 10000 points.

In the past three trading days, ten thousand yuan was lost and the rest of the trading days in 2010 were running out.

Domestic policies are briefly vacuum, with new heights rising.

Since the sixth increase in the deposit reserve ratio in the middle of December, the release of the November macroeconomic data and the closure of the central economic work conference, the market has entered the "double vacuum" stage of policy and economic data.

Although inflation was high in November, the central bank's efforts to raise the deposit reserve ratio were lower than market expectations, and in December the CPI dropped significantly. The impact of interest rate expectations on the market has been somewhat digested.

In view of the worries of the two bottoming out of the foreign economy and its own economy, the central bank's interest rate increase has become a dilemma in the current economic environment. Therefore, if inflation pressure does not increase significantly, further tightening policies will not be introduced in the near future.

In the external market, the bulk

In terms of crude oil, although the oil price has recently been reduced to 90 US dollars / barrel, its performance can still be described as "very strong", and the high oscillation situation is obvious.

According to the data released by the American Petroleum Association in December 21st, as of December 17th, the US crude oil inventories decreased by 5 million 800 thousand barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2 million 900 thousand barrels, distillate stocks increased by 16 thousand barrels, and NYMEX crude oil futures closed at a two year high on the 21 th.

Following the northeastern part of Europe and the United States, cold weather has also hit the northeast of China. Cold weather will push up the demand for heating fuel, and oil is expected to continue to operate at a high level.

PTA profits declined significantly, cost support strengthened.

Affected by the strong rise in the price of PX, the profits of the PTA factory showed a more obvious decline. The cash flow of PTA production calculated at spot PX spot has dropped to a low level near the 1100 yuan / ton level, which is rather lower than that in the middle of November.

And the rise of PX, in addition to the impact of crude oil, is mainly due to the tight supply and the super expectation of the contract price in January.

After the substantial expansion of domestic PX capacity in 2009, it was basically in the digestion stage in 2010. It is not expected that the 1 million ton PX plant of the four quarter will be put into operation in the 1 million quarter of the year. The domestic PX production capacity is actually at zero growth this year, and the situation of excess supply of the diesel industry has been greatly improved.

In terms of contract goods, ExxonMobil announced that the Asian contract price in January was $1430 / tonne CFR Asia, while JX Nippon Oil and Energy reported at $1400 / ton, a significant increase of 125 to 155 US dollars / ton compared with December ACP.

On the spot side, as the aromatics company's 820 thousand ton / year PX production plant is still uncertain when it can produce qualified products, and Asia's January contract price is higher than the expected level, it has greatly stimulated traders' bullish sentiment. Most traders do believe that PX market in Asia will probably show a tight supply situation by February. At present, PX is running at a high level in the year, and the cost supporting role of PTA will be strengthened.

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On the PTA side, we added 600 thousand tons of Jialong Petrochemical Company in the first half of this year, and added 600 thousand tons of Hon bang in Jiangyin in the second half of this year.

According to China chemical fiber information network statistics, after 2010, there are still a large number of PTA capacity plans put into operation in China, of which 3 million 700 thousand tons of PTA capacity is expected to be put into operation in 2011, but most PTA installations are put into operation in the middle and late next year.

Downstream

Polyester has undergone continuous adjustment, and the procurement cycle has been reproduced.

In this round of adjustment since the middle of November, pet products are hardest hit. On the one hand, they are affected by the textile off-season. On the other hand, the rapid expansion of polyester level itself is also an important promoter.

With the downward trend of prices, factory production and marketing rates are running low, stock pressure is increasing, and the profits of polyester products have been gradually compressed. Apart from partial fine FDY and POY varieties, cash flow has been maintained. Regular and partial varieties have already suffered losses.

After more than a month of weak running, polyester products are showing signs of gradual bottoming.

Near the end of the month, from the production and marketing point of view, the manufacturers who have already been in the vicinity of the cost line have already recovered somewhat, while the lower prices of the manufacturers are still obvious. In addition, the demand for the polyester factories has begun to pick up, and the market volume has begun to enlarge or usher in a small cycle of replenishment.

Looking at the closing market of PTA futures this year, it seems to be the focus of attention this year.

In the domestic policy vacuum period, the profits of PTA and polyester products are at a low level, and the downward momentum of PTA futures is insufficient. While the monthly closing price is about to be positioned and the end of the month purchasing cycle is coming, PTA is expected to break through 10000 points and give the market a perfect answer.