Ye Tan: 2011 Pay The Year &Nbsp; Only Structural Opportunities.

The end of the first round of the feast ended when it was time to pay the bill.

You must pay for your meal.

The real estate boom in the US is owed by investors and US bond buyers in the subprime crisis, while China's investment climax is paid by market players.

Some market participants are immersed in optimism and can not extricate themselves. They have tasted sweetness from the abnormal optimism after the financial crisis.

Sure enough, the price of money in 2010 increased steadily.

If we continue to implement the loose monetary policy, the capital and money market will maintain upward momentum in 2010 and 2011, but the result will be a terrible 2012 ahead of schedule and a sharp reduction in the time of bubble collapse.

The government that looks at the danger of bubbles is determined to squeeze out the market bubble, at least not allow the bubble to continue to grow, so as to spare the time and space to fill the bubble with real wealth.

There is a slight downward trend in money and infrastructure, which is a must for maintaining a balanced balance.

We are desperate to gamble. After the real estate and automobile industry, we need to accelerate the urbanization cluster by rail pportation to boost domestic demand.

In the past two years, the credit has increased by 18 trillion, becoming a variety of infrastructure projects and more and more idle funds. The infrastructure projects, including high-speed rail and subway, are not able to get profits in the short term. The capital bottleneck of half a dozen projects must be solved through market financing. The subway projects in dozens of cities have been approved, and about 200000000000 of investment every year is still conservative.

Therefore, it is certain that infrastructure will not be compressed in a large scale in the next few years.

Policy makers will never sit idly by and the unemployment rate remains high.

Neither too tight nor too loose policy is desirable.

Of course, credit in the next two or three years can not be reduced on a large scale, and about 7 trillion of the credit scale will be 14 trillion in two years.

It is worth our vigilance that the scale of the private bond market and the private capital outside the credit system will be unbearable unless we can coercive the broad currency issue.

In the short term, monetary tightening is a major trend.

On the morning of 1 January, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council in Xilinhaote, Inner Mongolia, said that the central authorities had taken a series of measures to stabilize prices.

We will also put the price stabilization in a more important position.

On December 31, 2010, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, delivered a new year's address on the central bank's website, saying that 2011 is the opening year of the 12th Five-Year plan. The central bank will correctly grasp the new changes and characteristics of the situation at home and abroad and implement a prudent monetary policy.

In the form of urgent dispatch, it issued the notice on further regulating the pfer of credit assets of banking financial institutions. In the notice, the CBRC made it clear that banks should follow the three principles of authenticity, integrity and clean pfer in the pfer of credit assets, and explain the above three principles "that is, the real pfer of assets. The pferred credit assets should include all unpaid principal and interest receivable, which requires the realization of the real and complete pfer of assets and the real and complete pfer of risks". In fact, the CBRC will strengthen its vigilance against the off balance sheet assets, trust and credit assets pfer of banks. CBRC recently

Banks need profits, while the CBRC should supervise risks, check loans for local investment and financing platforms, and ask the trust companies to check the real estate trust business one by one.

It can be believed that the CBRC and the central bank will have a bottom line for the future banks may need to buy.

As a result, the CBRC has tightened capital and provisioning requirements on the basis of the current bank coverage coverage rate of more than 150%.

The CBRC cleaned the yard to destroy the bank's troubles after all. But unfortunately, the CBRC's results of cleaning the yard are exposing problems, but it can not fundamentally improve the efficiency of the capital construction. Therefore, it is likely to become a fuse for investors to continue to pay for infrastructure, local investment and financing platforms and financial institutions.

Of course, new year interbank funds may be a little looser, because banks no longer need to borrow large loans to expand their assets to expand credit and expand their business in the coming year.

Only those who do not understand China's national conditions will be extremely optimistic about the bull market in China over the past two years.

Yes, the parties concerned do need to maintain investor confidence in the securities market, invest funds from the real estate market to securities and venture capital markets, so as to lay the capital for future China's real economy, innovative enterprises and big blue chips.

But in most cases, the stock market will not be the promised land for investors to share the dividends of economic development. Therefore, the drawbacks of the system and short-term payments are all counting on this market.

Starting from the stock market, China's solution to the bottleneck of marketization is also the opportunity for insider traders to make profits.

The best case is that there will be no big distortion in policy and market. We will succeed in paying the bill in the next two years, and the market innovation and the urbanization cluster will have a big breakthrough in stimulating domestic demand, and the taste of bull market will come to us.

In this sense, our market has become a net shell with a good debt growth rate and a good growth. It is the well-being of all investors.

Note: in the new year, you will return to Shanghai only once a day.

I met some friends and listened to some comments.

Seeing the new year's speeches written by Wang Xiaobao in 1996, old words are more moving than new words.

People can get some happiness from destruction, but this kind of happiness can not be compared with the happiness created by construction.

Concerning the village governor's case, there are words from the land system.