Rare Silk Fell 5 Days &Nbsp; The Market Outlook Was Confused.

After a long time (nearly a year) after the unilateral rally, raw silk prices suddenly changed in the last few trading days in 2010, and the price trend changed sharply.

From the market of cocoon silk market in Guangxi, raw silk has begun to fall from the beginning of the week. The price of raw silk contracts and September contracts has dropped to around 370 thousand and 350 thousand in March next year, compared with the peak value of 400 thousand. The decline is obvious, with a drop of 5%.

Is this coming to us that the price of silk has completely slipped from the crest?

Cost theory branch

While the price of raw silk is falling, the price of dry cocoon has not loosened, but it continues to slow down. The price of Guangxi dry cocoon is about 106 thousand - 109 thousand. Next year, the price of dry cocoon is over 110 thousand in March. The price of the dried cocoon is basically the same as that of the current 120 thousand.

The purchase price of super high cocoon purchase period is the strongest reason for the high price of dry cocoon. In view of this year's cocoon purchase price, the price of dry cocoon at this price is normal and reasonable. The price of raw silk is fully supported by 300 thousand left and right from the relationship between raw material price and product cost.

I visited some silk reeling enterprises, most of which supported the "cost theory". I think this fall is a "drop back" with the nature of correction after the upsurge.

The long rise makes the reeling factory which has made a lot of money in the second half of the market seems to be very "calm" for this falling market. "This time most of the situation is to digest the callbacks that have gone up too quickly in the earlier period. The ultra-high silk price may have been unable to bear the silk factory, and dare not rush to pick up the goods again.

Besides, the news of bidding for 200 tons of raw silk in India has not been released below, so that the good news of raw silk seems to have been almost digested.

The possibility of high concussion is greater than that of plunging to the bottom.

The decline of cocoon silk price to some extent indicates that the trading parties have changed the expectations of the future. The current raw silk price has been running at about 36 to 370 thousand after falling, but the fall is falling. At this stage, the price can still be at a relatively high price. Recently, the market is still unstable. Many enterprises are waiting for the wait-and-see trend. Raw silk is still priced without market, and the silk reeling plant simply can not be sold. Silk companies can not afford it, but it is undeniable that the cost of silk has risen to the highest level in at least 15 years.

This year, raw silk raw materials are supported by high cost, raw silk prices occupy a high position, and there is still a strong trend.

this time

2010 will soon become a past tense and become a reference history in 2011. When prices have surpassed historical highs, changes in natural conditions, policy adjustments and fundamentals will be particularly sensitive.

The author believes that the most important concern is the implementation of the duty free import 2500 ton duty free raw silk policy launched by India state owned companies in March next year. This news has a substantial impact on the traditional 033 centralized contract and the new cocoon listing price in March next year.

At present, the high price volatility of the silk price causes all parties in the market to make prudent decisions. In order to gain profits, various measures to prevent risks must be adopted properly. Hedging tools with good hedging will help enterprises effectively evade the risk of price fluctuation.