The Weak Export Of Foreign Demand Can Not Be Blindly Optimistic &Nbsp; Pressure Or In The First Quarter

Many industry experts said that although 2010

In December 2010, the value of China's exports and imports both doubled.

Customs import and export data released on the 10 day show that China's import and export value is US $295 billion 220 million, an increase of 21.4% over the same period last year (the same below).

Of which, exports of US $154 billion 150 million, an increase of 17.9%, and imports of US $141 billion 70 million, an increase of 25.6%.

The month of December

According to the data of 2010, China

"In 2011, China's trade growth will definitely decline compared with 2010."

In an interview with the economic reference daily, sang Bai Sichuan, President of the Institute of international economics and foreign studies, said that the reason why China's foreign trade performance was so excellent in 2010 was mainly based on the relatively weak foundation in 2009.

Affected by the financial crisis, major importers in 2009 were worried that the world economy would be in a prolonged downturn, reducing inventories and reducing imports of goods.

As the effect of economic stimulus policies gradually emerged in 2009 and December, the demand for personal consumption increased, and overseas importers began to replenish inventory.

"But this year, the above conditions are no longer available, and the decline in foreign trade growth is inevitable," Sang said.

The growth rate of foreign trade is expected to be between 15% and 20% in 2011.

Some analysts believe that the expected increase in exports in 2010 is due to the explosive increase in the demand for Western stocks and the need for inventory replenishment in the late stage after the outbreak of the financial crisis. This behavior is a short-term behavior and can not be followed. There is still a lack of support for the purchasing power of consumers.

"At present, the recovery of external demand, especially the recovery of demand in the European and American markets, will become the biggest uncertainty factor in China's foreign trade in 2011."

Song Hong, director of the International Trade Research Institute of the Institute of world economics and politics of the Academy of Social Sciences, told the economic reference daily.

Li Jian, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, said that although the import and export growth in 2010 exceeded 30%, compared with the 2008 before the financial crisis, the actual growth rate was more than 10% after deducting the price factors.

In addition, as the role of countries in stimulating the economic plan has subsided, the recovery of major developed economies has generally weakened, and the global economy is facing adjustment.

The weakness of demand will be further manifested after Christmas and new year's day.

Liang Yanfen, director of the world economic and Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed that after the second half of 2010, the pace of world economic recovery has slowed down significantly.

Judging from the current situation, the uncertain factors that plagued the US economy can not be alleviated in the short term, and the US economy may further slow down in 2011, and IMF expects its growth rate to be 2.3%.

At the same time, the euro area economy is also affected by debt and employment, and financial market turbulence.

In addition, the differences in the economic development of the euro area member countries are still outstanding, which will cause resistance to the stability and balanced development of the euro area economy.

IMF expects the euro area's economic growth rate to be 1.7% in 2010, the lowest in the developed economies, and only 1.5% in 2011.

"With the end of the economic stimulus measures implemented by the government and the gradual reduction of inventory by enterprises, the slowdown in world economic growth in the second half of 2010 has also had an impact on trade.

The United Nations predicts that the growth rate of world trade will be reduced from 2010 of 10.5% to 6.5% in 2011.

Liang Yanfen said.

In addition to external demand, the domestic supply level will also cause pressure on exports.

Wang Jinbin, Professor of economics at Renmin University of China, told the economic reference daily that with the deepening of the industrial restructuring process, the export of high-energy consumable products related to resources will be subject to more restrictions.

Wang Jinbin warned that there are two points to note. First, the pressure of RMB appreciation will increase this year. In addition to Europe, America and Japan, the emerging market countries will also join forces to exert pressure on the RMB. Two, in the process of economic recovery, the risk of trade war triggered by the exchange rate war is also gradually increasing.

Wang Jinbin believes that, in a comprehensive way, the pressure of exports in 2011 will be highlighted in the first half of the year, especially in the first quarter. If the economic recovery in Europe and the United States is optimistic, China's exports will also improve in the second half of this year.