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Gem Break Or Detonate "28" Conversion

2011/1/12 14:26:00 45

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Last Friday, the newly listed gem stock, Anju Bao (300155, stock bar) fell 2.65% on that day, which makes

Gem

After half a year, new shares broke again on the first day.

In addition, the small and medium-sized board stocks listed on Monday, Haili Mei Da (002537, stock bar) also experienced an embarrassing situation of breaking up, which fell by 1.60% on the same day.

If we look back, the last break of the gem is the July 8, 2010 listing of the League of nations aquatic products (300094, stock bar), while the small and medium-sized board is the September 29, 2010 listing of run bond (002483, stock bar) break.

It is worth noting that after the two breakup of small and medium sized boards and gem, the market index has increased significantly in the near future.

Next we will analyze the two times of the situation and the follow-up trend.

The break of the early July began in June 25th, the new big new material (300080, stock), which fell 3.90% on the first day of the market.

Since then, the market sentiment has been very pessimistic as a result of the index breaking down important support, resulting in a lot of breakage.

By July 6th, there were 4 small and medium sized boards or GEM stocks on the first day of the public sale, including the public sector (002441, stock bar), Jinzhou pipeline (002443, stock bar), intercontinental stock (002440, stock bar), and League of nations aquatic products.

Soon, banks, real estate and other heavyweights led the index to launch a big rebound.

From July 2nd to August 2nd, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 16% in a month.

At the end of September, the breakout began in the Ningbo port (601018, stock bar) of the main board, falling 3.51% on the first day of listing, and then breaking up in September 29th.

After the national day, brokerages, coal, banks, real estate and other heavyweights, and even PetroChina and SINOPEC are rapidly rising.

From September 29th to November 11th, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 23% in one and a half months.

The two breakage quotes share a common feature -- style change.

In fact, the breakup of small and medium sized boards or GEM stocks on the first day of listing is a manifestation of the decline in the enthusiasm of small and medium-sized stocks.

Against this background, capital tends to shift to lower valuer weights, leading to heavyweight and index rises.

In addition to July and September, if we go back further, there will be two breaking UPS in 2010.

About one time around May 18th, there were 6 new shares of Jiaxin silk (002404, stock bar), Qi Xiang Tengda (002408, stock bar) and far east pmission (002406, stock bar).

Although the sustainability of the rally was not very good after the outbreak, we also saw the active figure of the heavyweight.

For example, Poly Real Estate (600048, stock bar), Jindi group (600383, stock bar), Financial Street, Vanke and other real estate leading stock bottom is formed at this time.

In fact, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index also rose 239 points in the two trading days in May 21st and May 24th, or nearly 9%.

Although the time is short, the increase is amazing.

Another outbreak occurred in late January and early February.

Become damp

Slightly different from the last three breakers, one of the main features is that motherboard stocks become the main force on the first day of breakage.

China's Xidian (601179, stock bar), double heavy loading (601268, stock bar) and China's first (601106, stock bar) were broken at this time.

Although there are not many small and medium board stocks on the first day, only Gao Le shares (002348 shares) and Hao Ning Da (002356, stock bar), but there are many small and medium board stocks on the first day of the listing, including the walkers (002351, stock bars) and Ding Tai NEW materials (002352, stock bar).

this time

Break

The post index also rose, and lasted for 2 months, but the increase was only around 5% due to the lack of style conversion.

Now there are more gem and small and medium board shares, or show that the heavyweights and indexes will soon rise.

Last week, the gem composite index and the SME board composite index fell 0.45% and 0.68% respectively, while the heavyweight real estate sector and the banking sector showed outstanding performance, up 6.44% and 4.22% respectively.

From the perspective of capital flow, these two weight plates continue to be favored by funds.

Comparing the trend of small and medium sized stocks and heavyweights recently, there is also the possibility of style switching.

The volume of the small and medium plate index continued to shrink, and the shape was three heavy.

And the heavyweights, despite the news that Chongqing confirmed the introduction of real estate tax, but the recent real estate regulation on the impact of real estate stocks are not large, it is expected that before the full spread of property tax, its impact is relatively small.

In terms of bank refinancing, we believe that the financing way of ABC belongs to the form of bonds, which has limited impact on the stock market, and the financing of Minsheng Bank (600016 shares) should be the end of bank refinancing. It should not be regarded as the beginning of a new round of bank refinancing, and the interpretation of the market is a bit excessive.

Therefore, although the pressure of heavyweights exists, it is not very big.

As banks, real estate and other heavyweights at the bottom of good shape, plus the advantages of valuation, small and medium-sized stocks are no longer active, weight stocks in the late period of leadership index has risen.