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Meng Jie Home Textile: The Company'S Base Is Low &Nbsp; The Development Space Is Big.

2011/1/12 9:18:00 60

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Dream Home Textile Company'S Base Profit Forecast

Home textile industry

The development space is large, and the advantage of first hand listing promotes the growth of performance.

With the growth of per capita disposable income and urbanization, the industry will continue to develop rapidly for a long time in the future.

The development of home textile industry is lagging behind, and the Matthew effect is obvious. The home textile brand with rich capital, brand and channel advantages will soon pull away from other small and medium-sized enterprises. Therefore, the short listed dividend effect will become the main driving force for the high growth of the three home textile companies.

Rapid expansion of terminal network has led to high growth of company performance.

company

Before listing

base

The shops are mostly located in the traditional central China, and the extension space is larger.

We predict that the number of terminal retail networks will exceed 2000 by the end of 2010, and the average annual new network will exceed 400 in the 11 and 12 years. This is the key basis for the high growth of performance. The gross profit margin in 10 years has increased considerably, and has remained stable in the 11-12 years.

The proportion of direct operation channels and the increase in product prices led to a substantial increase in gross profit margin in 10 years.

The company reserves raw materials one year ahead of time, resulting in a slight increase in the cost of products sold in the first 10 years and the first half of 11 years. In the future, even if the cost of products continues to rise, we believe that the company has the ability to pfer costs through the increase in prices and maintain the stability of gross margins. Therefore, we expect that the gross margin of Future Ltd will remain close to 40%.

　

Profit forecast

Investment advice

Our Forecast Ltd's 2010-2012 year operating income is 877 million yuan, 1 billion 132 million yuan and 1 billion 489 million yuan respectively. Net profit is 91 million yuan, 123 million yuan and 160 million yuan respectively. Net profit growth rate is 3%, 34.63% and 30.52% respectively. EPS are 0.966 yuan, 0.966 yuan and Yuan Yuan respectively. The recent adjustment of textile and garment retail sector is mainly related to the higher valuation.

After adjustment, the current dynamic P / E ratio has dropped to a reasonable level, raising a rare opportunity to buy.

At present, the A share market brand retail enterprises in 2011 uniformly predict the average price earnings ratio of 35.7 times. In view of the growth of the market space of the home textile industry in several sub sectors, and the stability of the company's future growth, we give the company 35-40 times PE in 2011, corresponding to the stock price of 45.5 yuan -52 yuan, and maintain the buying rating unchanged.

Risk warning

If the price of raw materials continues to rise in the future, it may affect the sales volume or gross profit margin of the company's products. The expansion of the company's stores is slow before the listing, so the continuous rapid expansion of terminal channels in recent years may lead to the risk of management capability of the company.